Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Ugh. Part of why I haven't been venturing to many other threads lately. Some people are just incapable of comparing appropriate time horizons and data sets. I actually did compare to the H1N1 outbreak in another thread: http://www.politicalforum.com/index...erses-covid-19.569386/page-10#post-1071545474

Just based on the official numbers we had back then, there is no comparison. Far more people have died far faster. And given that the CDC estimated ~60.8M US infections and 12.5K deaths of H1N1 over the course of a year, even using inappropriate time horizons is not going to work after this month.

 

Thank you. Great post. I've bookmarked it and will post it as often as I can.

 

Some very disappointing numbers from the US. Given that they have consistently revised the numbers substantially higher even after my ~11pm EST post each night for the past couple of nights, I unfortunately do not trust them to stay at this level:


NY alone has 505 deaths for the day. That puts them on par with France, unless they revise things higher (again).

Note that this total is also above the range for today on the site that has been mentioned earlier as a model that predicts total deaths: https://covid19.healthdata.org/

So probably tomorrow they will revise it upward again.

 

I've noticed when glancing at the list of countries that there is an absence of African countries ,have they been able to dodge this bullet so far?

 

I'm thinking that many countries are under reporting. Many. Some of the numbers are ridiculously hard to believe, when compared to others.

 

I think there's something to the theory that Trump and Pence should not both be up there each day (most days). To risk the president and vice president infecting each other at the same time seems overly dangerous for the minimal amount of value provided by both being there at the same time.

 

Eventually, Americans will come together as one nation, we always do, this is just taking a bit longer. We will unite, we are the United States.

 

Agree 100%. I'm not sure why the Secret Service isn't intervening. They have the power to say, "Dudes, seriously? That's the worst thing you can do."

 

Did you know that Seoul has a population of 38 million people and that is why per capita, South Korea is beating the USA in testing.

 

Looks like Australia has it on the run. What did you do?

 

I think they are just getting started. The spread from China went to Europe and the U.S. first. People travel to 1st world countries far more than to 2nd or 3rd world countries. Population density, migration and tourism impacted western industrialized countries first. That's my first guess. My 2nd is that many of the African states are possibly not doing any testing and have inadequate health services, so they are unlikely to be reporting cases with much accuracy. If they aren't testing much then they haven't much to report. Egypt is one country which is a popular tourist destination and they aren't showing large numbers, so I would guess they are underreporting.

The shorter answer: Your guess is as good as mine.

 

The WHO is telling African states that if they don't ramp up response in two weeks, they will not be able to manage the virus. That was last week.

http://whotogo-whoafroccmaster.news...l3t139dy48iiujdam4?email=true&a=11&p=56714417

 

I like the Colorado data.

https://covid19.colorado.gov/case-data

 

It is interesting that some of the governments around the world finally supply people with things like water so they can save the impoverished from death by virus. No water before, or probably after, but this is a crisis.

South Africa working on "lock down" methods...and getting water to the poor....

They are going "extreme" lockdown.

 

Did not stuff around. Virtual lockdown across the whole country.

 

It has an elevation of 38m. Do you reckon the White House is looking to replace some staffer? KerryAnn perhaps?

 

One thing you have to understand about Europe, Eastern is a family vacation.
Companies will split their employee vacation schedule between employees with children and no children, because of the schools.
Ischgil in Austria, became the major hot spot for the spread of the virus in Europe, same for northern Italy. They are the pre Eastern vacation party spots. They are rather wild and pact, one person infected hundreds of the partying vacationers in just one bar, which than traveled to the Vienna airport, infecting others, got on the plane, infecting others and spread the virus all over Europe.
A religious festival in Elsas Lothringen, East France, spread the virus all over Europe and beyond, one or several persons having had a skiing vacation in Austria and Northern Italy. There is a criminal investigation in Austria. People in charge might have covered up.

The virus hit those skiing areas in the inbetween season. If that would have happened during the final winter main season, Eastern vacation, were millions are on the road to the vacation spots, all over the world. Those vacations last 2 to three weeks, payed vacations.
I think Europe got lucky and the world, too.

Africa, all I can say oooooh shiiiiiiiiiit. India, ohhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiit, Bangladesh, oooooooooohhhhhhhhhh shiiiiit, Pakistan, ooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.
Wipe outs, simple as that.
The figures we will see in those regions will scramble our minds.

 

What's happening in India is horrid. People are literally building tree shelters to get away from all the people. I know the claim is that the caste system is gone, but those formerly called "untouchables," don't seem to have a chance.

Louisiana is having the same problem. Mardi Gras. This is going to be a wild ride once it really starts ramping up. To think we are still relatively early is mind blowing.

 

tree shelters? holy crap.

I guess I wont complain about being cooped up in my house any more today.

 

Good evening. Top line numbers in the hotest hotspot nations continue to slow, and it's reflected in the new case %'s quite well in a number of them:



Italy and Spain are mercifully in the single digit % growths, and Italy even below 5%. So that should eventually start to release the pressure on hospitals once it starts showing up in a decline of active cases. Also Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, and Switzerland all in the single digit % new cases. Iran has stopped increasing their new case %'s for the moment - you can see at the top where it was in danger of going back over 10%, but has come down recently. Hopefully that will also be reflected in terms of new case #'s at some point.

