First Poll since Trump Admitted Sexually Assaulting Women... Hillary up 11 pts!

Wow, this is just an absolute beatdown. In a two-way race Hillary is up 14 pts, in a 3 way, Hillary is up 11 pts in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

 

Sounds about right.

Trump has always been toast, and never had a real chance.

Yup. 52-38 sounds about right.

 

Wow even Rasmussen has her up 7. Are they already doing their election "correction" where they stop showing the republican up and start being honest?

 

The two most disappointing things...

that trump still will end up with 30-something % of the popular vote
that stoner Johnson will get way more than he deserves... his brain is crispy fried

 

I wonder how long it will take the LAT poll to catch up to reality?

 

Haha, that means Hillary is clearly up double digits. Rasmussen is a guaranteed 4-5 pts off towards the Republican candidate.

 

More important than a single poll in my mind is the current 4-way:



A move from a less than 1 point split to a 5.1 split in the space of a little over 3 weeks should be raising a huge red flag in the Trump campaign.

 

I looked into those polls and they polled like 600 people, in which 60% were democrats.

These polls mean absolutely nothing - especially when your polling strategy is straight up biased, not only that but when 600 people are polled.

 

Are you still thinking Trump can win?

 

I don't think you understand how random polling works, lol.

 

Those comments were made after a showing of Paul Verhoven's classic film Basic Instinct and were obviously taken out of context.

Its a vast Left Wing conspiracy!!!

 

Trump is going to destroy Hillary.....

I have news for you - I used to do polling and I can tell you that polls mean absolutely NOTHING..... Even if Trump was up in polls I would still say the same thing, however all these polls have been biased in Hillary's favor... They've been polling more democrats than republicans, not only that but their sample sizes are pathetic. The United States is a population around 300 million - in what universe is it useful to poll 1,000 people and then draw a conclusion - not only that but poll more democrats than republicans to boot.

Hillary Clinton has ZERO chance at winning.

Funny how Trump is selling out professional sports arenas (that hold10,000-15,000 people) and not everyone even gets in but Hillary Clinton has a difficult time drawing enough people to fill a high school gym.

Hillary is going to get destroyed......

Hillary has very few actual supporters. The majority of people hate her and are voting against Trump not for Hillary. I highly doubt Hillary Clinton gets more than 30% of the popular vote.

Hillary isn't going to win - it's not possible when you look at all the factors.

 

Almost certainly an outlier, and I have to repeat my usual caution against highlighting any single poll. But definitely eye-catching. IF it is the first wave of a trend, then Trump's collapse could well spell doom for Republicans further down ballot.

 

I don't think it's an outlier at all. Heck, even Rasmussen has Hillary up 7 pts now.

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe you should listen to the other voices in your head, lmao.

 

You used to "do polling" and yet don't understand how a sample size of 1,000 can be statistically valid? Or how sample size is completely unconnected to the size of the population being sampled?

I smell ... bull(*)(*)(*)(*).

 

Polling isn't exactly "random"..... Trust me I used to work as a pollster.

Certain demographics are targeted when polling.....

I have zero faith in polls being one that used to do them.

 

No one could actually believe that.

Are you just trolling?

Or auditioning for Last Comic Standing?

Carry on.

 

the actual poll is most likely accurate. The problem is the sample was taken from a list of child molesters and rapists LOL.

Lets take a poll that consists of Rape victims and see the results.

 

I don't trust you at all, lol. You sound really crazy.

 

You must be looking at a different poll than I am.

Strong Democrat: 26%
Not Very Strong Democrat: 8%
Independent/Lean Democrat: 9%
Strictly Independent: 12%
Independent/Lean Republican: 10%
Not Very Strong Republican: 7%
Strong Republican: 19%
Other: 5%
Not Sure: 4%

That adds up to 43% Democrat and 36% Republican.

 

1,000 people isn't valid at all.

1. 1,000 people isn't enough to get any sort of statistics when 75,000,000 people will be voting.

2. I could care less how many people are polled when you factor in the polling bias that IS absolutely indeed used by polling agencies.

3. Polls don't matter - what does matter is how you frame your poll questions. So the poll automatically becomes useless when these polling agencies are looking to promote one idea or another or one candidate or another...

Look, I didn't only do polling for politicians - I did polling for all kinds of ideas or even products..

I mean a good example of how useless polling is was in Florida where they had Hillary 10 points ahead of Bernie, yet Bernie won by 10 points.....

The polling without question is rigged in Hillary's favor (as most polls are rigged to begin with).....

 

Sorry, but that's the same garbage I heard about the polls from conservatives 4 years ago. It was wrong then, and it's wrong now.

 

You don't see that as a statistical advantage when polling 600-1,000 people? That is a 7 point difference - that is a lot.

 

Again, what part of "sample size is unconnected to the size of the population being sampled" do you not understand?
http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml

The MoE on a sample size of 1,000 people is about 3.2%, regardless of whether you're sampling 1 million people or 900 million people.

SURE you worked in polling. Sure you did.

That's why you look at the methodologies. But the polling AVERAGE has a pretty good track record, since the bad ones tend to cancel each other out. That's why I look at the average, not any single poll.

Yes, a crap poll can lead to crap results. But your blanket assertion that all polls are poorly designed is baseless.

Er, Hillary won Florida by a landslide....
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida

What fantasy world are you living in?

 

More people identify as Democrats than identify as Republicans, and Democrats have had a turnout advantage in every election since 1956.