Is Yangs UBI going to work?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by ChristopherABrown, Jan 13, 2020.

  1. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Andrew Yang is offering voters a “uniform basic income (UBI)” of $1,000 per month if they vote for him.

    The money will come from taxes that major corporations are NOT currently paying but could be by law. Will corporations fold if stock holders and exec’s don’t get the big $?

    Will this work?
     
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  2. Kal'Stang

    Kal'Stang Well-Known Member

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    I've listened to Yangs reasoning on why he is suggesting the UBI and it IS sound. You really can't get past the fact that automation IS happening and it IS going to take jobs. And simply suggesting "retraining people" people isn't going to work as he has shown evidence of. There is a factory in Japan who's sole goal by the owners is to make it a completely automated factory. IIRC before they started automating it they had around 1500 employees working there. Last I heard they now have around 50? I think it was? With a further goal of reducing it down to 12...and then lower.

    As for how to implement it? That is the tricky part. A UBI IS going to be needed and frankly it should come sooner rather than later. But implementing it isn't going to be easy. People are too greedy.
     
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  3. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Thanks! A very basic reasonable analysis that I pretty much agree with.

    So it comes down to a spiritual, psychological issue between wants and needs. Material capitalism is in trouble again and we don’t know any other kind, at least not widely.
     
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  4. Hotdogr

    Hotdogr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This topic, to me, is the real puzzle that needs to be solved.

    We live in a society that requires that people generate revenue in order to survive. The conundrum is that technology is reducing the need for workers while at the same time, population growth continues.

    It is unsustainable.

    I don't know what the answer is, but my feeling is that UBI is not it. It may be an interim patch, but will not be the ultimate solution.
     
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  5. Right is the way

    Right is the way Well-Known Member

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    I agree people are very greedy, so people think they deserve other peoples money for doing nothing. Can you image that.
     
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  6. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I listened to his arguments, and I read his book, a couple of comments.

    1) I think he might be right about automation in 20 or 30 years, but at the moment he's jumping the gun.

    2) I believe that throwing money at the people (rich and poor) (skilled and non skilled) arbitrarily is a terrible idea.

    3) Human nature suggests that the vast majority of the money would be spent in the worst possible ways, useless gadgets and toys, drug habits, working less and trying less.

    I'd either be doing one or both of following
    1) massively up my 401K contribution, but that might be silly since I'd expect massive inflation to follow, so why bother?
    2) massively increase my stockpile of food/firearms for the impending crash of the dollar, I'm going to need to kill to survive.

    My "work" income likely won't change, nor will my spouses income (except for all the free cash Yang would give away of course) , if anything our primary incomes might go up temporarily with all the initial crazy spending that would happen in the first couple years before the crash.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
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  7. Kal'Stang

    Kal'Stang Well-Known Member

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    So, what do YOU suggest? Work harder and learn a new trade at age 50 or 60? Even in your 40's you're starting to get to the point where learning a new trade and getting into that trade is harder. People want younger and younger people grow up with newer technologies than those that are older so understand it better. Its quite understandable that corporations and businesses would want them over a 40 something that is trying to learn a new skill.

    Look at it this way, do you know anyone that is old? If you know multiple how many of them know the difference between DOS and C++? How about HDMI? Do they know what that stands for and why its superior to an analog cable?

    This isn't about "people think they deserve other peoples money for doing nothing". That excuse is really just a cop out for people that either A: Don't understand the situation and/or B: are greedy themselves.
     
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  8. Kal'Stang

    Kal'Stang Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he is. 10 years ago I never could have imagined a McDonalds store having no cashiers to take your order and your money. Yet we're seeing it happen more than more. And I certainly would never have thought of self driving trucks driving our goods around. Yet that is happening also. Imagine 10 more years, it will be even more common.

    Quoting both your points here as I feel that they're really one and the same thing. And as it stands currently you're right. Which is part of the reason why I think implementing it is going to be tricky. SIMPLY giving out the money willy nilly is not a good idea. Something needs to be implemented to divert people away from these negatives and towards something positive and productive. Its why I support the idea of UBI, but believe that the implementation of it and considerations of all the consequences MUST be thought out very carefully.

    I'm lucky, I know how to grow my own crops and I've got access to 15 acres out in the boonies...and I know how to shoot a gun if worse comes to worse. ;)
     
  9. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    I have to agree. People not only must generate revenue, but consume as well. If we have a period when automation takes jobs faster than people can find new jobs, the whole consumer-capitalist system takes a hit. Not too many seem to want to address that problem. The requirement for constant growth can't continue for ever.
     
  10. Kal'Stang

    Kal'Stang Well-Known Member

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    Honestly I think that the long term solution lays in the direction of encouraging people towards the hard sciences and arts.....and making such education a lot easier to get than it currently is.
     
  11. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I hear you, and again, I read his full arguments not only in his book, but several articles and interviews. (The shapiro interview is surprisingly good, and i'm no fan of shaprio) Granted, my original premise was biased somewhat, but I was willing the hear him out.

    note: I went to mcd's this morning, a human took my order, a human cooked my order, a human bagged my order and handed it to me. I'm NOT saying that this will be the case forever BUT the kiosks inside the store kind of suck and unless its lunchtime and there is a line that I prefer to avoid I walk right past them. I haven't seen a driverless truck (yet) but i'll concede that its the next logical step for bulk shipping, and in 10 years I expect them to be more common, but not commonplace, 15 years maybe more commonplace. (my basis for this is pretty weak i'll admit) What I expect to see is older trucks being replaced gradually by attrition rather than seeing standard truckers just disappear virtually overnight, and honestly if that DOES happen, 12k isn't going to solve the full time truckers problems, it won't even begin to solve them, he's still screwed unless he finds new employment in the transportation industry for local stuff or retrains himself for another occupation.

