Neutral (!!!) facts about coming German elections for your information!

This thread serves solely as information for the forum members with regard to the upcoming German election on September 24th, 2017.
The thread is neutral and is intended to present non-German members the electoral process and the parties involved so that they can make a better picture and the electoral system, which differs from those of other countries such as the USA.

This thread is NOT to spread the usual political flames and opinions ... as Merkel is stupid or Merkel is great and all the like!


A. The State System of Germany
The Federal Republic of Germany is a federal state with 16 federal states and a federal government in the capital Berlin.
The head of the state is the Federal President, who, however, has almost only representative tasks, similar to e.g. the Queen of England, etc. The Federal President is elected every 5 years by the Federal Assembly (all members of Parliament + same number from the states).
The nominal political power lies in the hands of the Federal Chancellor. The Federal Chancellor is also elected indirectly, which means that the Federal Chancellor is not being elected directly by the citizens, but by the members of the German parliament (“Bundestag”).
The Parliament, on the other hand, is re-elected every four years ... and thus also indirectly the Federal Chancellor. Because of the federal system, there are also two chambers in Germany, the "Bundestag" = Parliament and the "Bundesrat" = Chamber of the 16th Federal States. Both are the legislative force and laws must pass both chambers.

B. The German electoral system
The Bundestag is elected "according to the principles of a proportional election". But what does this mean? Each voter has 2 votes in the Bundestag election…

First vote:
With the first vote, voters determine which direct candidate represents a particular constituency in the Bundestag - simply who is going to Berlin for her. The principle applies: If you have received the most votes in one of the 299 constituencies in Germany, you will be a member of the Bundestag!
Second vote:
Voters give their second vote for the provincial list of a political party. For example, if Party A has received 20% of the second votes, 20% of the seats in the Bundestag are theirs. At the moment the Bundestag consists of (at least) 598 members. Of these, 299 are elected directly with the First Vote. The remaining 299 are elected through the provincial lists of the parties = Second Vote.
That sounds quite complicated now ... and it is also ultimately. Since here in Germany a democratic system led by parties exists, it is decisive how many votes a party gets ... and therefore the Second Vote is ultimately the more important.
In addition, we have a 5% hurdle for parties in Germany. This means that a party must receive 5% of all Second Votes in order to be able to go to the Bundestag as a party. However, the First Votes are not part of it! If, for example, 4 candidates of a party in their constituencies receive the merit of the first votes, but the party does not receive 5% of all second votes, then only these 4 candidates draw as members in the Bundestag! These Second Votes given for parties not taking the 5% hurdle are counted by a complicated system to those who take it in seats in parliament.

Also it is possible for voters to give First Vote candidate of party A, but Second Vote goes to party B. This was also sometimes wanted due to coalitions.

Because of this 5% hurdle there is of course also criticism.
It was introduced for the understandable and good reason that it should be prevent that parliamentary work and also the government education is being hampered by countless and unimportant parties ... as is the case in some countries without such a hurdle.
On the other hand, 16% of the Second Votes accounted for such parties, which had failed in the 5%. In essence, most of the criticism is not based on this hurdle, but on the 5% limit, ie only 3% would be better.
It has not happened in Germany since the 1950s (State of Bavaria aside) that a single party receives the absolute majority of all votes. Thus, coalitions of two or more parties are the result after the elections, as far as the formation of the new government is concerned!

C. The main parties in Germany
In Germany there are, as in other countries, numerous political parties from far left to far right, but also stuff like the "party of motorists" or “party of beer drinkers” and other BS parties. Almost all of them fail at the 5% hurdle, even the fewest candidates of these parties receive a direct mandate via the First Vote. Therefore only the most important parties, which will make it into the Bundestag after the last polls.

1. CDU / CSU
The letters stand for Christlich Demokratische Union (Christian Democratic Union) and Christlich Soziale Union (Christian Social Union). The CSU is the local "sister" of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and is only present in the state of Bavaria, where it also forms the state government. The party - usually only called "Union" - is regarded as a Christian conservative party and its leading candidate is Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has been Chancellor since 2005.
With the Bavarian “sister” CSU is sometimes a dispute existing, because the CSU is mostly more conservative as the CDU in some things or has another general opinion! After last election in 2013, the CDU / CSU is in coalition with the SPD, because only possible way about majority.
Currently the CDU / CSU will receive about 38% of all Votes and so is being the strongest party!

2. SPD
The letters stand for Sozial Demokratische Partei Deutschlands (Social Democratic party of Germany).
The SPD was founded in the middle of the 19th century by the workers' movement. It is politically left, but by no means "communist" oriented. Since 2013, she has been in the government coalition with the CDU / CSU and represents some ministers. Also the current Federal President of Germany is from SPD - F.W. Steinmeier.
The SPD's top candidate is Martin Schulz, who had been an active and important EU politician in Brussels for many years (at least from 2014 - 2017 President of the EU Parliament).

