Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

This is so ****ing sad. The affected can't even be properly buried, but must be burned to prevent further spread of the virus.(I heard the same was being done in Italy.)

 

The first death of a person under 18 years old in the U.S. happened today in Los Angeles. The kids are not as invincible as they think.

 

Dr. Fauci says that people are fleeing New York City to Florida and Long Island. They're seeing more cases in Long Island now. Fauci is warning about "seeding" areas which are not hot spots.

 

Task Force update: U.S. still has a backlog of tests awaiting results. After today's press conference they are supposed to get an update on exactly how many tests are remaining so that they can tell us tomorrow when we could hit "equilibrium".

 

People left New York for other areas. Dr. Birx says that for all the people who fled, they should self-quarantine at home or 14 days. If you have been in New York at any time over the last few weeks, you need to stay at home.

Every time the government does a lockdown, some people panic and run somewhere else.

 

Pence is reiterating that anyone who travelled from New York to any other place in the country needs to self-quarantine and monitor for symptoms for 14 days. New York is designated as a "high risk" area.

 

Man, I'm sorry to hear that. I can only hope yourself and your own family have been taking better precautions and fair better. In the end, all we can really control is what we do ourselves and what we tell other people who are close to us.

 

~ I just talked to someone in Florida. He said it's awful there with the shutdowns and self-isolation.

 

" Both thought that COVID-19 was a joke and 10 days ago, they went out with friends to a COVID-party, where teenagers drank a lot of beer and spat on each other."

~ My friends and I always thought we did some strange things when we were young ...´

 

~ This actually does not surprise anyone who knows what Miami has become ...

 

These were kids on Spring break from other states. Miami had the bars, restaurants and beaches closed. The kids came anyway.

 

*421,069*​

So, at end of day, 11:57 PM on March 24th, 2020 (GMT +0), the COVID-19 numbers:




Per nation:




You can see that Ecuador has now joined the "thousand club". There are now 28 nations with at least 1,000 (or far more) confirmed COVID-19 cases.

And the statistical look-back to 2020-02-027:




Once again, the excel table says it all. The exponential curve continues unabated. We ended this day with only about 150 more new infections than yesterday, but with considerably more deaths all in one day: +2,307. More importantly, the confirmed COVID-19 cases growth rate is still over +10% and that is the decisive factor. And the growth rate in deaths day to day is between +12 and +14% for the last 8 days straight.

You will notice that the death %-rate relative to all officially reported COVID-19 cases has reached a high of 4.47% but when you remove all of the data from China from the picture, it is 4.57%. Either way, we are now more than 1% over the death rate from 2020-02-027 (3.41%). That becomes especially horrifying when we get into the millions of COVID cases, which is going to happen in the next months. The % of recovered cases continues to go downward, it has every single day since 2020-03-008. The % of those who are still ill therefore continues to rise. This means that we have a lot of people who are either hanging in the balance or who have not reported themselves as healed.

I will remind again that Russia is obviously lying about it's COVID statistics. Ditto for Turkey, India and Brasil, likely also Egypt. Factoring this in and realizing that a huge number of people are walking around, completely asymptomatic, like walking time-bombs, it could very well be that there are closer to 4,000,000 COVID-19 cases right now, but I am sticking with the official numbers as they stand.

In terms of national statistics, the USA posted the largest number of new cases today (+9,748), Italy reported the largest amount of deaths for the day (+743), but it should be noted that Spain revised its deaths for today up to +680.

Iceland, as a country that is not a small independent island, is now posting the highest amount of cases per 1,000,000 people. Now, that is just a theoretical value for countries with less than 1,000,000 in population, which is the case with Iceland, but with a value of 1,899 per 1 million in population, it is telling because Iceland is the only nation on earth that is offering testing to every single one of its residents. That should give us a more accurate picture of how many people, percentually, are positive for COVID-19, yet asymptomatic. So, the raw numbers for Iceland (648 cases, 60 new as of 2020-03-024, 1 dead, 1 of them today) look very small in contrast to China, the USA and much of Europe, but the meaning of the numbers is far greater than many realize.

