2020 HOR elections

Two years ago, I started THIS THREAD on the 2018 mid-term elections for the HOR.

This year, I am doing the same, but keeping the excel-table results online and posting the updates on Twitter. You will need to go to twitter to see the updates.

I will be working the online-table pretty much every day and fleshing it out. At the moment, the first two tabs are the important ones. The sorting tables have yet to be worked out. It's a time-costly process.

-Stat

 

The stats as of today, September 16, 2019:




Comparison to exactly 2 years ago to this day:

 

I'd say if the election were held today the GOP would pick up 8-10 seats. I based that on what I classify as at risk seats or seats that could switch. Competitive seats or at least seats that look competitive today. I place 35 Democratic seats in that column along with 18 GOP. In the generic congressional vote the Democrats have a 47-38 lead. Which would indicate a 20 or more seat pick up. But I think the Democrats picked up most of the winnable normal Republican district seats in 2018. That in 2020 the Republicans will recoup a few of traditional GOP held districts.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

My take on the House this far out. Too early to make any real accurate predictions. A lot depends on who is the Democratic presidential nominee. One that could attract the independent voter in a way Hillary couldn't, the Democrats might pick up a couple of seats. One that is disliked by independents as much as Hillary was, then the Republicans could pick up more than 8-10. Depends.

 

Thanks to statiskhengist for his numerical prowess, and to perotista for a well thought out-opening comments.

The unknown major factor that we know right now is, of course, what and how the President is going to affect voting through his behavior.

 

Of course you have the right to your opinion, but generic House polling is showing D+9 right now:


And this is from RCP, a right-leaning site that doesn't include all polling.

In 2018, in the HOR, the Ds won nationally by +8.58% (+8.6) and picked up 43 seats, lost 3 seats, making for a net +40.

If a +9 continues into 2020, I see no way that the Republicans make any gains at all. In fact, I see at least 30 R held seats in danger (all of which were won by +6 or less):

 

True about the generic which I quoted. In 2018 the GOP held the majority, 240-195. I thought the Republicans were over extended. The net gain of 40 seats wiped away that over extension plus netted the Democrats plenty of traditional Republican districts. I fully expect some of those traditional Republican districts which were won by the democrats to revert to their normal party regardless of the generic congressional polls. One also has to remember there were around 35 Republican congressional critters retiring which left those seats open in 2018.

Now instead of having to defend 240 seats, the Republicans must defend 200. Its the Democrats defending the most seats, 235 give or take a vacant seat or two. As I see it today, I see around 35 Democratic seats that could switch vs. 18 GOP held seats. I think the rest are fairly safe or in the non-competitive column at the time. I have always paid more attention to at risk seats than the generic congressional polls. The generic is nationwide which could be right on when all the votes are counted. But the House is determined one district at a time. This is how I see it today. As I always say this early, subject to change as we really don't know who will be challenging who or how many open seats and retirements.

 

That being said, the Rs aren't really busting down the doors to challenge Ds in many districts where the D wins were lean. When you don't run, you can't win. And I can prove that, right HERE. I believe that the House field is far more fluid than you believe. I mean, no one, and I mean, no one, was looking at OK-05 last year, and yet, deep in ruby red Oklahoma, an American-Indian woman won.

And just one more thing: the generic in 2018 was all pointing to an aggregate D+8 win and on election night, it was so. The press and media did a shitty job of reporting it for the wave it was because my gawd if a seat doesn't flip within one second of poll closing times then nothing happened, nöööö....

As the season progresses, I will enjoy discussing a number of House Seats with you.

As always, a pleasure to hear from you.

-Stat

 

We'll see. Way too far out to come to any real meaningful predictions. I don't put that much stock in the generic. Some do. I'd rather look at the at risk seats and go from there. The generic presidential vote puts the Democratic candidate up by 5, generic congressional polls by 8. Very close when considering the margin of error.

