Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Millions of untested Mexicans illegally entering the US, what could possibly go wrong?

 

China needs to accept responsibility for their complicity in this global mess.

 

So does trump

 

If you really need a different name, why not bat flu - you know kind of like swine flu?

 

Bat flu? Does it work against the joker?

 

Actually, I think that is an extremely important point worth noting. Only, the article refers to a document put out by the italian government, I am fluent in Italian, and I can tell you that what the Washington Examiner "deduced" is not the truth. In fact, it is a lie, and I can prove it.

Here is the document:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

First, they did not check the medical records of all of the dead. In fact, they did a sampling of only 355 out of 2003 deceased: 17.7% of the dead, and based their finding on that 17.7%. 17.7% is probably good to get a feeling for the situation, for for cold, hard, statistics, would be miserable sampling.

What I just wrote is found in point 3. Here is point 3:


Here a translation of point three:

So, actually, only 352 of 2003 dead people in Italy have been verified has having had between 1 and 3 or more pre-existing conditions.
That is 17.57% of the 2003 dead people listed here, not 99%. Now, almost half of those 355 did indeed have 3 or more pathologies before COVID-19.

For any media outlet to claim that that is 99% of all deaths is just plain old lying. It's that simple. What the Italians are saying is that 99% of the sampling (which again, I will point out, is only 17.7% of all of the victims) had between 1 and 3 pre-existing conditions, but they did not list what exactly classifies as a pre-existing condition.

I am not accusing you of dishonesty at all, for I don't expect you to be fluent in Italian, and I indeed thank you for providing the article link.

What IS in the article that can be very helpful is the breakdown of those who have died by age and gender. Here a screenshot of the graphic:



I don't really think that a translation is necessary. You can see that considerably more men are dying than women and the vast majority of the deaths are between 70 and 90 years of age. So, based on the huge hypermajority of elderly people who have died, we could also assume that the lion's share of them did indeed have pre-existing conditions, but there are no numbers to prove this and it is already known that the disease preys more easily upon the weaker among us.

Chart 7 in the pdf says that the average amount of time from first symptoms to death = 8 days.

Also, unrelated to your posting, I have now heard from multiple sources in Germany, Italy, Austria and Switzerland that people with the Blood Group "A" (A-pos, A-neg) are more likely to be infected with COVID-19, but I have not seen the data in written form yet, so as far as I am concerned, at this time, it's just hearsay, but it is not unusual for a virus to find a better backdoor through one blood group than the other.

-Stat

 

Are you referring to "COVID-19", aka the Coronavirus? Because that is what it is called. It is not called "the Chinese Virus". That is not its name.

 

Not germane to this thread. Only leads to flame-throwing. We don't need that here.

 

Not germane to this thread. Only leads to flame-throwing. We don't need that here.

 

Thank you for the detailed report. We need more of this but you and I are extrapolating the much of the same and coming to the same conclusion. Old people are at risk and yes old people are likely to die from respiratory diseases or cardiac issues.
My question regarding the death rate as a percentage, how do we know how many recovered and were never counted because they did not know they had contracted the virus and thought it was just another form of the flu?

 

To put a finer point on the sampling note that you make, to sample 352 out of a population of 2003 yields a Margin of error of 4.74%. Note (sadly) that Italy has passed China for the number of deaths and currently sits at 3405. Changing the total population to 3405 only changes the MoE slightly (to 4.95%).

 

Hmmm, I think that question can be answered automatically: if they had tested positive for COVID-19 and indeed they did, for they are in the official statistic, and then they died, then we can 100% say that they died of COVID-19. Even if another illness may have been attacking their body, COVID-19 gave that body the final shove over the great divide. Basta.

Yes, we are coming to the same conclusion, but I take strong objection to Washington Examiner blatantly lying in oder to sell news. There is a HUGE difference between saying (and proving) that 99% of the dead (G-d rest their souls) in Italy already had pre-existing conditions and to have the facts at hand that the 99% is based on a sampling (in German: Stichprobe) that is less than one in five people but still claim that it refers to all deaths.

