I have argued for some time now, that Ted Cruz is the one to watch on the GOP side. While I am no fan of the first term Senator from Texas, he has stayed below the media radar for weeks now, quietly amassing a war chest of super pac money, and building a large campaign organization focused on getting the vote out in Iowa, South Carolina and the SEC primaries of March 1st. Now it's producing results. Cruz has shot ahead in Iowa in two polls just released. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/support-for-cruz-triples-in-iowa-216720
It will get interesting if he can pull off Trump supporters, else it will get very contentious in the next few months. A Cruz vs Trump match in the primary would be very entertaining, that no fiction writer could ever match.
The first candidate to offer a credible plan to *really* reduce the size, power and cost of government can easily win most GOP primary contests.
This particular poll and the Monmouth poll has a different candidate "surging" every month only to fall away. Fiorina, Carson, etc....have all "surged" and fell only in these two polls but not the more respected ones. Gee, I wonder why? - - - Updated - - - Last Month it was Ben Carson....when will Rubio get his turn?
And it has a history of being very accurate. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151 The fact that it showed variable candidates surging over the past few months is a reflection of the fickle nature of the right wing audience, and the shallow game show nature of the primary campaign "silly season". The silly season has passed, the Carson bubble burst at the end of the third quarter, and Rubio won't get a real surge, unless someone dumps a lot of cash into his campaign in the hopes that he can stop Cruz. Trump is on his way out. He has no real campaign organiztion. His mugging for the cameras and his night club comic insult act won't sustain a real Presidential campain. He also won't spend his own money.
That's the point. Trump almost never attacks Cruz. Trump is a bully, and bullies never attack people they are afraid of. They only hit the people they think they can push around, like Meghn Kelly!
That obnoxious self centered b**** had it coming and if you think attacking her was out of line because she is a woman you are not being PC.
There was an article a few days ago about Cruz and Iowa. Actually it was the information inside the poll itself. It state approximately half of the Republican Iowa Caucus goers are evangelicals and it is within this group that Cruz has his advantage over Trump. Cruz was winning that group 30-18 over Trump. It is this one group that gave Iowa to Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012 although we didn't find out Santorum actually won Iowa until the primaries were about over. Still Cruz trails Trump by around 20 points in New Hampshire. But about 70% of New Hampshire Republican Primary voters have yet to make up their mind or say they could change their minds. That is a lot of flux. Perhaps thrown on top of an Iowa victory for Cruz, who knows. Cruz trails Trump by 15 in South Carolina today, but could momentum carry over to that state? The question to be answered is how much of Trump's support is solid, carved into stone and how much of it is soft, written in sand? We'll find out in a couple of months.
That is why one should use RCP averages. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
Yeah, and most of the sheeple that called her names for asking Trump the sort of questions the audience tuned in to see are still slavishly devoted to Fox.
Take a look at the Cruz graph in your link. It's also about time to start looking at the state by state polls, too. They're the only ones that are going to count in seven weeks.
Huckabee and Santorum got the death sentence from Iowa so why should Trump be wetting his pants about a little surge from Cruz?? I like Cruz and wouldn't mind seeing him as VP with Trump. Cruz has never attacked trump and Trump likes Cruz so I expect very little fire from either of them so that they can team up to after Hillabeast and WHO? Sharpton?? Maybe the Hispanic punk that was mayor of San Antonio - Julian Castro? JC is the son of Jesse Guzman and Rosie Castro. MOD EDIT - Rule 3
Fox lost me for a month and I still don't watch MK as much as I did but after she was called out for attacking Trump she made some changes to her appetence and to her attitude. That whole thing was orchestrated by the producers to see if they could get a fight started but they hurt Fox more than the hurt Trump.
