Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

~ Yes it seems the biggest concern now is how contagious this virus is and the prolonged incubation period where a carrier can infect others. I see many masks today in Los Angeles when I went shopping.

 

POTUS Trump, is that you spouting off gut feelings as fact?

What part of exponential do you not understand? Cases are doubling every 2-3 days. Expert doctors on the front line say hospitals are filling up and we've barely gotten started.

 

In terms of 'new deaths' being reported, the biggest numbers are found in the following countries right now:

1- Italy (601) -- which shows, however, that the increase in 'new deaths' in Italy has begun to stop and, to some extent, even decline.
2- Spain (539) -- they are where Italy was last week, only worst, with higher aggregate numbers all around, rising even at a higher pace. The current hot spot for the virus overall.
3- France (186) -- very high number of new deaths and with expected exponential increasing number of deaths (until those increases taper off in response to social distancing measures which will show their effect in 2-3 weeks), you can expect the numbers for France to follow those from Spain, behind by a few days.
4- edit: the USA numbers I had picked up (132) may have been incorrect. I need to double check the issue.
5- Iran (127) -- for a week now, Iran's numbers have stopped increasing and have even begun a decline. The trend is hopeful, although the more limited nature of the 'social distancing' rules in Iran compared to Italy/Spain will likely see Iran fail to do what China and South Korea were able to do -- or what we are likely to eventually see from Italy and Spain. To truly stamp out the virus, Iran will need more serious (legally enforced) social distancing rules, but as Iran's numbers improve, the likelihood is that even the more limited measures in place will be relaxed.

The next highest numbers, in double digits, where from:

6- UK (54) -- the overall trend in the UK looks similar to the one in the US and I expect their numbers to show exponential rise until they begin to taper off much later.
7- Netherlands (34) -- proportionally, their numbers are similar to those from France and I expect their numbers to rise exponentially as well, being pretty much where the French are right now.
8- Germany (29) -- the numbers from Germany are relatively lower than those in the other countries I have mentioned here, with the Germans following more or less resembling what we saw in South Korea as compared to elsewhere. But still too early to be sure.
9- Switzerland (22) -- relative to their population, these are very high numbers, again similar to France. And I expect the same exponential rise in their numbers.
10- Belgium (13) -- same with Switzerland and the Netherlands.

 

I think it is about us, we follow and implement the guidelines. Us is the essential businesses. I spent the last 2 weeks to implement those rules and guidelines in my business. I have a responsibility, my employees for most and than to my customers.
I was shocked when I went to the Big R today. They had done nothing, business as usual, like the beach pics we all saw in Florida.
Yes I am shaming.
With this thing we have to shame. Everybody in town has taken measures, some are closed and will go down the drain, which is rather sad and some just do not give a crap.
What is wrong with them.

Please get involved

 

Not necessarily. Depends on whether you were prepared for something like this or not.

 

The masks alone don't do you any good, because you can get the virus through your eyes, as much as through mouth and nose. Ok ?
Mask alone aint going to do the trick, it only prevents spread, or rubber gloves. Rubber gloves only if you have the virus or think so, to prevent the spread. If you go to the grocery store you actually do not have to whipe down the cart handle, as long as you do not touch your face.
When you leave the store you need to whipe down or wash your hands.
Its the opposite. Its not your hands through which you can get a virus, but how you use your hands. The virus gets into you through the wet openings in your face and body.
A mouth and nose mask is not going to do the trick, because your eyes are not protected..

 

Neither the mortality percentage, nor the chance of infection probability, are correct.

 

Asinine non sequitur deflection ignored since it has nothing whatsoever to do with what I actually posted.

 

~ Actually the data was from a report on CNN

 

~ Then you tell us the correct statistic.

 

With multiple US states and both the UK and South Africa going into lockdown mode we might start to see that trend paying off within the next couple of weeks or so.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/countries-roll-out-restrictions-to-curb-coronavirus-11584954209

 

We need to continue to be diligent, but just consider this..

Globally over 1 Million people die in car accidents every year.

In the US nearly 40,000 Americans die in car accidents every year. Should we ban cars?

Should we destroy millions of lives over this? Is the fatality rate in the U.S justification for a prolonged shut down?

 

Yes, there is as long as you limit your contact with those who are outside as well.

In essence have all of your groceries and medications delivered and left outside. Then take precautions when you bring them inside and clean the outsides with a damp soaped cloth before packing them away. Use gloves while you are wiping them down.

This might sound extreme but it is a precaution that can limit your exposure and improve your chances.

 

Nothing's extreme anymore. I posted once on the pet thread that one of my cats passed away, now the other two look sick.

 

Just project some numbers. If the infection rate gets to 50% of the population (so 180 million in USA) and the mortality rate is only 1% (it is over 4% globally), that’s 1.8 million deaths. That’s a lot.