Who the Democrats nominate could have an effect as to pickup's and loses on both sides of the aisle. I bring that up as in 2016 with independents totally disliking Hillary more than Trump, 51% of them voted for the Republican congressional critters vs. 47% for the Democrats. No Hillary to off set independents dislike of Trump, 54% of independents voted for the Democratic Congressional candidates vs. 42% for the Republicans. I think a Democratic presidential candidate attractive to independents could give you what you're looking for, a sizable gain for the democrats in the House. One that is disliked about as much as Trump is among independents or more, you're looking at the GOP picking up seats, perhaps more than 10.

I think in presidential years the house and the presidency is interconnected. Sure, some years more than others. Some presidents have coat tails, others don't. Trump didn't. Obama did in 2008 and didn't in 2012 pretty much retaining the status quo. Too many questions left other than to say as of today, this is the way I see it.

 

No, 8 is not even close when comparing the margin of error. 5 is in the county, anyway, of the margin of error.

 

Update: as of today, 27.09.2019, there are now 1,494 declared candidates for the HOR. There were 1,305 when I began tracking in the 3rd week of August.




The Ds have a slight edge in candidates declared. In 2017 at this time, the Ds had a massive edge, but then, they were the party out of power in the HOR. Here:




Right now, since the Rs are the party out of power, there should be many more R candidates than D candidates, but that edge is simply not emerging. And a great abundance of R candidates is happening in R districts that are now open races, meaning, R candidates are happening where the GOP is likely on the defensive, not on the offense. Only a handful of D pick-up districts from 2018 are seeing a relatively large number of R challengers throwing their hats into the ring. And when you look at their FEC financial disclosures, the numbers for the Rs look absolutely dismal right now - a HUGE BIGLY difference over 2017 at this juncture in time. These details are important to note, I believe.

The ratio M to F among candidates is still very stabile, at 70% male, 30% female.

 

So, when I began collecting the data for this topic for 2020, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR (see: OP)
Today, October 1, 2019, there are not 1,505 declared candidates, +200 over the date when I began.



D-candidates have, in terms of sheer numbers, a +4.85% edge over R-candidates.
In terms of gender, the numbers have been extremely stable, at ca 70% men, 30% women. It has been this way ever since I started collecting data on this.

On this corresponding Tuesday in 2017, there were 1,583 candidates, but the percentages were very different:


-Stat

 

Fascinating article about TX Congressional and State House races.

https://www.esquire.com/news-politi...blican-state-legislators-wont-run-reelection/

TX turning purple in 2020 is theoretically possible albeit still a very long shot IMO.

 

"I mean, no one, and I mean, no one, was looking at OK-05 last year, and yet, deep in ruby red Oklahoma, an American-Indian woman won"

Er... what?

What about physical characteristics is relevant?

 

As of today, we are seeing some major marquee races from 2018 shaping up as possible rematches in 2020:

CA-21: David Valadao is challenging TJ Cox to get his seat back
CA-45: Mimi Walters is challenging Katie Porter to get her seat back, but she is far behind other Republicans financially.
CA-50: Ammar Campa-Najjar is challenging indicted congressman Duncan Hunter a second time. Duncan is facing a serious challenge in his own party from Darrell Issa, who retired in 2018.
GA-06: Karen Handel is challenging Lucy McBath to get her seat back.
IA-03: David Young is challenging Cindy Axne to get his seat back.
IA-04: J.D. Scholten is challenging Steve King again.
MN-01: Dan Feehan is challenging Jim Hagedorn again.
NY-22: Claudia Tenney is challenging Anthony Brindisi to get her seat back.

There are other examples but these are the ones I have at the top of my head right now.
2020 is going to be a big year for hot marquee races in the HOR, I think.

 

Nice attempt to troll, it won't work.

Here, enlighten yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Oklahoma

Kendra Horn is the second woman to ever serve in the Oklahoma congressional delegation. THAT is a detail worth noting.

 

"Nice attempt to troll"

Smear

"THAT is a detail worth noting."

Why?

 

Bye-bye.