That would be like seeing an end poll showing Clinton 57 /Trump 42, Clinton +15, and regardless of the end results, which were actually Clinton +2.09, to claim that Clinton won by +15. People would be screaming like wombats on meth had anyone published such an outlandish claim,nööööö

 

While waiting for the update from @Statistikhengst today, I noticed the numbers for Italy dropped on Worldometer. They are NOT GOOD. +5,322 new infections, and +427 deaths, making Italy the first country to surpass China's death toll.

Only two days ago, I was pointing out what I thought was a positive correlation in that both rates of new cases of COVID-19 and raw number of cases appeared to be peaking while they hung in the 3,000's for a few days in a row. That is no longer the case, and I cannot see anything but more dark times ahead in Italy for the immediate future. Here are the numbers as they stood just yesterday:



The numbers speak for themselves. Pretty much every metric is getting worse. While the Case Growth % will stay in the ~13% range, the fact that they are not falling any further means that we may still be a ways from a flattening of the curve. I can only hope this growth in new cases is occurring outside the Lombardy region as at least distributing where the sick are more evenly would release some of the strain that is causing the high number of deaths we are seeing.

 

March 19, 2020, interim report.

Italy has already reported 427 dead from COVID-19 today and just as bad, 5,322 new cases.

So, looking at key individual countries first:



Overall:



The death rate has risen yet again, this time to 4.15%.

So, the current numbers for today in comparison to the last 3 weeks:



The percentage of recovered cases continues to fall.

Full report at the end of my day.

-Stat

 

After reading your post, where I was going was,
it is easy to determine how many died from the virus.
It is easy to count the number of patients that tested positive for the virus that either lived or died.
How many people got sick from the virus, never ever thought to get tested because their symptoms were too mile or they just treated it like a case of the flu and they recovered x days later and went back to their life.
I am of the opinion there are thousands if not tens of thousands in the latter category which would really skew the death rate percentage down and the age groups that are getting it up. Correct?

As for the news lying to sell copy? That is a given and that is why we have you around.

 

What part does Trump play in this global mess? Even your gal Rep. Omar says he's doing a good job.

 

Where did COVID-19 come from, and what country lied about it, causing this pandemic?

 

aka the Wuhan Wet Market Virus. Everybody knows it is the Chinese Virus.

 

I think that is simplistic view. Rouhani administration has nothing to do with the military, and all branches of the government have to operate under the command of the supreme leader, who would easily come into public spat with Mir Hossein Mousavi in broad daylight. So the cliche "The administration is responsible for the execution" doesn't work here.

 

ٌwhat is more dangerous than that are people that only try to find the guilty here.
You have bestowed to the world multiple problems yourself, so shut up Americans.

 

This report, which I mentioned, gives the correct sense of what is going on this issue. And one of the reasons FARS news agency (close to the revolutionary guards) today published an open letter by various former health ministers addressed to Rouhani to allow more stringent measures to be taken, including banning travel and imposing quarantine.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/middleeast/coronavirus-iran-rouhani.html

 

They seriously need to drag these religious zealots out of the stone age, and lock them up in quarantine somewhere.

Touching and kissing a shrine? In the middle of a pandemic? Seriously?

 

Their population is also less than 1/3rd of ours. Have you seen what they pay in taxes? They pay 9.3% of their income through their employers as a Health Care tax AND a 19% VAT on every purchase except it's reduced to 7% on food and books. Sell your house you will pay 3% to 6% real estate transfer tax as well as a 25% capital gains tax plus 5.5% solidarity surcharge. Did I mention there is also a state level tax on the sale of property @ 3% to 6% depending where you live. So lets do the math on selling a home. For a house in Hamburg: €3,247 euros per sqm, 2000 sq ft is 185.80608 sq meters = €600,695 euros. Wow that's pretty good until you get to the taxes. €600,695 X 36.5% combined taxes = €219,253.67 euros in tax. I guess if you buy a house.....you're stuck there forever.

 

Totally the same thing.

*rolls eyes*