Solutions to Automation

Discussion in 'Labor & Employment' started by Guest03, Aug 4, 2015.

  1. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Do you have any evidence to support any of that?

    WPA 2.0 projects need not be "make work". For there is plenty of real work needing to be done as it is.
    We could employ scores of people simply maintaining and or bringing our current crumbling infrastructure up to standard.
    Beyond that, there are a number of additional societal improvements we could be making which would yield real benefit.
    That, by definition, would not be "make work", as "make work" implies a job which yields no benefit,
    eg: digging a ditch just to fill it up. However, for WPA 2.0, I would think we'd ask workers to also lay down some new Ethernet before filling that ditch.

    .....you mean, due to spending and employing people for the war effort....

    -Meta
     
  2. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Wha??! Of course it does....

    Every task that you can get a machine to do is then one less thing you need a human to do.
    At times, there may be extra jobs available the displaced can fill into,...some types of automation may even create new types of jobs,
    but generally, truly efficient automation does not create as many jobs as it displaces. And eventually, you end up with fewer and fewer jobs needing to be done by humans,
    and the remaining ones (save perhaps for a small few related to building new or maintaining existing automation) will predictably pay less and less, and be of lower quality and need.

    I think I get what you're trying to say here,...but the way you wrote it doesn't make sense.

    First of all,...if automation were to eliminate all the jobs, its certainly reasonable to think that some, maybe even the vast majority of folks,
    would shortly thereafter find themselves without money, given our current system......but the money wouldn't simply up and vanish into thin air.
    That money would still exist,...it would simply be tied up in the hands of a select few resource owners who, due to automation, no longer had any need to spend it.

    -Meta
     
  3. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes, as far as preparedness goes, increasing the availability of education and training is an important step, especially in the near term.
    But again, what happens when even those high-skill education-requiring jobs become automated?

    -Meta
     
  4. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If I make a great pie, you may value it highly. If I make an even better pie... you might prefer the new pie. You may not value that first pie as highly as you did when it was the best pie available.




     
  5. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    If we're just talking about automating the making of today's pie, then the quality of that pie tomorrow doesn't change necessarily.
    Sure...it could improve. Perhaps the pie also becomes more nutritious, or maybe it just tastes better. But if the pie itself doesn't change,
    simply altering how it gets created through automation does not affect its value (for better or worse).....It, again, simply makes it least costly to create more.

    -Meta
     
  6. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As long as people want a better pie tomorrow than they have today, I doubt we'll all eat free pie. Yesterday's pie will become less valuable each time society advances to meet that expectation.



     
  7. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Again, I wouldn't go so far as to say that pie becomes less valuable......it just becomes less costly to make.

    -Meta
     
  8. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Does this look like a success story. Unemployment went down from ~21% to ~ 15% but then back up to ~18% just before the start of WWII.

    [​IMG]

    Also notice where the National Debt really started to take off.

    [​IMG]

    In 1927 a group of US citizens went to the Soviet Union to see first hand the miracle of a centrally planned economy. Included in this group were many who would serve in the FDR government and form policy based on the seeming economic powerhouse (they were faking the data) in eastern Europe. Among those were Rexford Tugwell, Paul Douglas, Stuart Chase, and many others who were very impressed with what they saw and implemented policies based on the Soviet system in the US. Roosevelt acknowledged below. Obviously FDR was implementing economic policy based on Soviet communism and national socialism. This had nothing to do with the evil perpetrated by Hitler and Stalin.

    What we were doing in this country were some of the things that were being done in Russia and even some of the things that were being done under Hitler in Germany. But we were doing them in an orderly way.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt, October 5 private conversation with Harold Ickes, quoted in Lewis S. Feuer, "American Travelers to the Soviet Union, 1917 -- 1932: The Formation of a Component of New Deal Ideology," American Quarterly 14, no. 2, pt. 1 (Summer 1962), p. 147, citing Harold L. Ickes, The Secret Diaries of Harold L. Ickes: The First Thousand Days, p. 104.


    National Recovery Administration - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Agricultural Adjustment Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Farm Security Administration - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



    Sources for much more detail are the books "Liberal Fascism" by Jonah Goldberg, "The Forgotten Man" by Amity Shlaes, and "The New Deal & Modern American Conservatism" by Lloyd and Davenport. These contain fascinating discussions on how the Progressives in charge in the 30's were enamored by the apparent economic successes of the Soviet Union, Germany, and Italy.

    Gov spending to stimulate the economy has been disproven - most recently by the failure of the Obama stimulus which didn't. It is economic growth of the private sector that funds infrastructure projects. If gov policy were focused on economic growth and wealth creation real (U6) unemployment would be much closer to U3 as it typically is. The Obama economy is limping along with per capita gdp growth rate of ~ 1%, U6 at ~ 10%, and the real median family income ~ $1500 less than at the end of the recession in 2009.