    In the end besides the potential benefits of long haul trucking (driverless is ideal for a trip from California to NY) you still need staff to load/unload/maintain, and there will still be a need for human interference on many things. Short haul trucking is more complex. For example the home that was built next store to me had dozens of large truck delivery's that required human involvement and I can't see a robot being capable (in the next 10) of what humans did with their cargo, unloading, stacking, opening garage door, locking up behind, etc etc, its a bit complicated and very personalized for each stop along the way. That's my 2c.

    With that said, I think a smarter approach to the issues around automation in general would be to seek out training, education, and re-training of those individuals in occupations that are at risk, and I think we'll simply see a lack of hiring in certain occupations (trucking is a good example) and as older drivers retire they are replaced by machines, but IMO it will be gradual and take 20 years minimum for the difference to be measurable and have real impact, and in that time the older workers will just drop out of the workforce.

    Yang seems like a sharp guy but I tend to believe that think tanks types like him don't quite realize how the "norms" get stuff done, and whats involved. I can't see an end to electricians, plumbers, roofers, landscapers, etc, but I do see automation making them more efficient, like the guy that laid the irrigation system down next door, it was 2 guys and a fascinating machine that laid the pipe, in a non automated world you would need 4-6 guys because it would be more labor intensive. So the machine definitely replaces the 2 grunts, but two skilled workers are still needed for the more intricate stuff.

    I can get into it at length at another time because its a fascinating subject, but basically I feel that Yang has some interesting views but he's a bit ahead of his time and needs to spend a little more time in the field than in the boardroom.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
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  12. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    His much of your pay are you willing to give up and give to give to someone else who doesn't work are makes less than you?
     
  13. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    I know lots that what PLC is do you? I know lots who would do better working on robots than an assembly line or construction.
    Ever seen the pictures of the old telephone exchanges with thousands of women working true switchboards? Then they were automated with mechanical switching. What happened was there massive and permanent unemployment? How many blacksmiths do we have now compared to 100 years ago?
     
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  14. Right is the way

    Right is the way Well-Known Member

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    We have millions of illegals working right now do those jobs. Suck it up and do what it takes. I am 50 and know those things.
     
  15. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I thought his plan was going to finance UBI with a 10% VAT tax?
     
  16. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Automation like what we are approaching will not create more jobs, it will eliminate them.
    Long range truck drivers account for 3.5 million jobs, 3.8 million jobs are in fast food, — these two industries alone will see retractions of 90%+ and while we will see some of them converted to maintenance, stocking, IT — the vast majority will be eliminated.

    This doesn’t even begin to address the jobs lost to people simply not needing a car once automation becomes mainstream. Analysts in the field believe that more than half of the cars on the road today will no longer be needed if you can summon a vehicle at anytime at low cost. That disrupts the auto manufacturers, drivers, traffic enforcement, even insurance companies will be reduced.

    We are already seeing cashiers replaced, inventory staff, wait staff...

    It is sheer ignorance to believe that what happened with automation in the telecom industry will be mirrored here.
     
  17. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think its a terrible idea. Thats not to say I wouldn't happily pay my house off twice as fast and retire early, just that I think everyone is going to do something similar and the economy will drop out.

    Also, call me crazy, but I predict rents jumping by about $1000 per month nationwide, almost overnight ;)

    Is Yang even still in the running?
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
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  18. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Only it the miles traveled goes down and people LIKE THEIR CARS. Here's one of mine

    upload_2020-1-13_20-16-8.png

    You think I'm gonna give it up for some vanilla drab car I can "summon" and pay mileage to use? I own it and don't pay anyone to use it.
     
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  19. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    And even where they have tried it doesn't work. I think it is in Finland where they tried it and yes they found that the people getting it were "happier", but they didn't increase their lot in life they didn't suddenly go "OH I'll work more now"
     
  20. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Yea, agreed on all points. There are other forms of capitalism, but we will not be able to use them until we can get absolute justice from courts to clarify the reality. We won't even be able to recognize them until that happens.
     
  21. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Good point Mike! Searching on that for comparisons elsewhere I found this google result.

    Financing UBI in the US : BasicIncome
    [​IMG]https://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/comments/aybexu/financing_ubi_in_the_us/
    10% VAT, will bring in around 800 Billion, compared with Switzerland that has a 7.7% VAT, that sounds right New revenue: 500-600 Billion Less medical spending and prison, 100-200 Billion.
    So it is working.

    What is said is that the corporations that are adding automation will see increased profits, and the VAT can be mostly applied there, so it is a temporary fix that will have to be tried to determine how well it actually works.
     
  22. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Did I say you were?

    Why bother responding if all you have is low information rhetoric?

    Congratulations on your $5k E85... I guess...
     
  23. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    It's not a $5, as if it mattered, and I didn't see where you excluded me from your general statement about people would give up cars for these autonomous ones they would have to summon when they needed one. Most people love to drive and love their cars. Why do you think we have so many different makes and models and options.

    You attempt to get snarky notwithstanding. Only makes your post look less credible.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
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  24. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Well if all that manifested itself what would be different and better? How would that benefit me?
     
  25. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    So a VAT tax that will cost me more than the income I would receive?
     
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