At this point it's more about optimizing returns. Really can't lose long term if you invest Monday morning.
I will most likely leave it where it is and hope for a bounceback. Besides, $500k is Couch Cushion Money, so why worry?
I don't think the decline will end for a while.World wide business has been seriously impacted, it has impacted everything from professional sports to every form of transportation and the fuels that drive them,everything in travel and leisure,footwear,clothing,food you name it, it has seen a severe decline over the past month or more and into the immediate future.
I carry a broad range of asset classes, and then re-balance them when the allocations get out of whack by more than 10%. So I ended up buying some DIA, FVD, and QQQ; and selling some TLT, GLD, and HYD. Overall, I'm down about 5.3% from my YTD high. I have an Excel spreadsheet that alerts me of each "buy" and "sell" signal, so it's all a pretty mechanical process. Still though, it's a bit nerve wracking to see such a broad market sell off. It took just 1 week for me to lose about 7 months of gains.
I buy depressed good companies whenever the market drives them near their 52 week low. IOW, was very active Thursday and Friday, and will continue buying as the stock price for strong businesses drops.
Always sell your big winners especially when there is a known threat of a crash. Buy as the crash intensifies. Most of the gains achieved by stock market investors come from dividends and buying low during a severe correction.
It has been my experience and observation that if you have a typical 401K it is in a power dive and you will never recover what you will lose. The best strategy is to alway jump out at the first sign of potential trouble and go to a more safe harbor, which can be hard to do in some cases. If you try to ride it out you will suffer.
I didn't sell in 2008. As you say, it took four years to gain it back. I would rather park it for a couple of months and start where I stoppled than take four years to gain it back and start where I was last week. I guess your argument is that I would not have made more money if I pulled out when the market tanked in 2008 and reinvested when it started to gain again? I know what the market has to be doing when I get back in and it won't take me four years to make back what I lost. I will go back in when the market has made constant gains for a week and the media has ended the "the sky is falling" reaction to the virus.
I stayed when Spain had credit problems. It was a blip and I didn't want to play the reentry game for such a small blip. That's would have been a risk for me. Same thing for the China tariff issue. That was pretty much driven by emotion. There are people that are much better at predicting the market than I am that do that kind of stuff. I agree. This time isn't the time for me to stay greedy.
The Futures are looking good for Monday so far... As of this post the Dow is up +327 https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ Small sample size, but at least it is trending in the right direction. The company I worked for in the 08 crash price went from $60 to $13 during the crash. A women who had worked there for about 20 years was all in on her 401k on company stock & she waited & finally sold at $14 2 days later the stock rebounded “today $116” from a high of $139 two weeks ago.
Hey, I would have also liked to have sold at the top in Dec. 2007, and got back in at the bottom in March 2009. The only little problem: At the time, it was impossible to know when the top and the bottom occurred. Similarly, nobody knows when the bottom occurs in the current crash. It is entirely possible that the market will regain its losses within the next two weeks. What happens then? You'll sit on the sidelines, having locked in your loss, and you'll have to wait for the next crash to get back in. In the meantime, you'll lose return. Time in the market is better than timing the market. Don't give in to your emotions.
yep, knee-jerkin fools and their money... why anyone thinks they lost when they haven't actually sold yet, is mind boggling...
I did the same thing. I had a loan at 7% from the credit union and told my wife to pay it off. Had planned to pay it off this year anyways. Freed up about 500 a month for me to invest when things look better.
I've been looking at the trend on the bid and ask on my stocks and it tends to be pointing up. Thinking if we have short term rally I may lighten up a little and hold that money until the next leg down. I'm heavy in FANG stocks so I may buy some protection with FNGD (FANG Down) Thx ronv.
GS is predicting 2 rates cuts in the next couple of weeks, and a major QE operation. The market may wander around at lower levels for awhile, but with these Fed actions what comes out on the other side could be a truly roaring economy ... and stock market.
Well the VIX (volitility index) almost hit 50 and closed out around 40. I hope that's a sign were near an oversold condition. I do have a couple stocks I would like to add too. There are a lot of good companies but too many have strong supply chains to China, Good luck Ddyad.
I had to smile reading your post. Your buying the DIA and QQQ and I'm lighting up on the SPY and QQQ and I'm holding tight on SCHD. Your selling TLT, GLD, and HYD and I'm buying TLT, adding to GLD and just bought $6000 in a 1 year CD at 2.96 %. I'm out of High Yield at present. If the opportunity presents itself I would like to take a position in ZM, TDOC and IRDM. TSLA if it hits $500.(It would only be a trade; not a long time holding). Anything you like if the opportunity came?
It seems to be harder for people to cash in the winners than to buy low. I usually put in low limit orders during days with big drops. Buying low and slow after a lot of research works for me most of the time.