    But at the end of WWII when the war effort spending stopped the economy boomed. Because of the capital investment from the war effort. The gov had no choice but to redirect the national income away from consumer goods and into war goods. But the economy did not return to the depression state of 15% unemployment in 1940.
     
  9. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They won't be because bosses still like to have people to boss around. For the sake of argument, however, we can all become reality tv stars.
     
  10. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're thinking is too linear. If a machine replaces a textile worker, it does not mean that there isn't other productive things that worker could be doing instead.



    If I have no money for food, then there is no reason to have a machine cooking McDoubles. The problem isn't that machines replace people so much as it is the machines replace income and FICA tax streams with which the government can put people to work doing other things.
     
  11. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    *shrug* Then eat yesterdays pie. Value it just as highly when better pies become available and buy or sell it at that value as long as you can find like minded people.

    Others may prefer the better pie offered tomorrow. They may value the better pie more highly and value the older version less than they did when it was the best kind of pie you could buy.

    You are free to value a pie however you like and the rest of us are free to do the same. Amish may value indigo dye the same as they did a hundred years ago. They just don't ask the rest of the world to stand still when they do.



     
  12. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Heh, the worst that happens is that we offer jobs that no one takes and end up not spending the money?

    I'll admit, that's a good one!
     
  13. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Hmm,...taking a skyrocketing unemployment rate, disrupting its rise, and bringing it down from 21% down to 18%?....
    Yeah, I'd consider that pretty successful, especially considering it continued to drop afterwards. Could the recovery have been better/faster?
    Sure...But lets not fool ourselves into thinking that an imperfect set of policies somehow automatically equates to failure.

    Let us also consider what it was that immediately preceded the second spike in unemployment you were referencing,
    commonly referred to by economists as the Recession of 1937–38 or the "Roosevelt recession". That increase followed a number of policy changes made by the Roosevelt administration for FY 1937,....namely; new restrictions on the money supply via gold inflow sterilization...and drastic cuts to WPA spending/employment and similar drastic cuts to other New Deal programs.

    And sure enough, just as soon as those policy changes were reversed in 1938, restoring much of the WPA/New Deal spending that had been cut, and easing up on monetary restrictions, the recovery rebounded! This is plain to see in the chart below (which is a little clearer than the one you posted).
    Also note that spending for WWII doesn't begin in earnest prior to 1940 and that the U.S. doesn't actually enter the war itself until 1941.
    You can see from the chart that the rate of unemployment dropping certainly increases during those years,
    but its also clear that we were well on our way down even before that.

    [​IMG]

    -Meta
     
  14. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    'nother clearer image posted below. (also, slightly different metric, but should be appropriate)

    ....Now, obviously the main contributor to debt during that time period was WWII spending. Debt clearly spikes in the years following our entering the war.
    Much of the rest is due to the simple fact of the U.S. having gone through a Great Depression.

    Its reasonable however for one to assume that New Deal would have at least some contribution as well, but if it does it barely even registers.
    Note that New Deal programs didn't begin being implemented into 1933, and looking at the chart we can see that debt as a percentage of GDP was
    already on the rise from the post WWI low before that point,...and interestingly enough actually appears to level off afterwards until WWII.

    [​IMG]

    Are you trying to set up some sort of Guilt By Association Argument?

    -Meta
     
  15. danielpalos

    danielpalos Banned

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    Unemployment compensation that clears our poverty guidelines on an at-will basis in any at-will employment State.
     
  16. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    As a percentage of GDP and compared to the WPA and other such programs of past, the Obama stimulus was small potatoes.
    Of course, we could definitely be in a better place than we are now. But to somehow suggest that economic spending has been dis-proven...
    ...or that the stimulus was a failure.........well,........I believe that data begs to differ... we may have a ways to go,
    but we're certainly better off than were were before the stimulus:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Of course, and the reason was simple. All the spending and employment that went on during and immediately before the war allowed people (in the U.S. at least) from all classes to build up significant savings. Notice how it spikes during WWII and then gradual dwindles leading up to the Great recession.

    [​IMG]

    -Meta
     
  17. danielpalos

    danielpalos Banned

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    better aqueducts, better roads, and more well regulated militia is what we need.
     
  18. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Lol!

    As it is, many already try and fail to become T.V. sensations. I doubt adding a huge amount of extra competition and having fewer people with money to fund the broadcasts will make it any easier. It might workout for a few of us though, but then again, there's only so much T.V. a small handful of resource owners can watch.....and God help us all once someone invents a robot that can act.....

    Just to reiterate,...the real problem in such a scenario wouldn't be that people wouldn't have work to do,
    but that those on the lower rungs of society would be cut off from their means of survival.

    -Meta
     
  19. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    As opposed to being too convoluted? ;)

    Like I said, there may be extra jobs available the displaced can fill into,...some types of automation may even create new types of jobs,
    but generally, truly efficient automation does not create as many jobs as it displaces. And eventually, you end up with fewer and fewer jobs needing to be done by humans,
    and the remaining ones (save perhaps for a small few related to building new or maintaining existing automation) will predictably pay less and less, and be of lower quality and need.

