What a difference a day makes!

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by alexa, Mar 14, 2017.

  1. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So yesterday Nicola started on the road for Indy 2. Within hours Michelle O’Neill had said Northern Ireland should have a vote to leave the UK and join the Republic asap. Ah Brexit and English Nationalism - looks like you may well get what you want.

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/03/14/border-crossing-2/

    Two early to say how it will go but there is a very definite possibility now that Brexit may see England and Wales all that is left of the UK with Scotland and Ireland remaining part of the EU and hence in close contact.
     
  2. Diablo

    Diablo Well-Known Member

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    Scotland would probably have to apply to join the EU after leaving the Union, so not automatic.
     
  3. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes I know that which I think is why Nicola wants the vote before Britain leaves the EU.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
  4. Diablo

    Diablo Well-Known Member

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    I think the authority for the referendum comes from London, and May won't give it. As for a united Ireland, I can't see the Unionists agreeing.
     
  5. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well we shall see on that, ;) I would though be surprised if she tried that and haven't seen anyone suggest seriously she would. Rather that she might want to try and chose the timing and the wording of it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2017
  6. Diablo

    Diablo Well-Known Member

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    We are in unchartered waters, for sure. One of the shortcomings of democracy is that a bad choice by a leader can have catastrophic effects. Cameron's decision for the EU referendum has now placed the entire union in jeopardy, and threatened Britain with economic disaster. Blair took the country into an illegal war which cost countless lives. Bush also was responsible for that war. Thatcher just about got away with the Falklands. Too much power in the wrong hands.
     
  7. see you next tuesday

    see you next tuesday Active Member

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    I think the whole thing is dead interesting. I voted to remain but i'm quite excited that we're leaving.
    I find ill informed panic quite amusing and there is going to be lots and lots of it over the coming years.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017
  8. unbiased institute

    unbiased institute Member

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    Its extremely unlikely to happen and if it were then it really would be economic suicide.
    I don't really see the point in doing so anyway and particularly when there's nothing to gain
     
  9. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The biggest shortcoming to democracy is when it is not protected and in this I think Blair has a massive amount of blame.


    https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourki...new-epoch-for-democratic-resistance-has-begun

    I was listening late last night to the Lords. They were vicious towards both Scotland and NI who apparently are talking about having their referendum on the same day as Scotland. ;) They were suggesting as you said that May would not allow it and that Nicola Sturgeon had better get it through her head that May ruled the people of Scotland. They also kept claiming that the people of Scotland did not want it. In reality at the moment it is about even wanting and against. I would think a Referendum would increase the wanting.

    When polls were showing yes was beginning to go ahead in 2014 and the leaders came up here they said that if people wanted to stay in the EU, the only way they could guarantee that would be by voting to stay. People did vote on that. Some of them were Internationalists and many of them have now changed their mind about their vote. The situation for Scotland as part of the UK clearly has structurally changed since then and just such a change was what Nicola Sturgeon said in her election campaign would be a reason for another referendum so I do not think May really has any point. What would happen if she tried that I do not know but it would kind of make a fool of her idea of democracy with which she is taking the entire UK out of the EU on a hard brexit on the vote of only 37% of the electorate without any white paper saying it was going to be a hard Brexit and where a swing of around 2% would put it the other way and of course where Scotland voted far higher to remain than England voted to leave. It still may be that this may result in May giving up her idea of a hard exit which the whole of the UK could benefit from but to date she has refused to listen to Nicola.

    At the 2014 indyref, Ireland did not want Scotland to win as they believed that the UK would think it was not worth their while paying for them (they get the highest through Barnet) Ireland imagined having to take in a bunch of really angry Unionists. This time though it could be different. NI unionism I am told is largely towards Scotland and so without a Scotland in the UK not really any point. In addition if they are going to start getting border controls again who knows what may happen so it is not impossible that they will decide that under the circumstances the best thing would be to go for a United Ireland in close cooperation with Scotland.

    Obviously the economy is something that does need to be looked into but there is no reason that Scotland need act in the same way as she has been as part of the Union. I would hope that we would use a move towards Independence as also a move towards getting rid of corporate power and would hope Scotland would work with DiEM 25 to democratise the EU.

    Next week Scotland will put a bill to Parliament which will be passed on having another Referendum and then May will need to start responding properly. As I am hearing it as long as this is with the agreement of rUK Scotland could then if she votes for Independence seamlessly be accepted as a State in the EU- obviously rUK's agreement takes away Spain's concerns.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2017
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  10. Diablo

    Diablo Well-Known Member

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    Interesting post. A united Ireland would remove one major problem area, for sure. Maybe it could be sold to the Unionists.

    As far as Scotland is concerned, maybe the Europeans would soften their stance, buy off Spain for example, and fast-track the Scots.
     
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  11. Latherty

    Latherty Well-Known Member

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    Yes, Its a good time for Scotland to weedle some pledges out of EU members as the latter will be seeking to weaken the UK's bargaining position.

