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Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So you are claiming that the CDC numbers are wrong based on some assumptions you have made ??
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3626
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  2. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Before I read your last paragraph, I was thinking that it's primarily because the U.S. doesn't have enough data behind us yet. The equation should work once there is a large enough data set.
     
    LoneStarGal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3627
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  3. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If the flu is such a non problem in the UK why did the NHS provide 25,000,000 free flu shots in 2019 ???
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3628
  4. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Great Minds and All that Jazz.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3629
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  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    ...because they'd like to keep it that way?
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3630
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  6. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LoneStarGal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3631
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  7. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In the US ~ 170,000,000 flu shots were given. Our CDC states 80,000 deaths due to the flu. And the NHS claims deaths in the hundreds ???
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3632
  8. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    That is a smart approach since SK used their AI technology to come up with a test for the virus in double quick time.

    Anything that gets us to a vaccine sooner rather than later is going to save lives.
     
    Derideo_Te, Apr 7, 2020
    #3633
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  9. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is work now starting using blood plasma from virus survivors. The Mayor of Miami is one of the first donors. This could be one of many bridge treatments that could be utilized until the vaccine(s) are developed and tested.

    Investors are now seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3634
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  10. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This type of technological advance could potentially make vaccines obsolete. If they can inject synthetic antibodies which work, that eliminates the need for your body to make it's own antibodies. Those antibodies could last for years, so people might only want to get a pin-prick antibody test once a year to ensure they are still protected.

    A lot of good may come of this evil virus in the form of rapid discoveries of new technologies to fight disease.
     
    LoneStarGal, Apr 7, 2020
    #3635
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  11. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    My calculations are showing how fast it is spreading across the USA and how fast it is killing off the USA. I didn't calculate a mortality rate (as in, how many people who have gotten the virus have died from it), as that rate is unknowable for a flu virus as mild as COVID-19.

    My calculation shows how fast it is spreading across the USA. Of course, different areas within the USA might be seeing different infection rates than other areas. Those would be different calculations.

    No, I'm just doing a different calculation. My calculation is showing how fast the virus is wiping out the USA population. A mortality rate (as in, how many people who contract the virus die from it) is unknowable because this flu virus is quite mild compared to other flu viruses.

    VERY inflated number... Most all of the "active cases" are people in stable condition. Additionally, "corona death" is not being defined uniformly, so that is also causing an over-reporting of deaths.

    See above.

    randU Fallacy. randU numbers are not data.

    randU Fallacy. randU numbers are not data.

    randU Fallacy. randU numbers are not data.

    Nope, that is yourself. Inversion Fallacy.

    randU Fallacy. randU numbers are not data.

    The problem with attempting to come up with a mortality rate, as you wish to come up with, is that the numerator (# of deaths) is defined multiple ways (so it's not being consistently applied by everyone and can't be directly compared as if they were indeed defined in the same manner) and the denominator (# of total cases) is unknown, since not everyone gets tested on a regular basis and not everyone goes to a clinic for treatment (in other words, not everyone is being counted). That makes for rather meaningless numbers...
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3636
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  12. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    COVID-19 IS a flu. It is a variant of SARS, which is also a flu.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3637
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  13. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Why? COVID-19 IS a flu.

    They die from treating other flus as well. It's part of the job.

    Yes, there are a lot of emotions involved, as with most anything.

    To call COVID-19 a flu is not nonsense. It's just speaking the truth.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3638
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  14. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    They are? Please explain how you arrived at your conclusions. Usually a rate involves some metric of time, not a %. But maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.
     
    AKS, Apr 7, 2020
    #3639
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  15. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    I believe it is related to the common cold.
     
    Paul7, Apr 7, 2020
    #3640
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  16. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    They do? At what rate?
     
    AKS, Apr 7, 2020
    #3641
  17. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    # of deaths per day divided by USA population. This is showing how fast the virus is wiping out the USA population.

    It is not a mortality rate concerning how many people who have contracted the virus are dying from contracting it because that rate is unknowable (even assuming that the numerator is accurate) since the denominator (# of total cases) is unknown.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3642
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  18. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Shutting down schools saves lives. I think we all understand enough about the spread of the new coronavirus to grasp the consequence of putting 30 students in a classroom all day and then sending them home, especially when many children are largely asymptomatic throughout the course of the illness.

    I know some on the liberal side are lauding Cuomo for his daily press briefings, but they might ask themselves why the governor didn't shut down the schools if DeBlasio wouldn't.
     
    LangleyMan, Apr 7, 2020
    #3643
  19. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    You think this supports your hypothesis? LMAO!!!
    Since the # of deaths per day is increasing yet the USA population metric is static, the value of your calculation must be increasing over time. Tell, Dr, what does that function look like?
     
    AKS, Apr 7, 2020
    #3644
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  20. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    It is not killing any more people than the common flu kills.

    I'm saying that I am not taking any additional preventative action beyond what I would do for the common flu.

    A steady decline in # of confirmed cases.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 7, 2020
    #3645
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  21. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    They ignored the data and we didn't?
     
    LangleyMan, Apr 7, 2020
    #3646
  22. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes. Population is the only known denominator. Using the population is a consistent way of showing the daily increase. Of course within one country the number of deaths can be used directly. Comparisons between countries are consistent if population is the denominator.
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3647
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  23. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
    AKS, Apr 7, 2020
    #3648
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  24. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The number of deaths is now increasing but will level off and then begin to decrease.
     
    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3649
  25. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    AFM, Apr 7, 2020
    #3650
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