    So yes, there is a pool of other productive things that displaced workers can do,
    but that pool gets smaller and smaller with every efficiency increasing innovation,
    as well as less valuable and less sporting to the worker save for a few exceptions.

    Well, no reason for you personally, having no money, and no food ingredients for the machine to use,...
    however, the resource owner can still make use of it. They access the food, and they can then use the machine to make McDoubles,...
    ...not for you of course,...since you have no money, or anything else the resource owner wants,...but for themselves.
    If you were their personal McDouble maker before, they use the machine in place of you. And supposing the fields and stock that produce
    all the beef and trimmings of these McDoubles are also all tended too through automation, leaving you with no alternative jobs to take up,
    then....if you were dependent upon the proceeds of that field to somehow reach you in one way or another,...then you're pretty much screwed unless the owner decides to give you a charity handout at that point.....and that's really where the problem lies.

    ^ This is pretty spot on imo.

    -Meta
     
  20. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    I'll eat whichever pie I please, tyvm!....;)

    No one (at least no one here) is asking anyone to stand still or forego technology and or technological progress as the Amish do.

    -Meta
     
  21. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

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    Yep, just the mere thought that scores of folks wouldn't immediately be lining up to take those jobs in an economy such as ours is pretty hilarious! :D
     
  22. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is an infinite amount or reality TV possibilities with fiber and the internet.

    Again, back to the linear logic you are using. If a machine is deployed that replaces 10 employees with 3 employees, you see that is killing 7 jobs. I see it as freeing up 7 people to do something else productive. The long-term economic outlook indicates that the problem many nations will face is the lack of available future labor. This technology trend will allow them to increase capacity with the workerforce they have. It is just a matter of putting people together with skill sets together with jobs. America, for instance, have a forecast of a shortfall of low skill labors. The problem isn't technology killing jobs. It is technology making people too comfortable to want to work. That will change when they are starving.
     
  23. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Exactly - it is productivity increasing that drives our standard of living increasing. Fewer humans are required to create the wealth needed for subsistence leaving more humans to provide services. But to be capable of doing the new service jobs there is a greater need for a better and better educated and trained workforce. The problem is that our educational system and cultural recognition of the need for the young to become well educated and trained in useful disciplines is not in synch with this new reality. The most important civil right going forward is to provide adequate education and guidance to the young so as they are able to support themselves in the future. Otherwise they will be living the basement playing video games or worse. Enabling this behavior is bad enough but refusing to provide the wary out of the spiral is worse.
     
  24. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think that is only part of the equation to having a robust workforce. we also need to recognize that there are a lot of people who will not be "well-educated" who will be needed for blue collar work. It is a tough thing for kids and parents to say to them, "Okay, you won't ever be rich or have a proper career, but here is how we can make little Johnny economically relevant over his lifetime." Teaching kids to become computer programmers is one thing and probably much easier than teaching 100 other kids how to labor or survive working in the service sector and have a decent life and sustained employment, especially in more rural/small urban areas. We need better access to free or low cost continuing education and working adults who were brought up with a desire and ability to periodically learn new things. I am thinking that the better way to do that is some sort of temp employment agency type situation that manages the workers for whom they work who are incentivized to make sure their worker who is making pasta today is going to be able to also weld 5 years from now, and repair machinery 5 years after that.
     
  25. Taxpayer

    Taxpayer Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I have a lot of respect for the Amish lifestyle. Forgoing advances in society, new solutions, requires a lot of discipline and grants a kind of stability and serenity few societies can offer. You can do the same job you did yesterday, and know you will have the same lifestyle tomorrow.

    That said, I'm with you. I have ambitions that drive me to want better solutions tomorrow than I have today. All those advances won't come from my efforts alone, but I need to participate in society advancing if I want to benefit from it. Society is happy to offer me a better pie each day, but I have to do more for the better pie. If I want a better solution tomorrow, I need to put more into society today than I did yesterday. Those who don't advance, will find their contributions less valuable as time goes forward.

    It's like the burger flipper. Originally the processes that role is a part of were innovative. As they became better understood, he was seen as an artisan. As they refined further, his contribution was that of a moderately skilled worker, then a laborer, then a kid doing chores, and now the process can be fully automated and that role offers no contribution. As time moved forward, we came up with better solutions and so we valued the solutions of yesterday less and less... until they hit zero value. Same as the wheat grinder.

    [​IMG]

    If you want to be a contributing part of an advancing society, you need to advance with it. If you don't you'll either be carried along by charity or perhaps left behind. And if you don't want to be part of that advancement... it's your choice. The Amish lifestyle... there have been days when I wonder if it doesn't offer more joy and contentment than other options. They value the wheat grinder same as they always have.


     

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