Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

She explained yesterday that the doomsday models are assuming that the US is doing nothing to combat corona. That is an absurd assumption. She is angry about that and complains that the media is being irresponsible for spreading the demonstrably false doomsday scenario.

 

But no shut down?

 

*529,057*​

So, at end of day, 11:54 PM on March 26th, 2020 (GMT +1), the COVID-19 numbers:



By nation (just the top 30 or so):



And a statistical look-back to 2020-02-027:



I am extremely tired, so I am keeping this short. And as indicated yesterday, I am now doing this at midnight GMT +1 (Germany) from now on instead of midnight GMT +0 (England)

You can see the results for yourself. Exactly as predicted this morning, we blew way past one-half-million COVID-19 cases. At 529,057 cases, we added slightly more than +60,000 cases in one day, a growth rate of almost +13%. 2,787 people died today, bringing the grand total to 23,967, which is a 4.53% death rate. The % of recovered cases continues to sink, now just over 23%.

The USA now leads all nations of the world in the number of cases (83,144), also in the number of new cases in just one day (+14,933). None of this is something to be proud of. All of it is something to be terrified about. COVID-19 is literally everwhere.

Not only is the curve exponential, it is actually accelerating. From 02/27 to 03/13, it took 14.5 days to add circa +60,000 cases to the grand total. Today, we achieved that in just one day. Soon, we will be seeing numbers like adding 100,000 in just one day, or in just 6 hours.

Good night.

-Stat

 

No need. Follow the Corona guidelines and you are OK.

 

And yet you espouse it as if it were fact. That is an argument from authority, one which the data does not back up yet.

Yes they have: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...-in-patients-needing-hospitalization/2336641/

This somehow changes who is susceptible to being infected? Or the mechanism by which people become infected? Or the 2-14 day incubation period for the virus? We know that Italy did not change how they tested people for infection in this time frame. We know that the the new cases per day went up and might have peaked some 13 days into the lockdown. But given they are still posting 6K+ cases, it is not clear if they have turned the curve, or will simply go up again.

New York is 6 days into their lockdown. The observation that they are putting out about 5000 new cases a day for a few days in a row and thus have become linear is premature to say they are nearing turning the curve. And given their recent change to only test for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients, may be difficult to compare accurately.

The deaths, which are a hell of a lot harder to change reporting mechanisms than who to test for COVID-19, is what you should really be paying attention to. Those most certainly do not appear to have peaked yet.

 

That’s because they are testing more. And the case rate is leveling of in NY.

 

Just about every city and county shut down independently. Abbott isn't an authoritarian. He put out a state-wide recommendations before most other states made a move. He let cities mayors and county judges make the call on making "shelter in place" official and decide on how strictly to enforce restrictions. Austin shut down at midnight yesterday. You probably couldn't find many Texas counties which have not put some sort of restrictions in place.

 

The case rate in NY is now linear (for the last threes days) which indicates that they are nearing inflection.

85% of Italian mortality are 70+ with preconditions. There socialized medicine system has collapsed.

 

She is saying that the models predicting millions or hundreds of millions of deaths are not happening. Nothing close to that is shaping up.

She did not however complain about the media being irresponsible. At least not that I heard. That's not her style. She is very professional and sticks with giving updates on what she sees without blaming anyone.

 

We almost need to reset the us numbers to today.
The number of tests has also been rising.
Deaths are the only good measure but have a big lag.

 

The latest developments here in the US, isn't just that New York has become ground zero for this infectious disaster, but the New Yorkers in their typical selfish behavior, have started to migrate to other States. Hence requiring the 15-day self quarantines from Florida and Texas and frankly every State should follow suit.

 

I read that into what she said and how she said it. I believe she stated that spreading the doomsday projections was a disservice. You are right, she is incredibly knowledgeable and competent but not confrontational.

 

This part of the process is so confusing to me. My little salon that has six chairs was required to shut down, but planes, commuter buses and trains are still operating.

 

The US is using "socialized medicine system" to try and control this virus. Private medical care has failed miserably in a crisis

 

Since there are questions about what Dr. Birx said or didn't say today about the models not matching reality, I'm attaching a replay of today's task force video.

Skip to minute 51:00 to minute 55:00 for Dr. Birx talking about the difference between the models and what is actually happening on the ground (a 1 in 1000 attack rate).

 

And from day before, Dr. Birx talking about a three day flat trend in New York which she found encouraging. (The next 24-hours after she said this, there was a one-day small spike in the New York City numbers.)

Dr. Birx starts talking about test cases per day starts at 1:48:43

 

Because you can't keep a 6 ft. "social distance" between you and a client if you're cutting their hair. They are running transit for people who are considered essential and that is their only way to get to and from work.

Who is "essential" and who isn't is confusing though. My city and county made the "shelter in place" press conference on Tuesday, effective at midnight but did not post the ordinance details until much later in the evening. I didn't know until fairly late Tuesday evening if I was supposed to go to work Wednesday morning. (And to complicate things, I work 3 towns over in a different county. That county simultaneously went "shelter in place" at midnight.)

Anyway, the county where I work finally posted the Official Ordinance on their web page and had two full single-spaced pages of detail on which businesses/industries are essential. I went to work, and noticed only about a 25-30% decrease in traffic....and had to stop at the rail crossing for the always-empty light rail train that starts and ends at no place anyone actually goes.

During Gov. Abbott's update yesterday, he commented that he was a bit discouraged to see how many cars were out on the roads.

 

Yes. Very. New Yorkers are fleeing their hot spot state to my state, Florida, in droves. I can't imagine every one of them had a need other than, "get me out of here!!!"

 

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That’s absurd.

 

That has happened in every country (or U.S. state) that instituted an official shut down with a high incident of positive cases. Lots of people panic and flee. As long as things were voluntary, people weren't trying to "escape"....but also weren't "volunteering" to do their part and stay home as much as possible. Especially the spring break kids. Now it sounds like the adults who have New York summer homes and are usually Florida's winter birds with second homes there (or in Texas).

 

We call New Yorkers, snowbirds. They come down around Thanksgiving and leave around Easter. They don't come down for the summer. They are absolutely fleeing.

 

Yes, thanks. I just edited my post to reflect that, but couldn't remember the word "snowbirds".....and called them "winter birds".

 

Yeah. Our governor is requiring them to self quarantine for 14 days, but he never explained how they are supposed to make that happen. The people flying down at this time of year don't have Florida homes, hotels can't take reservations, and he told them they shouldn't stay with family who live here. I haven't gotten an answer to that, yet. It seems he gave them an impossible task.

Our governor is not doing the best job on this. Since he took office, I've generally been a fan, so I'm disappointed.

 

Where can I find state level trend lines?