Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Solid post and I agree we need more information. This little bugger is going to keep a lot of researchers busy for quite some time.

Just wanted to add a bit on mutation. Time will tell, but based on what we do know, this virus shouldn’t mutate as often as common flu. Viruses with longer genomes generally mutate less than those with shorter ones. Influenza has a genome of 13,588 bases on eight separate strands. SARS-CoV-2 is 29,811 bases on a single strand. It’s believed Coronaviruses can have longer genomes and less mutations because they have the ability to proofread during replication unlike most other RNA viruses. Of course no guarantees, but it’s unlikely this will mutate as fast or faster than influenza.

 

➡ Please cite this work as Gautret et al. (2020) Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of
COVID‐19: results of an open‐label non‐randomized clinical trial. International Journal of
Antimicrobial Agents – In Press 17 March 2020 – DOI : 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949
Despite its small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is
significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its
effect is reinforced by azithromycin.

 

I think that DNA based viruses are the ones that have the ability to proofread. I don't believe it is to do with the length. Don't know if the Coronavirus is DNA or RNA based

Edit: it's RNA based. Not sure of "proofread" ability yet

 

Really interesting information. Thanks for posting.

 

Not the thread for this type of politicization.

 

This should clear things up.
https://jvi.asm.org/content/92/14/e01031-17

 

~ You are not alone ...

 

I had a lot of this laid on me in college and I deal with viruses/pneumonia/immunity daily in the animal world. I have forgotten a lot of details from college but will always verify my memory is correct before posting. I will do my best to not lead you astray.

I find endless links to research tedious so don’t usually list a bunch. But I’m happy to lead you to the “science” if you ask.

 

Thank you for the citation.

It appears that the drug combination can be helpful, except for:
-people with pre-existing heart conditions. In their case, it will likely kill
-people who are allergic to penicillin, since Azithromycin is penicillin based. (I am allergic to penicillin)

 

Just to be absolutely clear, that stuff is not what this thread is about.

 

Which has nothing to do with the US mortality rate falling. That's good news, right?

 

Your analysis is flawed. Those that died, say by March 19 ( 208 ), were not in the group of new cases, they would be associated with the cases admitted over a week previously such as the 1695 cases of March 12th

 

I think you are missing the obvious point that the mortality rate may be a bit deceptive to point to when there is a sudden explosion of new cases whose results are not yet determined. It has been the subject of discussion on this thread as to how much we can rely on any given nation's mortality rates since there are differences between who gets tested between different nations and what counts as a "case" and what does not.

Probably the best we can take away from the mortality rate right now is that it's unstable and probably overstated a bit on the global level. By how much exactly, we won't know until this thing is over or close to over. So for now, it's probably better to look at the total number of deaths and especially the velocity of deaths for a given country (such as rapidly going up or not) to get an idea of how much of handle they have on things.

 

Spain has revised their numbers upward to 539. My god.

 

~ I think Dr. Oz mentioned this morning about patients with abnormal heart arrhythmia being stabilized with beta blockers. We will likely soon find out . ` ´

 

*378,492*​

So, at end of day, 11:45 PM on March 23rd, 2020 (GMT +0), the COVID-19 numbers:


Per nation:



And the statistical look-back to 2020-02-027:



Again, the excel table says it all. Today was the day where my worst fears were confirmed, I kept hoping this day would not come: with a sudden jump of 42,000+ cases on just one day, we are seeing an exponential curve that I personally believe can no longer be stopped, no matter what we do now. It's too late. We, as a world, missed the window of opportunity. Surely, 70% of the world's population is going to get infected (circa 5.5 billion people), it's now only a matter of 'when', not 'if'.

For you see, China is no longer in the equation. It has stopped the disease, for all intents and purposes, because it locked-down immediately and mercilessly for 2 months and limited the virus to one large province. But the virus is now flourishing in so many countries around the globe all at once, there is no way to stop it any more. People aren't locking down like China did. Even if the USA were to be able to flatten the curve this very minute (it can't and the worst is definitely yet to come), right behind the USA will be India and Russia and Turkey and Egypt and Indonesia. India is practically as populous as China and the population density is.... well.... omg....

