China’s playing the long game, and is making key moves to hedge against Trump’s tariffs

Discussion in 'Asia' started by s002wjh, Aug 28, 2019.

  1. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm in favor of some changes. Just not this way.

    Can you point out a few of these vastly unfair practices? It sounds like a generalization.
     
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  2. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm on a phone and can't link. Try Googling or Bing "businessroundtable.org recommendations for Chinese reforms to address trade and investment barriers". It has details.
     
  3. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Well, those claims didn't age well.

    We have a group in this country that loves China and longs to be able to boss everyone around like China does. They hate our system of individual freedom and long to implement Tyranny here, imagining that they would be in charge of it. What they miss in their lust for power is that China isn't playing the "Long Game" they are running a Long Con.

    A very small group exploiting a massive population, and that works as long as the money keeps rolling, but when the music stops?
     
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  4. free man

    free man Well-Known Member

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    Cnbc attacking Trump is like a dog attacking a human. No news. Move on.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2019
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  5. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    It isn't stealing if a company knowingly and willingly does business in china knowing the situation.
     
  6. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    The US can't "play the long game." Everything changes too quickly. It is a serious weakness in the way our culture and government are structured.
     
  7. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It goes beyond that.
     
  8. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Naive pretty much sums up much of the commentary on both sides of the fence - more so on the right side in this case.

    China can break the US will - and they know it. They don't want to do this however because it is of no benefit to them - nor us for that matter. China is communist dictatorship and thus not subject to the will of the people. The US is not. They can outlast us and it is naive to think otherwise.

    We are suffering far more than China on things like consumer electronics on a dollar per dollar basis. China makes "F-All" on an Iphone. The value add from China is roughly 3% - mostly in cheap labor. The US value add on a soybean is greater than 90% The differential is 30.

    This means that 1 Billion in trade from US to China (soybeans) is equal to 30 Billion in Consumer Electronic Trade China to US. To look at this as if the dollars in trade are equivalent is naive.

    Further - tariffs on Iphones do not stop Iphones from being manufactured in China - It is possible that the increased price of an Iphone will decrease sales - resulting a a few job losses but - not very much. China is then almost not effected at all.

    The tariffs are then paid for either by Apple - or the US consumer.

    The biggest blunder on the geopolitical chessboard by the Trump admin however is not Tariffs - it is the Iran Sanctions - or rather the way they were implemented.
     
  9. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Is that going to mean EU/Japan trade deficits with China are going to rise?

    First of all, Japan's not going to allow that and they don't have more things the Chinese want to buy.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2019
  10. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Our economy is doing great while China's GDP has fallen over 50%
     
  11. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not sure where you are getting your information but what you have just posted is well beyond ludicrous ... and in keeping with the discussion. Well beyond naive.

    This is a bloomberg article from less than a week ag.

    China Seen Heading for Sub-6% Economic Growth as Tariffs Soar
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-03/china-s-economy-will-grow-at-5-7-in-2020-oxford-economics-says

    Not only has China's GDP not fallen by 50% - The Chinese economy is still growing at a rate that is triple the US GDP growth rate of 2%.
     
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  12. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    China GDP was growing at average10% pre tarrifs. Do the math. You just proved my previous post corrrect.
     
  13. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    China's GDP hasn't been 10% since shortly after the crash.
     
  14. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    1) Your post stated that GDP in China decreased by 50%- GDP - and GDP growth are two different things. What is even more unbelievable than you posting "China's GDP has decreased by 50%" Is you - after being corrected - rather than correcting yourself and saying "I meant GDP Growth not GDP - maintaining your previous and obviously wrong position.

    2) Your new comment is - while not as completely absurd and inane as your "China's GDP has decreased by half since tariffs" comment - is completely false and not even close.

    [​IMG]
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-growth-slows-to-28-year-low-in-2018

    Please stop with this absurdity - it took me 30 seconds to google China's GDP.
     

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  15. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Yes I meant GDP growth. My error for not making that clear. The trade dispute among other factors has cut that by 50% as stated.
    China is in decline as we remain stable
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
  16. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Joseph .. in the post you are responding to is a graph of Chinese GDP showing it has gone from 7.5 in 2014 to 6.4 to the end of 2018. So as we can see China's GDP Growth has been declining for roughly 5 years. If you go to a longer term chart you will find this trend has been in place for more than a decade.

    The reason for this is that an economy can not maintain such a high growth rate for very long. China used to be in double digits - which is not unusual for emerging economies .. as China has been for the last couple of decades.

    China's GDP growth is projected to go below 6% for 2019. 6.4 to 5.9% is not 50% decrease.

    China has an economy that is projected to be the same size as the US very soon - perhaps even next year. China surpassed the US in terms of purchasing power a number of years ago.

    Of course China's growth rate will continue to decline -as it has been for a very long time. This has little to do with the Trade war and everything to do with a maturing economy.

    The economy that has dropped near 50% 3.5% to 2% from July 2018 to July 2019 - is the US economy.

    This also has little to do with the trade war and everything to do with the massive credit card spending spree (increasing the deficit) that Trump went on. This was like injecting nitrous oxide into an engine ... short term gain for long term pain. We had our short burst of speed and now which increased GDP from roughly 2% to 3.5% .. and now we are back to 2%.
     
