Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

How can you conclude that if you don’t know what the precautions are ??? Washing hands, avoiding touching the face, covering sneezes, are all effective.

 

I don't think the evidence is on your side.

So, then, you aren't social distancing?

 

And covid-19 has killed more than 1000 in the US over the last 6 days in a row.

 

Can you find a single recognized expert that defines mortality or infection rate the way that you have done?

 

It's more contagious.

 

The benefit of using the population is to normalize the data across different regions that have varying population sizes.

 

It is also more lethal on a per infection basis.

 

World o meters lists that statistic daily. Population is the only known denominator.

 

We do not currently know that.

 

How do you define flu?

 

Exactly. And countries are regions.

 

They are not displaying the infection rate or the mortaliaty rate with that statistic. They are merely normalizing the data so that you know how large is the confirmed infection and mortality once you have taken into account population size.

 

Again, we are speaking past each other. I agree with you that accounting for population size is useful for comparing between regions and countries.

But you do not divide the number of cases or the number of mortalities by the population in order to decide the infection rate or the mortality rate.

 

There are lots of metrics available but I haven't seen any that support the hypotheses that cv19 is less lethal than flu. Maybe you can link to one.

 

Yes, we do. There is a veritable mountain of data to support the notion that this virus is more lethal than the seasonal flu.

 

Well, 39 days since our first US death, we exceeded the H1N1 numbers that the naysayers have been prattling on about. 12,230 and still climbing exponentially. Over 1,000 deaths per day since April 1. We're already at 1,300 today with plenty more reporting hours. On April 16, IHME predicts our max deaths/day from this. They predict 3,130 US deaths on that day. Yikes.

I hope the "It's not as bad as H1N1," crowd shuts up now.

 

That's correct and right now that is the only statistic in which both the numerator and denominator are known.

 

We don't know the denominator.

 

We don't know the denominator.

 

They are still going on about it being the flu? No. No doctor says that. They are calling it a pneumonia. What is wrong with people? Why the need to downplay this as "not so bad," and "just a seasonal flu?" I mean, c'mon already - the entire world is in on this and only some thick headed Americans are pretending it's a nothing burger.

 

And unfortunately it doesn't tell us much about R0 or morbidity rates, so why bring it out?

 

And every day the model predictions are moving down.

 

We don't know the denominator in any of your metrics.

 

I can't remember how many died from H1N1, todays deaths were expected and to give you an idea we've gone from a possible 2 million deaths to 200,000 and yesterday's model was around 55,000 if we keep this pace up. We the people have made a big difference in the last two weeks.

 

But we do know that people are dying at a much higher rate than peak flu season. We do know that hospitals in hot spots are running out of medical resources - something not seen by flu. We know doctors and nurses are dying from contracting cv-19 something unheard of with flu.
So you're right, we don't know the denominator but there's more than enough evidence to conclude that cv-19 is more deadly.