China has already lost the trade war

Discussion in 'Asia' started by SEAL Team V, Sep 27, 2019.

  1. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    My Chinese contacts inform me that the trade war is having a depressing effect on the economy.
     
  2. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The recession was caused by a number of factors related to the U.S. housing market and the panic caused when the over leveraged banks were exposed. You are confusing cause and effect.
     
  3. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure they don't like it, but it's not 400 billion. So far this year its 40 billion less than last year.
    To put it in perspective 2016 was 20 billion less than 2015 and nothing was going on.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2019
  4. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Because real GDP is much lower than 6%, therefore the percentage exports of GDP is actually higher... however who know... their books are a mystery

    Just go and learn about the Chinese economy ok, how do you think the ghost cities came about... I'm tired of having to explain it to people who can't be bothered picking up a book.
     
  5. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    The TPP was better than going it alone.
     
  6. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    You can think what you want about their economy even if you don't know what you're talking about.
     
  7. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just go and read a book ok
     
  8. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    No I am not. The comparison was not if the causes but in the effects. The effect of the recession was a reduction in the GDP of 3%. Unemployment went from 5-12 percent.
    Exports to the US account for 5% of China's GDP. You remove that 5% you get a recession similar to what we had in 2007/8.
     
  9. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    no it is closer to 5%. most western observers believe china overstates their GDP by more than 10%. Total exports to the US is almost 600bill. At an adjusted more accurate 12trill you get much closer to 5%.
     
  10. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    the 400 bill is the delta between us/china trade imbalance. That is the ultimate downside.
     
  11. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    What makes you think it would ever go to zero?
     
  12. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Are you okay? The total of all Chinese exports to the U.S. is less than 4% of their GDP. Tariffs on their exports aren't enough leverage to get them to change their ways.
     
  13. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Even at 5%, it's not enough force their hand. With the TPP, we were moving in a direction where their trade practices were going to cost them with a much larger chunk of their market.
     
  14. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    But not enough to make them kowtow.
     
  15. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    No, the TPP had nothing to do with taming China.
     
  16. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    Are you really connected to the CIA so that you would know that?

    Frankly, I'm skeptical.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2019
  17. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    How many times can China lose and come back, competitive?
    And "The West" ?

    Sort of like how many wars of annihilation can Israel lose, and . . . .


    Get It Or Not


    Moi
    :oldman:




    No :flagcanada:
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2019
  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    China has bought out so many folks that Trump had to do this alone, and he's done a damn good job. He kept consumer prices stable even as he collects $Billions in tariffs from the Chinese who refuse to stop stealing from us, one of their best customers. Only in a Free-Market does one understand that "the customer is always right." Because in a free market the customer always has a choice. These are foreign concepts to the Chi-Coms but the steadily increasing tariffs by Trump is helping them to think them through. Now US investors in China need to give some things some careful thought: Why Are American Investors Funding Chinese Fraud?

    Wall Street’s ETF issuers and index providers have funneled billions of dollars of American investor money out of the U.S. and into Chinese companies pushing the “you can’t miss out on China growth” narrative. The problem for investors is they have no insight into whether these companies are growing, profitable, or losing money because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regularly asserts a national security privilege to prevent routine audits from taking place. This intentionally keeps investors in the dark and subjects them to a risk of fraud that is very real.

    Why has this happened? Wall Street is using a loophole that allows Chinese companies to avoid the SEC’s rigorous company-specific disclosure and audit regulations and still be included in an index sold to investors through an ETF. Normally, ETF issuers rely on index providers to conduct diligence on each company they put into the index, but diligence in China is impossible because the Communist Party won’t allow it. This roadblock should have immediately stopped the sale of these securities to America’s retail investors. But, in true Wall Street fashion, it didn’t because the ETF issuers desperately want access to the Chinese market and the index providers bowed to a regime that pressured them to increase China’s access to global capital. As a result, neither the index providers nor the ETF issuers know whether the Chinese companies in the indexes they sold are Enron-like frauds, arms of the Chinese military, or supporting human rights abuses.

    Check your ETF for Chinese exposure and get your money out of China until they adopt international disclosure standards.
     
  19. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Nonsense.
     
  20. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I'm not, nor was I ever, a CIA employee.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
  21. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    OK, I mistook your handle then.

    But where do you get your expertise on the Chinese economy?
     
  22. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    That is the worse case scenario for china, I don't think it ever would. But if I was going to lose a customer to competition, I rather it be a customer that I sold 150 bill of goods rather than a customer that I sold 600 bill of goods. China has 600 bill to lose and the US has 150 bill to lose. No one is going to convince me that we have more to lose than China. India would love to make 200 bill more of goods for us, and this would strengthen them as a bulwark against Chinese expansion in Asia. And this is what we should be doing. China does not want to play fair, encourage business that is there to relocate to India, so that hteir goods are not subject to that tariff.
     
  23. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    Only If you believe that china is a 14 trill GDP and not a 12trill as is the estimate of multinational banks. The US is 30% of all thier exports. So I don't know what the end game for China is, the EU does not allow china to dump into the EU like we do. Heah, I am perfectly fine with increasing the tariffs.
     
  24. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That depends on us maintaining allies. Ultimately, China will have a more lucrative market than ours and our "former allies" will choose accordingly. And, of course, China and others will stop purchasing our debt. Its a global economy.
     
  25. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    China purchases less of our debt than britain does. and I understand that china is investing in Africa like the Soviet Union did in the 60s, I think they will find that Africa is just to unstable to every be the market the US is and I think India will become over the next ten years as china was during the 90s. and chian won't have to them money to purchase our debt if they don't export to us.
     

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