We went from a doubling curve that (based on where I started to track the statistics) took 17 days to achieve, and then the second doubling only took 7 days; at this rate, the 3rd will take 6 days, if at all. And the next will probably only take 5 days. Within 7 days, the USA will very likely climb past both Italy and China and be the nation with the most confirmed COVID-19 cases. The trajectory is clear to see. At some point in time, the USA and other countries will stop testing, but all that means is that they have given up. COVID-19 will be everywhere in such a high 'density' that no one can escape it.

My heart is sinking all the way to my toes. Today we saw the highest mortality death rate to date: 4.36%. We saw the highest number of new deaths reported in one day: +1,882. We saw the largest raw jump in positive cases in just one day: more than +42,424. We saw the highest % growth rate of positive cases: 12.62%, and for the 6th day in a row, we had a growth rate of more than +10%, which is the most key point of all. That makes for a HUGE exponential curve. In spite of the fact that the number of recovered cases went over 100,000, the actual % of recovered cases relative to all reported cases went down to 26.85%, while the % of those who are still ill went up to 68.80%.

There are now 26 nations recording infection totals of 1,000 upward. In 1 or 2 days maximum, Ecuador (S. America), Luxembourg (Europe), Pakistan (Asia) will definitely join the thosand club, perhaps also Poland. Within one month, the list of nations with less than 1,000 reported cases will be far smaller than the list of countries with 1,000, and the list of countries with more than 25,000 will be very, very large.

Just to be crystal clear: 4.36% of 5.5 billion = 239,800,000 dead people.

I will still ask for Ad-shem to be with us, but I don't think he is listening anymore,

Stat

 

YEPP

 

Damnit. This is the scariest post ever. Is there still a hope for those who completely obey the quarantine? Like, just never ever go outside.

 

No, unfortunately not.

Think about it this way - you are comparing the number of deaths against the number of infected to get that number, right? Well, then you are assuming that there are only two outcomes - Infection or Death. To put it another way, if you are still infected with the virus, then you can still die from the virus.

The average timeline from date of infection to date of death is ~20 days.

 

Good evening.

There is really just no silver lining to pretty much any of the numbers from almost any of the hotspot nations tonight. With the sole exception of Italy, it was pretty bad across the board. Here is a view of the raw new cases as well as active case growth for all the hotspot nations tonight:



The incredible rise in the number of US cases is really alarming. Advanced warning that we would get a flood of results or no, this is a staggering growth in the sheer number of cases. Since it has been a few days since the testing ramp, I thought it would be good to show show this alongside the numbers from Spain and Germany.

As you can tell from the screenshot, the mortality rates from Germany and the US are much lower than Spain through every stage of the results, including worst US mortality vs best Spain mortality, although the absolute best US mortality rate is still lower than the worst Germany mortality rate. That is a pretty strong indication that the US is doing a better job than Spain was at actually testing for the virus when it was at a similar stage of the outbreak. And also that Germany is doing a much better job testing than either US or Spain.

Other than that, as mentioned earlier in this thread, Italy has seen two days of declining new cases 2 weeks into their lockdown. Here's hoping that trend continues and is not an anomaly. Perhaps things will start to improve there over the next couple of weeks.



Looking at the total number of new deaths per day, we can see where Iran continues to plod along at in the 125-150 range, although currently ticking down ever so slightly. Italy's death count for the past couple of days were mercifully under 800, but still higher than every other country. Everywhere else is on the rise, and fairly quickly. The mounting death tolls across the board indicates all of the nations here other than Iran appear to be at some stage behind where Italy has been, with Spain right behind it, and France / the US in relatively similar positions.

Since almost 1/2 of the total cases in the US are in New York, I think comparing where it was when the lockdown went into effect (Mar 20) to where Lombardy was at that point may give us some idea of where it will be 14 days into the lockdown. By Mar 20, New York had 47 deaths total - this compares best with Lombardy's 55 deaths as of Mar 3. After 14 days (Lombardy lockdown on Mar 8 ), Lombardy was posting its 3rd day of > 200 deaths.

So currently my hopeful scenario is that New York only experiences some 2000 deaths in the next month or so due to the virus. But those staggering and rapidly rising number of cases in New York (over 20K right now) have me very worried that is far too optimistic.

