How are we better off post Iran deal?

Of course, even our allies care more about their own well being so fighting the bad trade deals will upset them. It’s about time someone did something and Trump is doing what he talked about for thirty years, back when he was a democrat.

 

Like n korea?

 

The trade war is one thing - this really has not concerned Europe much so far. It is not trying to get more fair trade that is the problem - it is the way that the Trump admin is going about it that is the problem. Much of the bluster is for political reasons for the home audience .. stuff that makes no sense in reality.

One of the most ridiculous things he did was chastise Canadians for sneaking US shoes back across the border by wearing them across - How is this not dumb and dumber ? Criticizing citizens of another nation for spending money in the US - in an effort to complain about a trade imbalance ?

The above is just one example of the ridiculous and irrational.

The Sanctions are a whole other matter. This is where the Admin has gone to far and it is hurting us. It is not like the trade deals where Trump can do the "scare em and save em tactic" - where he ramps up the bluster for the public consumption - gets some small concession and then declares a win.

Backing down from the sanctions is not so easy or simple. It would involve conceding a mistake and that is not going to happen.

This reaction to the sanctions have been visceral - excessive and intentional. It is not like its a "we are just going to do our own thing" and agree to disagree - it is a full throated "F-U". Its like a straw that breaks the camels back event - like when the wife snaps over some small thing - but it is really over something that has been building up for awhile.

We have been throwing our weight around rather carelessly for a long time. The "do as we say - not as we do attitude" is not good. The trust we built up over decades - as an honest broker - has been broken. We are not viewed that way. When we say stuff like "you can't trust Russia - Russia will control you - as in what was being said to Germany about the Nord Stream" - people laugh because we can not be trusted either. We have lost our credibility in many respects.

You can't talk down to other nations like some parent talking to a child - and expect them to like it. This backlash has been building up.

Our companies doing international business used to be first in line. We have now been relegated second class - or just another face in the crowd - or even undesirable in some cases.

1) Germany is going ahead with Nord Stream - despite big US protestations
2) Italy signed onto China's belt and road initiative - despite big US protestation - other European nations are moving that direction as well.
3) Turkey went ahead with the S-400 purchase - despite threats. We wont sell them F-35's .. they will buy from Russia - a NATO member.
4) India went ahead with the S-400 despite US protestation - big trade deals announced with China and Russia. India is the biggest up and fastest growing up and coming economy on the planet.
5) Iraq gave a major infrastructure contract to Siemens over GE - think we managed to get some of that back but it was only after serious political lobbying. Iraq also passed a bill to remove US troops from Iraqi soil.
6) Saudi Arabia is agreeing to trade oil with China in Petro-Yuan

The above is just a few rather recent examples - its shocking and it is not some joke to be sloughed off as if this is nothing. Its not.

Where are we "winning" ? Poland and Ukraine - big deal. We are not "winning" - we are losing.

 

It is not surprising that many miss the big picture. China's long term one road policy is already being hurt with many companies moving to other supply chains, Apple for one talking about it. With China's flagging economy the trade pressure is working. Xi will meet with Trump at the G20 and everyone predicted that would not happen. North Korea is part of the chess game and NK is a hostage of China. The effusive words from Trump and the iron hand is just Trump using China's technique against them. By siphoning off NK China is trying to used NK as a bargaining chip since NK doesn't do anything without China's approval.

The worry about tariffs is a short term worry and by always thinking short term no one will ever challenge China's policies. China NEVER gives up trade concessions. China thinks long term, politicians only think about the next election. The dems are already promising fealty to China as are many that want the status quo.

 

Regurgitating Trump administration platitudes "were winning"is not the big picture. Obviously China is going to suffer some losses from the trade war. This is not what the big picture is about. I keep talking "Sanctions" and you keep reverting to the trade war. These are two different issues.

Where do you come up with the idea that China has a flagging economy ? Since when is 6.4% GDP growth "flagging" ?


https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

Trump would sell off his grandchildren to get GDP numbers like that. It is the US economy that is flagging. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting GDP growth of 1.5% for Q2 and the long term forecast is similar.

The Trade war is what it is - both sides are trying to wheel and deal. Sanctions are a completely different beast. You are talking "Local" not global. .