 

The jump in new cases in the US is staggering because we did not know about them although they were there the entire time. I suspect that the same can be said of the death toll. We would need to retest those who have died since the original outbreak in order to obtain a better idea of the actual rate. At present the numbers are probably under reported but we can expect that to change in the future. What that means is that we could see a rapid increase in US deaths that proportionally mirrors the rise in cases. Perhaps the only mitigating factor will be that the US healthcare system is not yet overwhelmed.

As far as under reporting goes elsewhere in the world I think that is a given. The NY Times had an article explaining that NYC is a hotspot because of the density of the population. India is one of the most densely populated nations in the world. To claim that they only have 511 cases just isn't credible given that they share a common border with China.

 

The common border doesn’t mean much. Wuhan is a long way from the border and I’m not sure how much free movement there is over the border. Himalayas are there. But I agree 511 cases isn’t credible.

 

From what I am hearing that seems to be the general intention now. The idea that the US and UK had to allow maximum infection to create 'herd immunity' would have resulted in millions of deaths in both countries. What seems to be going on now is the intention to buy time until a vaccine and other ways of protection are discovered. Here is an article about this.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

 

What I think should be done is that all people with underlying health conditions and those over a set age are quarantined for about a month and everyone else exposed to the virus and carry on their normal lives as much as they can. Some will need hospital care but majority will become immune and in a position to help those who become ill further down the line. What we are doing now is just passing the problem down the road and come winter, people with normal flu are going to need hospital care as well as those with Corona virus. A vaccine is many years away and chance of an antiviral being successful this year is low.

I've yet to see a persuasive argument that supports countries going into lockdown for the whole population

 

I am just listening to an update on the virus and the guy is pointing out that NY has now tested almost 80,000 people. It is testing around 16,000 people a day. This apparently is way above most places in the US and could account for them at the moment having the much higher numbers.

It is probably best to be aware that numbers mean different things in different places. For instance the UK number at the moment will mainly be serious cases ended up in hospital as I think they are the only ones being tested. We are intending on raising the testing though. May have started.

 

Good morning, PFers,

Today, March 24th, 2020, at the beginning of my day in Germany (09:00 AM), 08:00 GMT+1 in London, 04:00 AM on the East Coast of the USA, here the COVID-19 numbers as they developed in the last 8 hours.



By nation:



Note that I highlighted a number of new nations that go on the watch-list. The reasons for this should be obvious. Small island nations have a HUGE infection rate per 1 million people. Just insane. Countries that were on the underbelly of the former Soviet Union are all reporting cases that are % much higher than Russia itself, further proof that Russia is lying through its teeth about Covid-19, something I have mentioned here in this thread a number of times.

And the numbers, tracking back to 2020-02-027:



Not sure there is much more to say. The curve is exponential, it has been exponential since it's inception in Hubei and the curve continues unabated. We are easily going to go over 400,000 COVID-19 cases across the world today. If the past days are any guide, then by the end of this day we will add at least 12% on recorded deaths, adding at least +2,000 dead today and bringing the death total to at least 18,500 deaths, very possibly considerably more. On 2020-02-028, we added only 50 deaths over the day before. So, in less than one month's time, the sheer raw number of additional deaths per day has increased FOURTY FOLD. It's simple, undeniable math. If trends continue, then the % of recovered cases (hard to define exactly) will sink to 24% and the % of people still classified as "ill" will rise to 70%. So, it's not just the 4.3% who are dying, it's the 70% who are to some degree still ill.

I said last night - I was very, very depressed over these numbers - that the curve cannot be stopped. It cannot. The virus is now all over this planet, the person-to-multiple-other-persons chain of infections is too large, community spread is literally everywhere and the virus is now attaching itself to too many surfaces (glass, metal, plastic, paper, wood) because the sheer trillions and trillions and trillions of COVID-19 molecules (cells) being set into the air means that it lands everywhere and before it can die in 2 to 3 days, newer and more molecules are there. It's very much like a person who develops a rash on his skin with just a few small spots and doesn't worry about it. A week later, the rash has spread to his arm, but it is still small. He is still not worried. A week later, he notices the rash on his back, the rash starts to itch, he begins to worry. In the fourth week, in the middle of the night, he wakes up, itching all over, gets up, looks in the mirror and sees the rash over more than 90% of his body. This is what is happening to us right now. We are in the "itches a little on my back phase".

For those who are saying that, 'well, so and so many thousands die of flu every year" or "there are 1,000,000 car deaths every year year", I understand your argument. I also understand that your argument destroy your argument, for indeed these things happen in roughly the same amount every year. They are not exponential. This here is. That's the difference.

-Stat

 

Every single word of this posting is spot-on. I do the macro-work, you do the micro-work. But the effect is still the same.

 

Bingo.

 

That is a viable method for reducing stress!

 

The current mortality rate among confirmed cases is 4.33%. But yes, even 1% mortality is horrifying, especially since it is now prognosticated that the FIRST wave of infections (this is projected to come in three waves over 18 months) will probably infect up to 70%. 70% of 328 million = 229.6 million. 1% of that is just shy of 3 million deaths in the USA alone. So much for the common flu argument...