Stephen Hawking: Earth will turn into fireball in less than 600 years

Discussion in 'Science' started by wgabrie, Nov 7, 2017.

  1. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yes - on all points.

    We have had a poor record of sticking with a plan when it comes to space - other than business propositions, such as gps and telecommunications.

    There are various flavors of sci fi, to be sure. In general, I'm not a fan. But, when the author makes a serious effort to stick to physics and capabilities that are within human reach, I get a little more interested.
     
  2. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,530
    Likes Received:
    5,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Who would want to live their entire life dressed in a space suit? That's what living on Mars or the moon would be. I don't think anyone's thought of that except me? :cool:
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2017
  3. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    True. However, I think the idea is to have structures of reasonable size and that don't require suits. Elon Musk is working with some company that does stuff that is somewhat similar - that is, stable and highly collapsable.

    One could also imagine machines that have have life support built in for the operators - maybe like some kinds of agricultural equipment on earth, like tractors and harvesters.

    I haven't heard anyone suggest it would be a comfortable alternative to earth.
     
  4. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The pace of space exploration in these early stages is like watching a snail crawl. It can't be faster because it's dependent on technological advances, interest, and money. Too many people are looking for the payback and that's the wrong way to approach it...
     
  5. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Can't compare to what we do on Earth...it will simply be different...
     
  6. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We have the same issues on the ISS and outside they wear suits and inside anything goes...
     
    WillReadmore likes this.
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It will simply be worse.

    (imo)
     
  8. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yes, there are factors that make changing plans attractive - dollars, new discoveries, pure politics, new technology, so many things to look at in space that it's hard to pick a couple and stick with it.

    However, I think we're doing a pretty darn good job with the resources we've given it. We've got satellites studying earth, asteroids, deep space in several ways, planets and their moons, etc., etc.

    Like I've said in the past, I'm not that excited about spacemen. Slow progress on that one doesn't bother me.
     
  9. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,530
    Likes Received:
    5,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So how would NASA get all this hardware and the infrastructure materials up to Mars? And why all that agricultural machinery when the entire surface is like volcanic dust? And if not space suits, we'd still need to wear breathing apparatus every time we take the dog out for a walk? In fact the dog would have to wear it too?

    Nor have I, in which case what's the point of anyone obsessing about Mars as if it is an alternative to earth? That's the bit I don't get! [​IMG] So many questions, so few answers.
     
  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I was mentioning Elon Musk, not NASA. Musk is designing and building a gigantic rocket that he has named the BFR: "Big F***ing Rocket". If successful, it could lift more than the entire ISS into earth orbit, and/or fly stuff to Mars.

    Yes, you would have to suit up to walk outside on Mars.

    I mentioned earth bound farm implements, because some have cabs that are pretty nice. On Mars, there could be machines with cabs that could hold humans without space suits.

    I agree that Mars is not an alternative for earth. The idea of moving any significant number of people off of earth is ridiculous as a distant dream. The ONLY idea that should give us is that we need to take care of our planet.

    In fact, there ARE answers to the questions of a significant number of humans moving off the earth - and those answers are: NO!
     
  11. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I suppose Hawking's point was if humans are to survive a few thousand more years it might not be able to be accomplished on planet Earth. So prepare ourselves to colonize something away from Earth. Obviously this can only mean a very small percentage of the humans on Earth but at least the species keeps going. IMO this venture is not merely landing a human on Mars, or wherever, but more about colonizing. How long will it take to achieve this...50-100 or more years? The Earth is already having some issues with potable water and food, and in some cases shelter, all of which worsen each day, so Hawking's 600 years might need to be 100 or 200 or something much less than 600 years. IMO this means if we are truly going to colonize Mars then start the program today...
     