    Once the UK are out, Scotland is just another basket-case economy for the Germans to carry.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  12. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Your wish.

    While this is not the route I would choose it has been suggested that Scotland could gain well financially from Independence

    Brexit makes the economics of Scottish independence much more attractive

    While obviously political reasons are the strongest for wanting to get away from a perpetual far right Tory Government aligned to Trump, we need to consider what is in our best interests economically as well. ;)



     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  13. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What a hoot it would be if Sturgeon gets her way on independence, then when she applies for membership of the EU they tell her to eff off? :roflol: Or what would be even more of a hoot is they allow her to join then she finds the Scotch can't afford the membership fees. [​IMG] :mrgreen:
     
  14. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    check out the post above yours
     
  15. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No, because the Scotch accent does my head in. I mean how can anybody make two syllables out of 'world'!

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  16. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    May declares there should not be an indyref at the moment - she didn't actually say she would stop it being done by Section 30, still keeping things open to see how they flow I think, she simply said now was not the time - having got it wrong that Scottish people would not know what Brexit would be like, as the intent is to have the vote once we know the details of the Brexit deal or no deal. Commentators imagine this is an intent to butter up the Scottish people and make them think they can get one later believing their own propaganda that the Scottish people do not want it. The SNP respond on twitter by asking people to sign their support for Scotland's democratic right to decide their future.
    https://twitter.com/thesnp
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  17. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    Real politik.
    The UK is Scotlands primary trade market.

    If the UK leaves the EU, Scotland would have to join the UK anyway.

    The same is true and more relavent in Ireland.
    The UK is Irelands primary export market. If we leave, and we decide to offer Ireland a trade deal that Ireland cannot get the EU to accept. Ireland must leave the EU. What else can they do?
     
  18. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You have no idea of the sort of deals Scotland may chose do to as an Independent country. I left a link earlier. I have a suspicion England is not going to have all that much to offer.


    What?

    Seriously you think anyone is going to want to do deals with the UK after it comes out with it's hard Brexit - something it went for without determining the economic fall out 'very robustly!'

    Dairy and meat would be seeing taxes of 30-40%


    http://www.964eagle.co.uk/news/uk-n...ct-on-economy-of-no-brexit-deal-admits-davis/

    You can see two minutes of the Ben/Davis Q&A here

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/842161838741696513

    I was going to start a thread on that.

    It is early days. May is trying to say No but likely we will wait till we have discussed everything and heard all the details then of course the North of England will be wanting to become part of Scotland again. ;)
    https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp...want-north-of-england-to-be-part-of-scotland/
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  19. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    You may hate the UK and wish to end all trade with us, but the Scottish don't.


    they only have one choice. The EU doesn't want their meat and dairy. Only themselves and the English do.
    If they wish to deal, they will deal with us. No other choices are available to them.
    The tax rates the EU force them to apply to the UK, (in order to protect French Farmers) will force them out of business with us. Their primary market.


    An independent Scotland cannot choose a trade agreement with the EU in favour to a trade agreement with the UK because the UK is it's biggest trading partner and the EU is not.
    They can't choose the EU over the UK and not lose most of their trade.

    Realpolitik.

    So yes I can easily predict what kind of deals they will make.
    We all can.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  20. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I was pointing out that you are premature in your fantasies and the likelihood is that when the hard Brexit deal is done, there may not be that much of a reason for anyone to want to do business with England, that the Brexiteers took the UK into this position without even bothering to check out what the financial impact would be. That is something every one in the UK is going to suffer from.
    Are you drinking Baff. You are making no sense. You came on trying to impress with your ability to control Scotland. I pointed out to you that you may not have that.
    who only has one choice and what is this choice.
    Doesn't want 'their' meat and dairy. Who is their? EU does not want. I am guessing you are still thinking the cattle ban due to mad cow disease is still in operation. It ended in 2006.

    We certainly do plenty of business in this area.

    U.K dairy exports to EU

    https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-in...mports-exports/eu-dairy-exports/#.WMrpJn_xeM8

    and Northern Ireland certainly has reason to be bothered about this.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...r-farming-exports-at-risk-if-uk-leaves-the-eu

    or just take everything together This is for 2014

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...515048/food-farming-stats-release-07apr16.pdf



    Oh you were saying the EU do not want Scottish products only the English do?

    No you are wrong, as above. Scotland also exports throughout the world.

    I've got it, they is Scotland. You really have an exaggeration of your own importance. Possibly you should be thinking more of the fact that around 44% of the UK's exports go to the EU. Taking your argument, England has had it. And indeed that is to some extent what not looking at the taxes before brazenly taking the UK out of the EU is the position that the UK has been left in.
    get off the sauce and get real.

    Ah I see where you are coming from. Brexit talk - as is shown widely different to reality.