Frankly, I have always believed that Trump's support was mostly written in sand. I'll wager (safely, I might add) that this time next year, you won't find many conservatives willing to even admit that they supported Trump. Cruz's uptick appears to be entirely at the expense of Ben Carson's imploding campaign. http://www.270towin.com/news/2015/1...ding-to-benefit-of-cruz_157.html#.Vm2MKeJWHOA I don't think a Cruz loss in New Hampshire will have much effect. South Carolina is the bellweather for this season, mainly because it is eight days before the SEC primary. Trump has one of his largest ground operations in South Carolina, although most of it is recently recruited, and is dwarfed by Cruz's evangelical charged machine, which has been on the ground there for months. Cruz is certainly betting on evangelicals. He is one, and his speeches are sermons, for the most part. (he is a very good speaker). A candidate as openly tied to evangelicals as Ted Cruz is is unlikely to become President. Which brings us back to New Hampshire. Cruz probably won't win New Hampshire, but that won't affect his ground game going into the red state primaries. But it will provide a glimpse of the way in which the Republican party has fractured, and will continue to fracture as the election season progresses. But a candidate as openly tied to the evangelical movement as Cruz is, is unlikely to become President.
You made my point. That's exactly what the ratings showed. OF course, the producers (that would be Roger Ailes, who calls every shot on Fox) orchestrated the show. Ailes knew he was about to get bigger ratings then he had ever seen, and from far more diverse audience than the angry white retirees that make up most of his normal audience. The debates are game shows, and the Fox debate set the tone. It was the best produced game show of all time, and the objective was to try and blow up Trump. At the time, Ailes was favoring John Kasich, and was hoping that he would break out of the pack. You may recall that Ailes bumped Rick Perry from the main stage and added Kasich to it just days before the event. Kasich was a Fox employee for years after he left Congress, and Ailes helped bankroll his run for Ohio governor. Trump knew, and expected that he was going to be the target. And he knew that he could intimidate Fox, because Trump's audience is also Fox's audience. He has no such impact on CNBC, which largely ignored his post debate ranting. But Fox's audience is nothing if not loyal. So, after a few days, the people who were cursing out Meghn Kelly after that debate all drifted right back in front of the televisions.
The key is "credible" and "plan". So far I have not heard anyone of the 16 or 18 GOP wannabees over even a plan much less one that is credible. John Kasich who at least was a Congressman and now a governor has demonstrated that he can at least govern and has taken steps to reduce costs. Of course he made the grand "mistake" of being in favor of at least not being bat scat crazy against every Democratic program so a sizable portion of self style so called "conservative" Republican want to lynch him. The hardest thing to do in cutting the size and cost of government is to get the majority to agree which parts, programs, and policies of government are to be cut. It's like the NIMN ( not in my neighborhood) syndrome in that everyone wants secure prisons to keep criminal bacteria in but OMG not in my neighborhood.
I'm not a die hard Trump supporter but I would vote for him, or any of the candidates, over Hillary. In the beginning I wasn't sold on Cruz. But he is looking better every day. Too bad getting the Evangelical support will hinder him. I have wondered who Trump would pick for a running mate if he were to get the nomination. If it is one of the remaining candidates, I mostly think it would be Cruz. Then sometimes I think he will surprise everyone and pick Bush or even Fiorina. As to the Fox debate, I was very disappointed. It wasn't the fact that it was Trump that they attacked, it was the whole attitude they had that set the atmosphere. I wanted to hear what the candidates had to say. I do still watch mainly Fox because the other options leave a lot to be desired.
It's funny. A freshman Senator with very little business experience, no international experience and no military experience. A very divisive figure, not only with Democrats but among his own party. Will have no support in Congress. Is all this sounding familiar? Yet some Republicans are OK with this. Whatever.
The downfall of Trump has been predicted from the beginning. So far it hasn't happened. Every week someone comes out with some reason why Trump is on the decline. Sounds like wishful thinking. I do not get why he has remained so popular. I also do not get why democrats seem so confident he would lose to Hillary yet seem to bash him like the Republicans do. You would think if they were so confident in Hillary they would support a Trump nomination.