There is another way to look at the exponality of the curve. Take a look at the excel data. The rows that are highlighted in very light peach are the rows that come the closest to the next 100,000. It took 2 months and 7 days (68 days) to get to 100,000 COVID-19 cases (2020-03-006). It then took 10 days (instead of 9 weeks) to get from 100,000 cases to roughly 200,000 cases (2020-03-017). But it only took 4 days to get to slightly over 300,000 (2020-03-021) and then only 3 days to get well over 400,000 (today: 2020-03-024). Very possibly, it will only take 2 days to get to 500,000 cases. Wait and see. Again, this is how an exponential curve looks.

So, I'm extremely tired. Stay healthy. Buone notte.

-Stat

 

This is statistically very correct and eminently logical. Thanks for the postings.

That being said, in Florida, college students from all over the country just partied up at spring break and Lord only knows how of them got infected and themselves infected an entire chain of people, likely a helluva lot of Floridians. Tracing all of this back is going to be a gargantuan task, if it is even doable. The Gov. of Florida would be well served to either cancel flights from all other states or make anyone travelling from any large city, not just NYC, go into 14 day self-quarantäne.

 

I'm really not buying that China continues to have NO new cases.

 

You mention the fact that Iceland is testing every citizen and that they have ~660 raw cases. Do you know if they have reported the percentage of those who are currently asymptomatic?

I can imagine that data only has a medium amount of value without knowing how long they have been infected or whether they will ever develop symptoms, but still might be useful to learn.

 

I think I read in an earlier announcement that almost all were either asymptotic or mild. That would make sense because about .9% test positive.
Here is the latest.
https://www.government.is/diplomati...ng-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/

 

~ I think that many of us are not buying anything China says ...

 

The absolute best news we could get out of Iceland is that a very large majority of them are asymptomatic and never develop symptoms. Because it sure doesn't look like the world is doing much to slow the spread of this virus. Fingers crossed, but not holding my breath.

 

China doesn't count asymptomatic cases.

 

It begs the question of are they still contagious?

 

Good evening. As already covered, tonight's raw numbers were bad. Spain has nearly caught up to Italy in raw terms of deaths per day. The US continues to report an alarming amount of virus going around. Here's the trends I'm seeing:



Here I've highlighted what appear to be positive trends. I could also highlight things in red that look like bad trends, but that would be everything else in this spreadsheet. While Italy did post more new cases today than yesterday, their 3 day trailing average is going down. I think it is probably better to look at averages than simply one day in isolation.

Iran continues to plod along with a very similar number of deaths per day though slightly lower than where they were 3 days ago. The increase of average new cases though is pretty worrying. If that continues, more deaths will only follow.

Since we now have a number of countries on lockdown, I thought it might give us a clearer picture of where each nation in lockdown is at their current stage. So I made a new comparison of nations by trying to just look at the new deaths reported per day vs how long they've been in lockdown. To the best of my knowledge, these hotspot nations went into lockdown on the following dates:

China - Jan 23 (Wuhan then expanded)
Italy - Mar 9 (Lombardy, then rest of nation on 10th)
Spain - Mar 14
Belgium - Mar 17 ("Lockdown Light" - whatever that is)
France - Mar 17
Germany - Mar 22 (national curfew)
UK - Mar 23

Here are the results:



As I've noted before, China's deaths did not peak until a bit over 20 days after the lockdown. I somewhat unscientifically assume that has to do with the delay from imposing a lockdown on Wuhan before expanding it out, so ~20 days is what I'm going with for now as the average amount of time for the virus to kill someone from first infection.

The US is obviously not on lockdown, so their stats represent when New York went on lockdown as it is by far the biggest cluster in the nation. It is currently at a worse stage than France when it went into lockdown, and a little better than Spain / Italy. France is doing a little better than Spain was at the time of their lockdown.

Spain we can see started their lockdown at averages of maybe 3 days or so ahead of where Italy was. But since then it has shot past the average deaths per day, posting higher totals in days 8-10 of the lockdown. Spain is very quickly becoming a worse hotspot than Italy.

Speaking of Italy, it is still a ways from 20 days into the lockdown. Judging by where they are at and where China was ~5 days before the peak, we might expect Italy's daily death count go up above 1000 for a few days before hopefully receding if the trend from China holds. At which point, Italy will almost certainly have at least 10,000 total dead, with the "down slope" still left to kill another 10,000.