    England is not in such a powerful position as it was in 2014. Like I said this is still early. Scotland has been having plenty of ideas on different economic ideas. I would think that whether Scotland remain in the UK, remain in or rejoin the EU, become an associate member of the EU, England would like, if possible to have trade with Scotland. All these things will be looked at when we decide to have a vote.

    By the way you may also be interested in this

    Losing the EU Financial services 'Passport' would be a disaster for the UK economy.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2017
  21. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    ...yeah, but the Scots haven't quite figured that out yet... quite happy scavenging cash from others.
     
  22. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    What difference does it make to a person who wishes to drink a whisky, whether the country that whisky came from is in the EU, or the UK?

    Answer: none.

    Trade will continue. The demand remains for the goods regardless of any political outcome as does the availability of supply.

    What won't continue is the unbalanced trade of goods. We will use WTO tariffs to correct this. Which is A what they are for, and B what they are good at and C What we need in this on-going global financial crisis.

    Trade will continue. Those goods we can no longer afford to purchase, we shall not. We shall not take on debt... for our children and grand children to repay to the Germans.
    OMFG.

    Millions have died in this great country and for what? To deliver our children's servitude to they?

    Greedy swine thought they ruled this land. But they do not.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
  23. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    OK to give some updates.

    Gordon Brown has stepped in with what he hopes will be the winning way - but before I get to that I will mention what some people may find a somewhat cynical idea by 'wee ginger dug' in the National as to why TMay does not want Scotland to have it's referendum till the Brexit issue is done and dusted

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15...ingdom_will_be_a_dark__dark_place/?ref=twtrec


    later he makes this point
    It might be worth people checking out how the West may indeed be moving quietly into despotism

    The New Despotism of the 21st Century: Imagining the End of Democracy

    However to return to the idea that May might indeed be planning on selling off some of Scotland's needs for Englands wants in its hard Brexit - well May has been refusing to get into discussions with people from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland despite her initially claiming all would be involved and the deal which would be done would be one which suited everyone. That simply has not happened. May did not even have the respect to acknowledge Nicola's ideas before Nicola felt there was no alternative but to ask for a Referendum. Moreover it has become clear that Scotland would not get the right to decide on anything which would effect her and that once a hard Brexit is achieved Scotland will not have control over the Scottish issues which the EU currently has - more clearly illustrating the need for Independence.

    It is this that Gordon Brown has seen as his way to keep Scotland in the UK and out of the EU. He begins by making a demand that Scotland get £800,000 back from the EU - one has to imagine hoping to get all those who believed in more money from the NHS on side.

    But then he goes on to suggest that Scotland have power over all the issues which concern Scotland


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39314250]

    Kezia Dugdale is the Scottish Labour Leader.

    What is against this and the BBC says much of this but first, he promised Scotland would become a Federal Power as the basis of the Vow. This was not seen to have been produced and hence that and Labour's support for the Tories about Independence in general has been why Labour has become all but a spent force in Scotland. Secondly he is forgetting that one of the big promises given to people on the street was that the only way to guarantee we stay in the EU was to vote for union with the UK - hence we now have people who before did not even consider voting for Independence now believing in it. Third what he is suggesting, that is Federalism in the UK was what John Smith, Brown's good friend hoped to be able to achieve, so that along with a written constitution, the UK would be firmly grounded in Democracy. Blair sold that out as I spoke of in Post 9. I don't think Brown has enough there but he at least does seem, in a round about way, to acknowledge that there is a need for a second Indyref.

    Some of the ideas on possible next move by Nicola


    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/what-are-nicola-sturgeon-options-for.html






     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
  24. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it will be just the Scots taking part in the next referendum. That fox has been shot.
    UK wide from now on.
    Shall we have devolved parliaments?

    Lets see if they are even wanted at all?

    The referendum has been held. Respect the result and losers will be treated with mercy. Fail to and we hold some more while we are on such a big winning streak.
     
  25. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ok I have now seen the beginning of Brown's speech and the obvious dishonesty, never mind he has said this before but not delivered, really ought to rule it out for any informed people. He claimed that he was offering a solution between two extremists - May who only answers (can't remember) and the SNP on an opposite extreme.

    Am now watching Nicola's Conference speech. As I said earlier she has been trying to get talks going with May. She said these were of two parts, the increase in powers Brown speaks of and a willingness to leave the EU provided we were staying in the single market. May would agree to nothing....so Brown your demands have already been refused though not the one for federalism - which was by the way what a lot of people suggested was the way to go after Indyref 2014 to avoid another one.

    Nicola speaks good. She speaks about the xenophobia which is engulfing the West. She is now calling the SNP a European Internationalist party saying May only speaks for the right of the Tory party which due to Labour tearing itself apart is likely to be in power to at least 2030.

    With regard to a Referendum. It will be passed next week in the Scottish Parliament. She says Scotland will then be looking for the best legal advice ....that she does not believe it will be found that the Scottish Parliament cannot follow it's mandate from the electorate confirmed by it's Parliament and suggests May take time to think again. She says there is no question there will be another referendum.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017

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