 

Indeed they have. People are well aware of which party foisted this madman on us and have continued to support him.
"**** you, we won", is not a winning slogan 4 years later

 

Whomever becomes the Dem candidate should run with the "Hindsight is 2020" slogan IMO.

 

When I began gathering candidate data on 21.08.2019, there were 1,305 declared candidates for the US-HOR. Today, 03.10.2019, there are 1,528 such candidates. M to F = 70%/30%, as it has been the entire time.




On this same Thursday in October, 2017, exactly 2 years ago, there were: 1601



There are a number of seats unoficially open, simply because the incumbent has not yet filed with the FEC. Those open seats (HERE THE ENTIRE DATA) are indicated in italics. Now, as was the case with GA-06 back in 2018, the incumbent may just be waiting a long time to file. This happens with some incumbents who have won over and over with overwhelming margins and don't feel the pressure to file early (translation: their warchests are already full), but if you look at the data, you will see lots of seats with considerable older members where quite possibly, retirements are in the waiting, and I mean, in both parties. For instance, in TX-30, E.B. Johnson (class of 1992, meaning, she has won 14 times in a row) has not yet declared. In 2017, she declared very early. She was the first registered nurse to win a seat in the HOR. Born in 1935, she will turn 84 come December 3rd, 2019, so it's reasonable to consider that she is taking time thinking about whether to run or not purely because of age and health. In fact, I respect people who take time to consider these factors. Until yesterday, her seat had absolutely no candidates. As of this morning, Shenita Cleveland (46 years old) has filed with the FEC as a Democratic candidate.

In OK-04, Republican incumbent Tom Cole has not yet declared his candidacy. Elected in 2002, he has now been elected 9 times consecutively to this seat. Born April 1949, he is now 70 years old. At this time in 2017, he had already declared and it took until January 2018 to find a Democrat willing to challenge him. This time around, 2 Ds have already filed with the FEC and one unknown R (David Kimmel Hill, a Trumpnut who subscribes to conspiracy theories). Wait and see.

I make no judgement on candidates who have not yet declared, but if there are incumbents with a pattern of declaring early who suddenly are not saying anything, that's usually reason to at least perk up one's eyes and ears and check the scene out, nöööö

-Stat

 

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT

People, @Derideo_Te just broke the internet!

 

I do things a bit different, I don't pay much if any attention to the generic congressional polls. I like to divide the house seats into competitive/at risk and safe seats. I did a re-look at those this morning and came up with 32 Democratic seats at risk vs. 18 Republican. Now there is this big unknown, impeachment which could change these numbers. Remember out of the 40 seats the Democrats picked up in 2018 31 were in districts won by Trump in 2016. How these freshmen congressmen vote on the articles of impeachment, I'm sure that will happen. It could have a direct bearing on the outcome of those 31 districts. Which way, I don't know.

As of this AM, I'm still sticking with the 5-9 net pick up for the GOP. This hasn't took impeachment vote into consideration as that is a future event. FYI, I had 62 Republican seats in the at risk column in 2018 vs. 8 for the Democrats. I forecast a net gain of 38 seats for the Democrats, they picked up 40. I didn't even look at the generic congressional polls in 2018 and I probably won't in 2020.

There lies my reasoning, at risk seats of changing parties, 62R - 8D in 2018 vs. 18R - 32D for 2020. At this point in time. Being this is dynamic, these numbers will change constantly. I do think impeachment may have a great effect one way or the other. A long with who the Democrats nominate. Will there be coat tails or not.

 

Can't defend your bigoted comment, eh?

 

AS of today:

 

I wrote a blog-post about the current state of the race in the US-HOR, including some side-statistics that I only mention now and again.


https://statistikhengstswelt.blogspot.com/2019/10/state-of-race-for-us-house-of.html

There are currently 153 seats that are, as of this moment in time, shut-outs, meaning that one or both parties has not yet fielded even one candidate for those seats, respectively. This will, of course, change and the reasons for why are listed in the update.

Also, it's about time to start looking at FEC financial reports, so I used NY-14 and CA-23 as examples.