Last thing I would like to take a look at are mortality rates for countries that may be significantly under reporting their breakouts:



That I would say is proof positive that Indonesia is just lying about their cases, or has some uselessly strict measurements for determining a case. At any rate, at 49 deaths, there is just no doubt that there is a bare minimum of at least 1000 cases of the coronavirus circulating ~20 days ago, and just a hell of a lot more than 600 or so cases today. Philippines likewise appears to have enough deaths at this point it is probably past the margin of error. Iraq / Algeria / Egypt we will need to see if deaths continue to mount while cases stay low.

As always, all the stuff I am including (and a lot more) is available on my sheet here.

 

I mean, you'd have to go out to get food at some point? Or order a delivery of some kind.

The trajectory is really bad. But given that nations are closing their borders, I think you will see as nations get control of this thing (and I have to believe the lockdowns and quarantines will work - because logically that will curtail how the virus spreads), you will be able to start taking chunks of the global population "off the board" so to speak. It is something Stat is doing with China. South Korea hasn't quite stopped community spread, but appears to have it mostly controlled. Taiwan as well has been very much on top of this thing since the beginning and is only now approaching 200 cases (most of that now from individuals coming back internationally - like China).

So given that we've seen things work out in other countries, I still have to believe that measures taken here and abroad are going to start showing an impact before we start getting into those staggering death tolls globally.

 

We are going to stop this disease, or it will burn itself out, like it did in China. They did not lockdown immediately. Their first recorded case of a "novel" virus was November 17th and they didn't lockdown until January 21st, after 3 million travelers had come and gone from the Wuhan area mostly the first 3 weeks of January and headed back to the countries all over the globe where they had migrated.

The USA would be expected to surpass Italy because we have 5.5 times the population. We're the third most populous country in the world, after China and India. The U.S. also has the largest and most prominent ethnic Chinese population outside of Asia in the New York Metropolitan area.

New York's numbers are skewing the rest of the U.S. and deserves separate focus. At today's task force update, Dr. Birx said that New York has an infection rate of 1 per 1000 people which is 5 times higher than in the rest of the U.S. Then the rate in the other 49 states would average 1 in 5000. In New York City the rate of infection is 1 in 700 (higher than the rest of the state). But that's not all. New Yorker's who have been tested are running a 28% positive rate. The rest of the country is testing lower than 8% positive. New York Birx suggests that this indicates that the virus has been circulating in New York City for several weeks. New York state now accounts for 6% of global cases and is tracking very similar to Italy.

Sigh. So we have New York City with the highest population density in the country with 27,000 people per square mile, with the highest Chinese population in the country, and with only a little over 57,000 staffed hospital beds. Cuomo didn't see this coming (it's not his fault), but the lockdown is a little late for New York, I'm afraid.

The only silver lining to all that is that I think other Governors are looking at New York and shutting things down before things have escalate too much. A lot of states which have far lower population-density cities and more available hospital beds are shutting down while the numbers are still "reasonably" low. In Texas, the Governor is leaving it up to cities/counties which are shutting down quickly. Dallas, with the highest number of cases and deaths ordered shelter-in-place yesterday. Word is that my city of Austin, with the second highest number of cases but no deaths so far, is going to mandatory shelter-in-place at midnight tomorrow.

Pray for New York.

 

I think so too.

New York has tested about 78,000 people which accounts for about 25% of the tests for the entire country. Unfortunately they have an astronomically tragic number of positives in their test results.

Among the things we're doing in New York is sending most of the supply of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin there (with some going to hot spots in California and Florida). Hopefully that is the miracle cure, and it surely would be a miracle if it ends up being that simple to solve.

We also have the Navy sending a hospital ship (literally a floating hospital) to New York and the military also has available MASH type "pop-up" medical field units.

I just hope we have enough trained medical people.

 

I think concerning the US, a state by state is more important and how the states reacted.
What action they took and how they worked.
Colorado shut down all non-essential business and implemented strong guidelines about gatherings and so on.
That started at March 17th and if one looks at the graphs the infection rate has dropped drastically and the spread in the state, too.

I take this sucker very serious and have implemented and invested in very strict regulations and follow what happens in my state every day.
The swift and very harsh shut down and regulations, might have ?????? done the trick in my state.
Lets see what the end of the week brings, if it continues like that, a very good sign.

 

~ The U.S. has at least 42,663 cases across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Approximately 541 people have died, including 157 in New York, 110 in Washington state and 34 in Louisiana.
❓➡ Not sure about the math but I see estimates of 1 in 900 chance of getting the virus. I believe of those infected .013 % die...