The SPD is currently the second-strongest party on 24% of all votes.

3. FDP
FDP stands for „Freiheitlich Demokratische Partei“ (Freedom Democratic Party) and is political the liberal party. But to prevent miss-understandings … the term liberal is in its meaning not the same as in the USA!. Here liberal stands more for “lesser state” liberal econimic politics”, etc. In the past the FDP was rated to be the party of the upper class and company and corporation bosses, but this image has slightly changed in meantime.
It used to be involved in governments in changing coalitions with the CDU / CSU, but also the SPD. In 2013, however, the FDP failed for the first time at the 5% hurdle (4.7%) and was not represented in Parliament except for a few direct candidates.
Spitenkandidat is the 38 year old Christian Lindner, a well-known policeman in Germany, who brought the FDP from the total low point of 2013.

At the moment the FDP is getting about 8% of all votes.

4. Die Linke
“Die Linke” stands for the “The Left” and yes, they are really political lefties! Even if "Die Linke" would like to forget this, its origin goes back to the old communist state party of East Germany (GDR) and it is the successor after changes of name and completely changed politicians.
"The Left" has been a permanent political force in Germany and also in some Landesparlamenten since the reunification, and also involved in state governments, especially in the eastern federal states.
Die Linke has 2 top candidates representing the 2 wings of the party – Sarah Wagenknecht for the far left wing and Dietmar Bartsch for the more moderate wing.

Die Linke gets in moment about 9% of all votes!

5. Die Gruenen
Die Gruenen (= The Greens). Green stands for green and so stands for environmental and environmental protection with all other things ... including anti-nuclear power movement, peace movement, etc. I think the political orientation of the part is clear to everyone ....
The Greens have been permanently represented in Parliament since the 1980s. They too have two top candidates, who stand for the two wings in the party – Cem Oezdemir for the realists and Kathrin Goering-Eckardt for the fundamentalists.

Currently the “Gruenen” get about 8% of all votes.

6. Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD)
It stands for “Alternative for Germany” … the party was founded in 2013 in Berlin after the FDP failed to enter the Parliament and due to internal dispute inside the FDP.
The goals of foundation were in origin an EU sceptical and in parts EU hostile politics, to eleminate the EURO currency and going back to the old DM currency, as well an in general very righty conservative liberal politics (for example cutting rights of Workers Unions drastic).
After the party, in the summer of 2015, dismissed the chairman and founder of the party, Bernd Lucke, the economic wing was split off. Since then, the party tends to be more than right-wing populist with openness to right-wing extremism. In the Party there are ethnic nationalist, racist, and anti-Semitic tendencies visible.
A clear single top candidate or tandem of 2 is not given at AfD since Frauke Petry was dismissed from power. It is a mix of top several leading members in moment.

Currently the AfD is getting about 8% of all votes

The rest of all the small parties are getting in moment in sum of all votes about 4 – 7% and are playing no rule in the election.

Please note: The named % of votes are those from polls of September 2nd, 2017. As we all learned, polls and reality can differ at election days ... also poll A can differ from poll B of other agency. I used here the average %, so it could be that it is +/- 1 or 2% at each party!

 

Germanyistan...

 

Good to know that this is the system which the US gave us after WW-2 as demand about democracy ... So thank you USA and good to know that your people are now rating it as "Germanystan".
May I can rate the USA as "Unimportant States of America" in reverse?

 

Only a matter of time before you have your first Jihadist chancellor. How exciting.

 

Like only a matter of time when stars and stripes will be exchanged by Swastika flag?

 

Go ahead, we here in the US are to busy destroying and dividing our own system of government to take time out to bitch about how you destroy yours. I did live in Stuttgart and Mannheim for seven years in the 80's and early 90's and enjoyed my stay.

 

That's what the globalist are saying. They are trying to say anyone in America, that is white and pro America, is a Nazi. It will never happen. In reality, those KKK groups make up less then .1% of the population. The left just uses them to paint anyone on the right as one of them.

 

This comment makes no sense and is also not in the spirit of true debate. It is certainly not adult. What a shame. Do you always troll in such a meaningless, childish, Trumplike fashion?

 

I assume you were in Käfertal...

 

Nice thread, well written, thanks.

Probably good to note that the FDP is the one party that is absolutely, all holds barred capitalistic party of Germany. So, economically, they are as about right as it gets. Socially, they have a more live-and-let-live Libertarian bent. I've met Westerwelle on more than one occasion. Lindner was his right hand man at the time.

