Any updates on the Virus spread in Western Europe

Sadly I spoke too soon. They had their highest number of deaths today 743 and I think their highest number of new cases too 6820. Hopefully it will pass soon.

Meanwhile the UK is getting started and I can see things are pretty heavy in France too.

 

It looks like they may have revised the new cases to 5199 (this has happened before). If so they are still on a decreasing number of new cases, now for three days. The increasing deaths in such a scenario would be ones probably sick for a long time. I do hope Italy is getting through this now.

 

It isn't. I used to work there, and friends ask me not to call.

They are dumbfounded by the manslaughter ...

 

Yes, I know it is dreadful. They have been choosing who to save and who is to be left to die - as the UK is intending and the army is needed to remove bodies because there is nowhere to put them...hell.

I don't know just how strong their lockdown is but I think it is very strong. If that is so they must start to see deaths and cases coming down soon. People get infected between 2-14 days after infection in general - 5 days most common. After that from what I have heard they take on average ten days to get so ill they want to go to hospital. After that it can take several weeks for them to get well or die. If the isolation is good, they have to have the numbers coming down soon, do they not?[/QUOTE]

 

WORLDOMETER

Once again, I point to China for the best clues. Yes, it has taken China a while to master the death-rate by moving into a phase of non-entrapment by the disease. But let's take a close look at the timeline.

The young doctor who first rang the alarm-bells himself died at the end of December. He must have contracted the disease when it first started because he was seeing COV-19 patients in the hospital where he worked. So, assuming he caught the disease in mid-December and there were no additional infections in, say, mid-march - then the timeline seems to be at least four months. If its mid-April, then that adds a month to the illnesses timeline.

Where's the data? I suggest here: "worldometer COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC"

To see the daily trend of COVID deaths look into the worldmeter site above and scroll down to Latest Update which changes daily with the last reported data by country. If a country is reporting sizeable death-rates, it means that COV-19 is still vividly alive and killing in that country. (The recorded "history of deaths" will not likely become official until "new-illnesses" are daily corroborated as "zero" for each country listed.)

To get to the above daily report of country deaths you will have scrolled beyond the compiled history of deaths, titled "Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country". Note that the ranking is NOT in alphabetical order but by Confirmed Cases reported.

When the New Deaths column (in red) aggregate-number reaches zero, the onslaught will be over on a worldwide basis.

And not before ...

 

I am talking about peak. That happened a long time ago in China. I can't remember how long they have had strict lockdown in Italy. However in the regions where they have it they ought to have their peak at somewhere between 2-3 or maybe 4 weeks after lockdown. After the peak they will still have more people getting ill and dying but it will gradually get less and less. I believe that China managed to get an RO of 0.32 with most things calm in around 7 weeks. Italy should be getting its peak soon, any day if it does not already have it.

and it looks like they may indeed have had it - a day or two before I noticed

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

fingers crossed.

 

Let's hope this is Spain reaching its peak. It is at 6,673 new cases today. That is down from 7457 yesterday

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/