The US now not only surpassed 200K total cases, but also that figure in active cases. Those numbers continue to rise very quickly, and are unfortunately now showing up in higher daily death totals than any other nation. That is probably going to remain the case for the near future. As a reminder, back when I ran the numbers and compared how many deaths Spain was putting out per capita back when they were hitting the 800's, it was an equivalent over 5000 in the US. Ideally the US will not hit those kinds of numbers, but considering how things have accelerated so quickly, it worries me greatly that we may yet see something of that magnitude.

Other than that, Spain has hit a new record in daily death, although somewhat offset from having below 800 the previous. The UK is also experiencing an alarming growth in deaths. From the 200's only 3 days ago, all the way to over 550. Pretty much every nation is clearly rising in deaths per day, except potentially Italy which may have peaked Mar 27 - 28.

Lastly, since it is such a huge part of why the US total deaths have accelerated, I would like to take a moment to address New York again:



While new cases continue to increase in New York, the share of those cases that NYC makes up continues to go down (though it is still a very large share). Likewise, NYC cases appear to still be moving up on average, but not very quickly. Today is the first day their trailing 3D average was above 4K, although they spent quite a long time in the 3K range.

Very alarmingly, NY total deaths have rocketed up very quickly. From 210 only 8 days ago, to now over 2000. A 10 fold increase in little over a week. Bear in mind that New York announced a their stay at home orders on Mar 20, and went into effect Mar 22 (8pm). Michigan's stay at home orders came in Mar 24, after only 15 deaths. New Jersey's went into effect Mar 21 (9pm), after only 16 deaths.

Also of note, but not pictured - New York death totals continue to take up an outsized portion of the total US deaths. Currently NY is at 43.5% of the total US deaths. But given the state is taking up fewer of the total case %, that is unlikely to maintain over a longer stretch of time.

One more thing I would like to point out since I did this with Lombardy earlier when analyzing Italy's data. I looked up the most recent New York state mortality rates I could find, which turned out to be 2017. Looking up total deaths (155K) and dividing by total days in a year, this comes out to 425. So as of today, New York deaths have surpassed their daily average for all other causes combined purely from COVID-19 deaths. That is 10 days into the stay at home orders. The question is, how much worse will it get?

As always, you can find this stuff I'm tracking and more on my sheet here.

 

Yes, spot on! Mass testing keep the infected "off the streets" so they do not infect others. It is an absolute must.

Duhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ...

 

IS IT NOT ABOUT THE RATE OF CONTAGION SPECIFIC TO EACH COUNTRY?

Depends upon what numbers you are looking at, doesn't it.

Try these here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

NOTE PARTICULARLY THE SECOND GRAPHIC TITLED : "Daily growth rate of coronavirus deaths"

You will note on this tracking-graphic that the US is "growing deaths" at a rate still higher than either Spain, France or Italy - and about the same rate as the UK (which also got its ass-in-gear too late).

But the overall rate is leveling - higher than most other countries nonetheless ...

Thus: Ask yourself how that may be happening. And I can think of only one reason. The tracking-system in the US is not yet sufficiently precise. Otoh, that of the UK is from a National Healthcare System so it is quite likely more correct.
And so: Or could it be that the US population is far less dense than in Europe? (Which makes contagion far more difficult.)

 

The coronavirus is killing more and more old people living in nursing homes, it's like throwing a torch into a barn. In Germany we have 850,000 people living in nursing homes.

 

Good morning, PFers,

At the end of day yesterday, April 1st, 2020 (GMT +2, Germany), there were 930,639 COVID-19 cases and a total, sadly, of 46,774 deaths.

This morning at circa 09:00, GMT +2, the current numbers:





Two things:

you will notice that I am still including the statistics without China in a special row up at the very top of the table, but in reality, with 81,554 cases and 3,312 deaths, China is now only 8.7% of the entire world's cases and only 7.0% of all deaths, which means that China's COVID statistics barely play a role in the development of the virus throughout the rest of the world. Two months ago, on February 2nd, 2020, China was far more than 90% of all cases.Today will be the last day that I compare the EOD stats with China. Afterward, I will delete that category, for it is now statistically insignificant.

Last night I wrote that we will very, very likely hit or go over the 1,000,000 mark today. Surely this is going to happen by the end of my day here in Germany. We ended the day yesterday 69,361 cases away from the million mark and both yesterday and the day before 76,600+ and 72,100+ new cases respectively. The likelyhood that we come in with less than 75,000 cases is very, very small. The likelihood that we at least match or surpass +76,600 cases is extremely high.

Today is going to be, sadly, "Million day". And surely we are going to hit the 50,000 mark in deaths.

Worldmeters has indicated that the Coronavirus is now in 203 countries and territories and also on board 2 international conveyances. Instead of screenshotting the individual nation statistics, HERE the link directly to such.

The curve is every so slightly flattened, but it is still exponential. That is a huge problem.

Stay healthy, stay safe!

-Stat

 

I could write a couple of snappy "Weißheiten" in German right now....