  12. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm guessing we'll have the current administration for another 7 years, then it's a crap shoot after that who might be in office, in which not only do they deny global climate change but also vomit at the idea of science, so it's hard to imagine anyone, except some private money, taking any actions on this. Therefore, people do need to start figuring out how they can cope with whatever problems arise from climate change...which again is difficult since perhaps 60-70% of the public are either not interested or refuse to fund these programs. I won't be around but it still bothers me that we can't do better, that we can't even find consensus...
     
    tecoyah likes this.
  13. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree we need to take care of this planet, because the ramifications of not doing so are catastrophic - in any scenario.

    The idea of a wholly independent colony on Mars hits me as a LONG way off. And, the existence there would seem likely to be no more than a struggle to survive.
     
  14. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well, the current administration isn't even slightly interested in ensuring a survivable future on earth.

    So, I see everything you wrote up to the first period to be a sentence on humans.
     
  15. Llewellyn Moss

    Llewellyn Moss Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2016
    Messages:
    1,572
    Likes Received:
    681
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So freakish Hawking is now the religion of science official prophet ?

    Does he have a crystal ball ?

    Oh, we're all gonna die because....science. Ok, then.

     
  16. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,530
    Likes Received:
    5,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You mean the A/C? Oh yeah, I hadn't thought of that. And if someone can come up with personal A/C units - bit like one of them thar VR thingies - nobody'll need to wear space suits? Sorted - count me in! :mrgreen:
     
  17. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,350
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Watvh the movie "The Martian" for one idea. The author stayed in close contact with NASA and others yo stay within today's technology with few exceptions - such as the storm on mars and an ion drive larger than we can build and power today.

    It's still sci fi, but not crazy.
     
  18. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2016
    Messages:
    27,942
    Likes Received:
    19,979
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Scientific speculation isn't a theory.

    A theory requires an exact mathematical model that has been peer reviewed and tested ad infinitum. It must also solve a problem or provide new insights into the nature of the physical world.

    What scientists call a theory, most people would call a proven fact. The standards for evidence, for a hypothesis to become a theory, are far greater than for things the average person accepts without question.

    Imagine going to a mechanic and require that thousands of other mechanics duplicate your problem and solution, mathematically prove how it failed, and publish those results for review, before you would pay your bill! That's science!
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017
    Montegriffo likes this.
  19. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2016
    Messages:
    27,942
    Likes Received:
    19,979
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Put another way, if the standards for legal evidence were as high as the standards for scientific evidence, no one could ever be convicted!

    We put people to death on far less evidence than is required for a scientific theory.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017
  20. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,530
    Likes Received:
    5,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Couldn't have put it better myself. It works like this: get a job where you keep looking for something that doesn't exist, such as 'black holes' 'gravitational waves' 'exo-universes' blah blah, and you've got it for life. I don't blame them though - I even wish that I could get a piece of the action, but I'm not 'in the know'!
     
  21. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree...I don't have much interest in 'trying' to colonize Mars...my preference continues to be a fully sustainable biosphere spaceship on a one-way voyage 'out there'. Without new physics to magically transport humans at much higher speeds, or near SOL speeds, even this venture is more about novelty than practicality...
     
  22. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Pretty much...although things can change...by the time they do...it will be far down the road from today...perhaps too far...
     
  23. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    19,980
    Likes Received:
    1,177
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I would not say that the Theory of Evolution is "an exact mathematical model? I would say it's more of an explanation, while based on 'facts that we know'...so is it speculation or theory or law?
     
  24. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2016
    Messages:
    15,501
    Likes Received:
    3,740
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Evolution is more of a Religion due to the many gaps and other Data that is filled in by X - Y, A + B = C, there is simply too much guess work involved, one day facts will become known, and I am sure it will include bits & bobs and other elements from everyones books.
     
  25. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    2,720
    Likes Received:
    1,803
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Science has moved way past Darwin and his Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection, which is nowadays included in a set of theories from a wide field of scientific study, called the Modern evolutionary synthesis, which collectively explain how evolution occurs.
    It's supported by observations throughout the fields of genetics, anatomy, ecology, animal behavior, paleontology, and others.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
    DoctorWho likes this.

Share This Page