Since Merkel needs to get to about 48.6% (if I recall, that is considered absolute majority in Germany, when you scrape off the waste vote), so she will need to exceed the 38% she is polling at this moment. But the CDU traditionally does better on election day than the end polling. Interesting to see FDP back in the game. Hopefully AfD will return to the ash heap of history.

-Stat

 

Badcannstatt, Ludwigsberg und Weinheim....Leibe Ludwigsberg

 

my ex wife comes from Weihheim an der Bergstraße. I know the place quite well.

 

If they reelect Merkel then its pretty much over for Germany. They will never again be anything other than a second tier country.

 

Danka und vederschlocken mit keperlitten ver dis flippen hopen uff da! Uff da!

 

That didn't really make any sense at all.

 

@Mandelus - why not explain on this thread two possible coalitions:

Jamaica
Große Koalition

I think that would be helpful for our PF readers.

 

No problem...

As can be seen from my OP, since the 1950s there have been no election results at the federal level, where a party alone reaches an absolute majority. Therefore, always coalitions are the result after the elections and the exciting is then ultimately always what coalition can form or form... mostly one of the two big players (CDU/CSU or SPD) with a smaller one.
Each coalition naturally means that both sides must make political concessions in order to form the government as a partner. Of course, not everyone can make a coalition with each one, and some of the conglomerations are simply impossible. The AfD is, for example, categorically excluded from all others as possible partner. Furthermore, a coalition between CDU / CSU and "The Left" is more than unlikely, because both are political enemies.

People have also to understand that in Germany political parties are given "colors" as symbol.
CDU/ CSU = black
SPD = red
FDP = yellow
"Die Linke" = another more purple like red
Die Gruenen = green
AfD = blue

In 2013 the election result was that there was no possible conglomerations of a big one with a smaller one together given and so the only way was a so called "Grosse Koalition" what means a big coalition of CDU/CSU together with the SPD.
Since founding after WW-2 it was the third time that such a big coalition was the only rational orientated alternative to form a working government with necessary majority in parliament.

The CDU/ CSU prefers mostly a coalition with the FDP as partner, but the current polls show that both have together not yet enough % to get absolutely majority (38% + 8%). Because "Die Linke" and "Afd" are impossible and a total "no go" for CDU/CSU as partner, the only alternative to a new big coalition with SPD is then a so called coalition between CDU/CSU, FDP and "Die Gruenen".... which is called Jamaica coalition due to the colors of the parties which are the same as the flag of Jamaica (black, yellow and green). Because the "Die Gruenen" are also not only more extreme ecologically and environmentally orientated, but the left wing is really left too, it will be a very difficult coalition if they are at least really willing to make enough concessions to the 2 others.

The SPD is since 2005 in a deep voter loss and the reasons here are ironically in big parts changes done by their last chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in social and welfare area which caused a deep cut for people depending to the state helps ... so they lost the voter base much, because they made changes which were harder as much proposals of old righties in the USA. also are since 2005 no "big strong enough persons" in the party who can compete to Angela Merkel really. Aside a big coalition is no realistic way for them to be part of government given. "Die Linke" and "Die Gruenen" are possible coalition partners, but this will give not enough % ... and FDP is for SPD since the beginning of the 1980's a more "no go" for them (because they were there in coalition with SPD and then switched far before next election the sides to CDU/CSU, which changed majority in parliament and brought Helmut Kohl into power ... and so SPD still rate the FDP as betrayers in big parts).

 

I always find it amusing when right-wing Americans accuse us Germans of the refugee plots, of our downfall and, like all Germans, to say "Allah" to god! Is every time to laugh dead, that there are actually really some people who believe such a nonsense ...

We have actually, including all Muslim refugees, something between 4 and 5 million Muslims in our country which has in total 82 million citizens. What a danger! We are overrun by the Islamists as once German tanks rolled over in the Blitzkrieg! Our culture is in danger, even our language is also! All our German women will be raped and the evil Jihadist will eat our children and burn the Christian bibles! How stupid are we Krauts?

This is now just ridiculous what these low brainers write everything!

If you trolls the facts into the face hurls, then look irh so poorly ...

How many terrorist attacks had we had again since 9/11 in Germany?
9 Islamic attacks and 6 attacks of Nazis on foreigners/ with racial background and 3 terror acts of Left extremists on righties and Nazis!

How many terrorist attacks you had since 9/11 again in the USA?
11 Islamic attacks, 10 terror attacks of Righties and racist, 3 of lefties and 2 of Christian extremists + 2 unknown reason / background (July 11, 2017 on Air Force Recruitment Center in Oklahoma and the Anthrax attack series in September 2001).

So you have in the USA about 4 times of population as we have and inside this not even half of total number of Muslims as we, but you have more Islamic attacks as we have! So in conclusion we must do something seriously better as you in the USA and we do fight Islamic terror same hard as you.