Finally, let it not be lost on you how many people Lombardy is losing per day to this virus alone in comparison to what would be normal. Last year Lombardy lost 99.5K people, or around 272 people per day. Here are the last 7 days worth of deaths from just the coronavirus in Lombardy:

Mar 18 - 319
Mar 19 - 209
Mar 20 - 381
Mar 21 - 546
Mar 22 - 361
Mar 23 - 320
Mar 24 - 402

They are consistently passing the average for all other causes of death combined now 15 days into the lockdown! I am not sure how much higher the numbers would be 20 days from now if Italy was not in lockdown, but I'm willing to bet it would have us wishing to see things just in the 100's again.

Please do not let people fool you with crap like "x many people die per year worldwide". We should always be willing to delve into the numbers to get an idea of what an appropriate comparison would be by using similar time horizons and population sizes.

 

Not to be a Conspiracy theorist, but can you imagine if China had actually purposely planned unleashing this Virus. I've heard all the theories about the Level 4 Bio Lab in Wuhan, but what if this Trade and Tariff War we've been having with China caused them finally set into motion something they had been planning for Years if they felt their Economic Power in the World was in Jeopardy. While the rest of the World was not suspecting anything, China even though they knew thousands of their Citizens would Die, could have been secretly getting their Country prepared for this Outbreak and knew what kind of measures they needed to take in order to stop the spread in their Country relatively quickly, while the United States and every other Industrialized Nation were taken by surprise and their Economies collapsed and Millions Died. China has a history of Human atrocities and has absolutely no problem sacrificing People for the betterment of their Country and Power, so it wouldn't surprise me if they looked upon this Trade War as a threat and did this. Sounds crazy, but how in the Hell did a Country like China with a Billion people contain this so quickly, while were rapidly going to pass them in the number of infected, makes you wonder why they were so secretive and wouldn't let anyone in their country to find out what the Hell was going on, No Human to Human spread my Ass, they've Killed thousands of People by not being forthcoming. I guess this is the Cost of Freedom. China is probably waiting to Invade us when the entire United States is on a Respirator.

 

It is highly unlikely that either of them will die though they may live with compromised lungs giving them a lower quality of life. Are you not from Germany? Seems you have the best medical services or some other reason for keeping your death rate so low. I think they probably will get away with it this time and I would imagine will learn an important lesson.

 

While it is unlikely for a healthy person to actually die from the virus if they are getting proper treatment, the likelihood isn't merely a factor you can determine in the way the present statistics are done. Young, healthy, people can die from the virus if they exposed to a significant level of the virus, as opposed to the lower levels which still can give a positive result showing someone is exposed to the virus. Besides that, while among those who get seriously ill from the virus (and they include a lot of healthy people), those with compromised immune systems are certainly at a hugely disproportionate risk of ending up dying, the fatality rate even for healthy people (who have fallen ill with serious symptoms from the virus) is much higher than what you find if you look merely at mortality rates for healthy younger adults contracting the virus (but who aren't necessarily as symptomatic).

There has been, across the board, a terrible job of reporting cases based on the severity of the symptoms. For the longest time, before I stopped tracking those numbers, Germany and the US were both reporting 0% critical/severe cases and yet more deaths than people actually listed as being seriously ill. Almost as though people with 'mild symptoms' were dying the next day. I think those stats are no longer as way off as they used to be, but they are still poor. But the importance of properly reporting those numbers is this: in a place like Holland, last week, you had up to half of the people in ICU young, otherwise previously healthy, adults and even kids. True, being otherwise healthy gives these people a much better shot of fighting off death than older people with compromised immune systems, but one of the biggest failures in the way the Coronavirus issue has been handled is giving younger, healthy, adults a sense that this virus only kills the sick and the elderly. And that young people are largely immune from it. That is a lie. Young people are much less likely to end up dying as long as we still have enough hospital beds, ventilators, ICU units etc, to give them proper care. But if the epidemic reaches the point where the proper treatment required for those who are seriously ill from it has to be rationed, and then denied even to younger people (already, in some places such as Spain and Italy, it is effectively often being denied to the elderly), you will see a huge rise in the number of young people dying too.