China is playing the long game. The trade war is the short game .. this will be settled and it will be business as usual. In the meantime - our status and stature around the globe continues to suffer due to sanctions and we keep losing. Pointing out a few anecdotes from areas that we are winning - such as in Poland and Ukraine - does not change the areas where we are losing and is not the Big Picture.

A big part of the Big Picture - something you have completely talked over - is our sole reserve currency status. The trade war has little or no impact on this status. The sanctions are having a huge impact.

I have said this before and I will say it again - The day that a viable competitor exists to the US dollar's current "Sole" status - is the day the History books will mark as the defacto end of the US economic Empire. Full Stop. This is not debated in serious circles.

It is stuff like this that is expediting the process.

U.S. will sanction any countries that import Iranian oil: special envoy

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...mport-iranian-oil-special-envoy-idUSKCN1TT1IW

I already commented on the damage that Sanctions are already doing. Now what - we are going to sanction more nations ?. So lets say we sanction China - then what - we are going to sanction every nation that deals with China - India who has been violating the Sanctions. We quickly get to a world where we have excluded ourselves from the world.

I don't actually think this will happen - someone will step in and put on the brakes - we already have a whole lot of people - Red people - calling for restraint and warning of consequences - some of which is already happening.

U.S. tells Europe: Choose between us and Iran
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c61607d8190_story.html?utm_term=.0ce29ee1023f

So now we are giving ultimatums - when the relationship is already strained? When two people are in a relationship and one person starts threatening the other and giving ultimatums. That relationship is either doomed or extremely disfunctional. Since lives are intertwined the victim of this abuse often does not leave right away - but they start planning their exit.

Europe has already given us the equivalent of a big "F U" - using the strongest of language - not in private - but on the international stage. "You are messing with our sovereignty". How is doubling down on what incensed Europe previously - going to make things better ?

Its not. Europe is going on without us - doing deal with Russia and China.

This trade war will end - and it will be business as usual. This Iran thing will end. What will remain is the memory of being held hostage by the US - and the sincere desire to end our Sole Reserve Currency Status.

The only thing that maintains this status is the desire of the other nations of the world to maintain this status. That's it. That is the Big Picture.

 

CNBC is reporting, "European officials said they created a trading vehicle to help Iran get some relief from U.S. sanctions, but Tehran may see the proposal as insufficient to stop it from moving forward with a threat to violate its nuclear deal.

"The remaining parties to the nuclear deal, abandoned by the U.S. last year, have been scrambling to find a way to keep Iran from leaving the agreement. They held an urgent meeting in Vienna in an effort to hold Iran from violating the deal. The trade mechanism was announced after the meeting.

"But Iran said it would continue with its plan to enrich uranium even though it is just days away from a volume that would violate the nuclear accord."

Meanwhile, Trump has warned our European allies that they have a choice of doing business with the U.S. or Iran.

Good job, Mr. President, as you drive us farther and farther away for our allies.

I see you are having a great time with the communist dictator of Russia. Pompeo was laughing his head off at your joke about Russian interference in our election, and your attack on American news media was great comedy. We all enjoyed it.

 

This is surreal.

Congress has the power to declare war.

Article I, Section 8, Clause 11 of the United States Constitution, sometimes referred to as the War Powers Clause, vests in the Congress the power to declare war, in the following wording:

[The Congress shall have Power...] To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water.

Trump Republicans in Congress have refused to rein in the reckless President. They have chided him, but do nothing. Trump recently joined with the communist dictator of Russia as both had a good laugh over Russia's interference in our election. To Trump, that is a joke.

Recently, Trump nearly caused a catastrophic war with Iran.

To all of this, Republicans in Congress do nothing. Now they have even given up their war powers to Trump. The Senate on Friday rejected an attempt to require Trump to seek congressional approval for military action in Iran.

Republicans in Congress just gave our erratic President, who is a friend of Vladimir Putin, the unlimited power to go to war against Iran and her many proxies throughout the Middle East. If Iraq, a far weaker military power, is any measure, war with Iran would be multi-year disaster, and Trump is completely in charge. Senators abdicated their power over the executive branch.