 

Perfect. I was hoping you would do that.

I also agree that Schröder's AGENDA 2010 probably turned off a number of former SPDers, who, seeing no other real opportunity, have gone over to DIE LINKE, in spite of the fact that the core of that party (strongest in the provinces of the old East Germany) is most of old diehard communists. Were I a German, I would probably identify mostly with the CDU, because it comes closest to the centrist wing of the US-Democratic Party.

The one party you did not mention, and thankfully, it will not even come close to the 5% hurdle, is the NPD - an extreme, ultranationlistic, almost neo-nazi party. I say "almost" because the few members probably are diehard nazis but smart enough to skirt around §130 and §131 of the BGB (German National Code) and therefore not break the law. But they dance really hard on the periphery to it, to say the least.

Again, thanks for the really well thought-out OP.

Most Americans don't realize that since Germany is in just one time zone and the counting is done extremely quickly and efficiently, as soon as the polls close at 18:00 on election Sunday and the first "Hochrechnungen" (Prognoses) come in, unless it's a real nail-biter (see: 2002), then the election can usually be called right around 18:00. Not nearly the same kind of "Game of Thrones" adventure as with US-American presidential elections....

 

Her guilt trip is allowing hundreds of thousands of violent Muslims into the country and they are not assimilating, This isn't just Germany its a problem in the rest of Europe as well. For whatever reasons immigrants do not assimilate nearly as well as they do in the US.

Her leftist guilt trip has turned Germany into a perpetual police state at this point. She has decided that inviting uneducated Muslims with views on women and other religions incongruous with liberal democratic views to assuage her guilt and make her popular at her hipster parties is alright even if it means having the rest of Germany live under a constant threat of violence and having armed police roaming all over.

 

I sure wish we had a political system so diverse and representative as this. I think what we have now is frankly inadequate for the US federal government as it exists today in terms of representation and voter freedom, oddly enough in spite of people technically being free to cast a vote for whomever they choose, since it's always the same two parties - just TWO! - taking the win every time.

 

It's the way most parliamentary elections look.

 

Even if it is slowly boring, always the same nonsense as now read ... I take the time and explain a few facts about the topic...
There were about 1.4 million refugees, about 2/3 of them were Muslims .... so not all Muslims like some Trolls always claim!
Some 600-700,000 of these refugees are now forced to leave because their request for asylum has been rejected ... the next point that is so fond of concealing, because then it looks quite times what these idiotic accusations are concerned!
Since the 1960s, Germany has had a roughly 3-4 million strong Islamic share in the population ... so twice as many Muslims as in the US with a total of about 4 times as much population as Germany! (82 millions in Germany - 320 millions in the USA).
Isn't it quite strange that we have far fewer Islamic terrorist attacks than you, if these are all so evil people, eh? And as far as the integration is concerned, as surely I'm not perfect, but somehow this is much better with us.
However, I find your statement because of good integration also for other reasons, because the history of the USA shows that the integration in the USA with regard to hatred of newcomers is just a bunch of crap! How were the Irish, Chinese and Italian, as well as Eastern Europeans so well integrated and welcomed?

Are you coming with this idiotic accusation of "Freedom of Speech"? If so, then I laugh because we do not want to allow the anti-constitutional elements who wants to eliminate this and other rights to abuse this right for it ... like your sleeping American! We do not allow Nazi Scum with Swastika flag to openly demonstrate on the street and so to abuse the own values and for what many Americans fought in the WW-2 and struck in their face, because Freedom of Speech!

 

What an obnoxious load of crap. It is known by everyone except the most ignorant that Muslims by and large end up living in ghettos with extremely high poverty and unemployment rates.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...sympathy_then_disinterest_then_hostility.html

LOL, the Chinese Italians and Irish are doing just fine in this country, in fact they are flourishing. In fact they are doing better here in the US than in their home countries. The difference is that they assimilated within a few short years while the Muslim community in Europe has been segregated for several decades with no signs of improvement. Muslims have a low rate of unemployment in this country but over double the unemployment rate in Europe compared to native Euroepeans. The closest equivalent in the US for Muslims in Europe are blacks who have self inflicted wounds.

Islam is evil, there is absolutely nothing redeeming at all about that repressive obnoxious religion.

 

That is a biggy. America has a long, proud tradition of bigotry and xenophobia, in particular by the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant (WASP) crowd. They have always looked down on others and treated them like crap. It has only been in recent history that they have settled down about other white people and other Christians, and started circling their wagons together against just about everyone else instead.

But this is also hopefully a mostly regional and generational problem. There are those who think that the worst will be past us when the Boomer generation is gone; they feel that the younger folks are much more accepting and tolerant of differences. That's the impression I get also.