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  17. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    Globalists in America and europe better wake up to the threat from china before its too late

    But they dont appear to be getting the message
     
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  18. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    All well and good but statements that China is experiencing a booming economy despite our trade war are mistaken. They are declining as we remain relatively stable. Tarrifs are definitely not the only reason for this but it shows China is not in a position to weather yet another economic hit that tarrifs will impose on it. I realize the left and Trump haters want to run up the white flag and declare Trump a loser and they feel talking up China's economy will help that happen but many of us don't look at this through partisan political glasses and truly desire a better trading relationship with China. As you say China is slated to have a bigger economy than ours in the near future so it's beyond time to level the trade playing field. We are no longer an economic superpower dealing with an emerging third world country and our trade policy needs to reflect this new reality.
     
  19. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Look Joe - you have been dead wrong on every one of your claims so far.

    1) China's GDP did not decrease by 50% - you corrected this which is good but your corrected claim was just as wrong
    2) China's GDP Growth did not decrease by 50%

    Previously you did not give any support for your naked claims (in response to my post which was very detailed and gave specific numbers and information that supported my claim).

    Now you make some new claims - again with no support -and again your claims are false.

    As per the previous link/post - China's GDP is going to be roughly 6% this year. If we had 6% GDP that would be "booming".

    You then to claim that the US economy is somehow doing better - when our GDP Growth is not even close to that of China. It is a completely false characterization to claim that stable (at 2%) is better than declining but still at 6% growth.

    You then claim - "China is not in a position to weather another economic hit that tariffs will impose" .. and once again you give no support for this claim.

    Put yourself in my shoes.. If you were conversing with some other poster- and that poster had just made 3 demonstrably false claims - giving no support for any of those claims - and now makes a 4th claim, again with no support or rational - what merit would you attribute to that claim ??

    China -having far higher GDP growth - is in a far better position to weather more tariffs.

    Further - as per my first post - where I detail how the effect of the tariffs on China 30 time less on a per dollar basis with respect to their counter tariffs on the US -and how the US citizen is paying most of the price - you are far overestimating the effect of the tariffs. China is hitting us harder than we are hitting them.

    Further - The Chinese leadership is in a far different political reality than we are - one that allows them to weather far more than our leadership is able to.

    You then close with this gibberish - most of which is projecting your issues onto others.
    1) you know I am not left - so why are you going on a left rant. What the left believes or does has nothing to do with what I am talking about. That Obama was a clown does not change the fact that Trump is making major blunders on the geopolitical stage.

    I get that the left sees the world through rose colored glasses but, you just finished touting 4 complete falsehoods as if these falsehoods were truth. How is that any better ?

    LOOK - I am not interested in a left vs right debate here, and partisan platitudes. I am interested in our long term economic interest.

    The one thing you are correct on is that we are no longer the sole world economic superpower. The problem is that the Trump Administration is making moves on the geopolitical chessboard as if this was still our position - but it is not. Making moves on the basis of a flawed positional analysis is the stuff that blunders are made of.

    This tariff thing with China has its strengths and weaknesses - and at the end of the day we will work things out. It is how we work things out that matters. For years we were able to just whisper our desires into the ears of other nations and they would come running to comply. That was because we were the only economic game in town. This is no longer the case.

    This tariff thing is not what is troubling me the most - not by any stretch. The massive blunder on the geopolitical chessboard was how the Trump admin has tried to bully other nations into going along with the Iran sanctions.

    This is harming us - it is harming our long term economic security - at exactly the time when we need to be making good moves with respect to the new geopolitical realities - and I have posted about this to you previously.
     
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  20. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    First off I didn't correct my previous post I clarified it because you seem confused as to what we were talking about.
    Gish gallop post are impossible to respond to as they are intended to be so ill pick the low hanging fruit.
    China averaged 10% GDP for decades and now it is roughly half that. As recently as 2016 it was 7.9 % so yeah I'd say tarrifs have had the intended effect.
    Now as for their current GDP compared to ours and the supposed lead they have over us it's an apples oranges comparison. Even in the 2% range we have full employment and a solid economy. We are a mature economy that has reached equilibrium and a 4% GDP would be comparable to China in the low teens. They are at a point where they need incredible numbers to employ their populations and sustain tranquility in a country that only puts up with totalitarian rule do to prosperity. China's current GDP of 6% which would be beyond compression in this country barely keeps their heads above water and any further slippage will be catastrophic for their economy.
    Beyond these brief points I can only say most of your post is delusional. We could "whisper in ears and other countries would come running"? We have always had to force an agenda to get the world to play along. Reagan knew that with the Cold War when the world cheered Gorby and dissed Reagan. Nothing new here except we have a new Reagan taking on the established order.
     
  21. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    gee somehow, you know more about china, then thousands highly educated academic researcher + thousands more who deal with china for years. All that from fox news in the comfort of your sofa lol
     
  22. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    I dont know what they know about china

    But what they are saying is intrue

    And btw many academics agree that china is a threat

    So dont pull that old lib trick of “everyone agrees” on me
     
  23. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    I have a simple question for you

    Is America making unreasonable demands on china?

    Fair and balanced trade that protects our workers and our economy is a good thing in my opinion
     
  24. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Would you allow US companies be tried by Chinese courts?
     
  25. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    i'm sure they are academice say china is a threat, but how to handle it is much different then trump. For example Obama TPP. what trump did was sacrifice America and benefit other countries. China just need switch its deal making with EU/japan, and other place.
     

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