Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Let's look at the different manner in which countries undergo the COV-19 evolutionary onslaught (as shown in the NYT chart here.)

Note how the two far-east countries (Japan and South Korea) track the expansion in deaths in an identical fashion that is the lowest of countries.

And yet China is extremely broad geography-wise, much more so than dense Japan. But the cities are also densely populated as in Japan. Ditto South Korea. thus tracking the deaths in a significantly different and higher manner. It would seem to me that all three countries should track similarly.

It must be that the density of the population in terms of lifestyles and where/how they live must be similar if both countries track deaths similarly. And yet, the same can be said of Europe - which is nonetheless very different in its development of CO-19 illnesses as shown by their curvature upward to higher death-rates.

It thus seems strange to me the significantly different manners in which the countries evolve their death-rates. That is Japan/South Kores vs China ...

 

He also wrote that many of the dead were not swabbed afterward for Corona, even if they were showing all the signs. So, likely these catastrophic numbers are a combination of both. Since I love statistics and want the numbers to be accurate, I can certainly understand that someone would not automatically list a death-case as COVID-19 without written evidence, but at the same time, when the empiric evidence is overwhelming.... and this kind of statistical outlier is so glaring....

 

That being said, the one death rate that will matter is eminently simple and also basic math: the exact number of deaths divided by the exact number of officially verified cases. THAT'S the number that tells the story. Right now:



The overall death rate world-wide stands currently at: 4.54%. Yes, that is an all-time high for the tracking of this disease.

 

Two points resulting in the same conclusion.

Point #1: The US is much earlier in their response to the virus than SK.


Point #2: The US has exponentially more active cases than SK. Those people can still die from the virus.

Conclusion: Thus, comparing mortality rates is inappropriate.

 

I think one factor that you are forgetting is that Japan and South Korea had the benefit of knowledge that came from watching China deal with a novel virus.

China, being the first country to experience the virus, literally had no idea about the contagiousness or lethality of the virus for several weeks (months?). Japan and South Korea could implement testing and other control factors much more decisively because they did have that information.

 

BINGO

 

Where I live, southern England, I would estimate the drop in traffic and pedestrians to be around 99%. We are finally taking it seriously. I think the seriousness was definitely driven home when yesterday at 8pm hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people around the country simultaneously opened their door or balconies and applauded the nurses, doctors and ancillary staff for their dedication to their job. It was very moving

 

Where was South Korea at the same time as the US ??

New York where half the cases are is not exponential anymore.

 

Famous last words.

 

It wasn't meant to be an argument.

 

the COVID tracking project has put together a truly good website for tracking the stats in all 50 states, DC and the territories, with twitter links to the respective Departments of Health.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

It's also "lightweight" in terms of no extra schnickschnack.

There are workers updating the site literally every minute.

 

I guess Sweden is doomed.

 

If there are some other nations trying to implement similar strategies to those of Japan and SK, as opposed to those that are not, it would be interesting to compare the two sets of results. The question is which nations are those, if any, and how successful are they at enforcing that control.

For instance is it fair to say that Germany has a better controlled implementation than Italy and Spain or are there other factors that need to be considered?

 

That's the raw case comparison starting on the day at which they hit 1000 cases. Here's the Case Per Millions of Population.

 

And curiously both nations are at the same mortality rate today.

 

Germans themselves are surprised yet unbelievably grateful that the death numbers here are so incredibly low. And in Germany, there really is a good health care system. That being said, there has always been great respect between the German and the Italian health care systems. One of my clients is a young brain surgeon, who, upon returning from his winter ski-vacation in Switzerland last month, went into mandatory self-quarantine and also tested positive for COVID-19. That was 2 weeks ago. Next week, he will be back to work, as all of his symptoms have disappeared completely. We talked this morning on the telephone as I was in the waiting room at the vet's office (my pooch had a problem that needed looking into) and he told me that German doctors are totally baffled about the high death count in Italy, that they know how damned good so many Italian doctors are, nurses and EMTs as well. It real simple: something (or many someones) inadvertantly caused a mass-seeding of this virus through Lombardy and Piemont and the HCS was simply overrun as by a tsunami. And exactly that may be the scenario that is awaiting the USA in the next 2 weeks or so.

 

Wutt??

 

The slope according to Dr. Birx is linear based on the last few days although it kicked up a bit yesterday.

 

Pretty easily to check daily. Texas has numerous counties with no reported cases where the population is sparse. It's the urban cities which are getting hit.

 

Holy moly, the number of COVID-19 cases in Missouri jumped more than five-fold in 5 days time, from 90 to 502 cases.
Also, 58% of all tests that were given end up being positive.

HOLY MOLY



https://covidtracking.com/data/state/missouri/#history

 

Ah, yes, I discussed this with someone else this morning.

Only, it's not true. The slope is not linear. It was and still is exponential. The slight variations are part of the normal sinus-curve that you can also see within an exponential trajectory.

Facts. Facts. Facts.

 

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has now joined Boris in isolation with a 'mild' does of the virus.

 

It has gotten so bad in New Jersey, a site has been erected just to test first responders for COVID-19, which is an eminently good idea - it helps to quickly know who can keep working to save lives and who must go home.

But on a sad front, 11% of firemen in NYC have called in sick today.

 

That's not what he and I were talking about. We were talking about the likelihood of asymptomatic people (who, of course are mostly not being tested, nöööö) also living and working in rural areas. So, for the purposes of that discussion, although the map is cool, it's not relevant in this way.

 

You are suggesting that Dr. Birx is not being truthful ??? The case data for NYC shows a constant increase of ~ 2400 followed by a day of ~ 4000 followed by a day of ~ 3000.