Corona Virus Update

Sweden is not testing nearly enough, so it has no real idea how many cases there are or which direction they are moving in.

 

Sweden is not doing well in the deaths per million category. I imagine the reason it's not making waves is because it has a small population- under 11 million. But if you look at deaths per million, it's actually the 12th highest country in the world. The UK is worse (105 per million), but the U.S. is actually better (The U.S. now comes in at 18th highest, at 45 per million).

Oh, and I agree with bigfella- Sweden really could use more testing- it seems it's only testing fairly severe cases. The reason I say this is that of the closed cases, 77% resulted in death. Only 23% were recovered or discharged. The global average is only 21% dead, 79% recovered or discharged.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

I correctly stated what Sweden has done and compared it to other nations which all have implemented full lockdown.

 

I’m comparing deaths per million of population. And new cases are people going to the doctor and being diagnosed.

 

There is more to this disease then simply how fast a country does lockdowns. Air pollution, for instance:
Study: Small increases in air pollution make coronavirus much more deadly

 

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You have repeatedly and knowingly misrepresented data to get the answer you want. There is no way to represent Sweden as a success without telling a deliberate untruth.

 

And every time you say that someone points out that Sweden is doing badly on deaths per million. Not the worst, but badly compared to other nations already mentioned that have locked down. Your ideas get people killed. Fortunately few nations are stupid enough to follow them.

 

How have I misrepresented data ?? What is the deliberate untruth ??

 

Belgium, Holland, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, ... all are first world countries with full lockdown and doing worse than Sweden.

 

It really has to do with what stage of the pandemic your country is in before you go into lock-down.

If you recall, European countries were actually protesting the travel restrictions imposed on them by the US last month (which exempted the UK and allowed travel from Europe through that route for a while), at which time, they were still (far from a lock down) pretending (despite the situation in Italy) that things were alright. In a matter of days, they themselves realized the mess they were in. One by one, later than they should, they had to take rather draconian measures. Most of them are now finding that there isn't anything particularly "Italian" about this virus! The same way there wasn't much about it that was particularly "Iranian" or "Chinese" for that matter, even if it started in China and they can be given the label for this virus by those who feel better doing so.

As for Sweden, I can't state for certain that they will see the same thing that happened in the UK, but already they are on the same road. They have had 68 deaths per million, but most of those deaths have been in the past week. A good chunk of it just yesterday. The trend for them isn't promising and I would be careful touting their numbers at this point in time (numbers which are pretty bad already), since their numbers are almost certainly going to get a lot worse. And as it gets a lot worse, Sweden is likely to beef up its restrictions the same way the UK did.

 

Actually the virus in New York that is spreading west came from Europe. So the China ban is a non event no matter how you look at it.
Alas it came during the time we were finding out our tests were no good.
This is a good example of why travel bans don't work very good.

 

I heard on the tube this afternoon Sweden may be rethinking it's plan.

 

Deaths are from what happened 2 weeks ago. And new cases in Sweden may have peaked a few days ago. We will see.

 

Here it is.
Sweden has 477 deaths from the virus so far, but Prime Minister Stefan Löfven is now saying thousands will die from COVID-19 and that the country's parliament may bring in more restrictive measures.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-test-thousands-deaths-expected-2020-4

 

The daily new case data over the last few days shows a flattening and possible declining trend. We will see.

They are at 477 deaths now and could end up at ~ 2000 as the number of daily deaths goes up while the number of daily cases goes down. This is because of the two week delay. If the daily cases are trending down a full lock down would have very little effect.

 

"We will see", sounds right to me, especially for those of us who aren't in a position to decide which public policy should be pursued. And would need to decide things with what they have seen already. But 'we will see' also means, to me, that we all need to be a bit less strident, and more observant than preaching, when it comes to the right policy that needs to be pursued.

For now, what is clear is this: whatever posture one takes, this is not a typical flu season. And that line of argument, which didn't make any sense even before, should be abandoned completely. No country affected by this virus, not even Sweden, is taking that posture. The choices, in fact, are a lot more limited than the arguments made here in this forum. It is often a choice between what Sweden has done so far (cancel public events and gathering involving more than 50+ people, preach social distancing, etc), what Iran has done (somewhere between Sweden and the rest of the Europe, with some business closures and travel restrictions for limited periods of time), what others in Europe are doing (forcing closure of businesses, travel restrictions, lock-down, with 'stay at home measures' being enforced), or what was done in China (which few can replicate anyway, even if they were so inclined). For almost all countries seriously affected by the virus already, the chance to do what South Korea did is passed: that train has left already.

 

Who is preaching. I’m interested in the results. There is a great benefit to avoid economic damage whilst controlling the viral infection. If you look back at my posts you will find that I state or question something which is responded to by someone who claims the ability to read my mind and discern some other motive for posting. You among many others have done this and are doing again.

South Korea correctly treated this as a highly contagious virus. Their medical experts drove this and their governance personnel implemented it. Why did our medical personnel not see this - they believed the lies coming out of Red China and the WHO. Perhaps South Korea had some insight based on contacts with Taiwan which warned of this highly contagious and transferable from human to human virus.

 

Here is an incomplete list (which may have some inaccuracies - best I could do) of the dates in which various countries implemented "full" lockdown.


Norway 3/12

Australia 3/31

New Zealand 3/24

New York City 3/20

UK 3/23

Hungary 3/30

Russia 3/30

South Africa 3/26

India 3/24

Israel 3/19

Belgium 3/17

Switzerland 3/19

Germany 3/20

Czech Republic 3/16

France 3/16

Spain 3/14

Poland 3/13

Ireland 3/27

Denmark 3/11

Italy 3/10


Most of these countries implemented full lock down in a one week period between 3/23 to 3/31. The UK did it on 3/23 when the Imperial model predicted 250K deaths which has been reduced to ~ 20K. In my opinion the decision to not lock down before 3/23 has very little to do with the data they are now experiencing as they have been in full lockdown for 2 weeks which is the same as most European countries.


Both Italy (3/10) and Spain (3/14) which have been very hard hit implemented full lockdown very early. Additionally Belgium (3/17), Switzerland (3/19), and France (3/16) which have also been hit hard also implemented full lock down early.


I don't see much of a correlatation supporting the contention that an early full lockdown results in fewer cased or deaths.

 

Whatever South Korea knew, the US knew as well. And whatever they were doing, everyone else could observe and do as well. Few did until it got worse, mainly for the same reasons some here (like you) are still questioning those measures even taken at a much later time than they should have been taken. While South Korea didn't institute a 'lock down', they did do a lot of things which only someone who doesn't think this virus is 'just like the seasonal flu' would do.

 

All of them instituted lock-down once they already had more than a few people who even died from community spread of the virus. Some where hit earlier, some a bit later. But to find the correlation, you will need to compare and contrast the cases of these countries in Europe with Germany (which instituted its measures quickly, even when it had very few deaths). In fact, Germany and the UK were pretty much at the same stage when one decided to go with "herd immunity" (the UK) and the other (Germany) decided to take more stringent measures.

 

Fauchi didn't know it. He believed the Chinese. The South Koreans knew that the Red Chinese were lying - probably from discussions with the Taiwanese.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-02-26/inside-seoul-under-coronavirus-lockdown

Who are you referring to with the statement below ????

 

There is only 3 days difference between Germany and the UK. Germany went to lock down on 3/20. And the UK went to lockdown on 3/23. There is no need to use Germany for anything. All you have to do is look at France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland, and Italy. They started lockdowns weeks before the UK and are doing much worse in terms of deaths per million of population.

 

20% daily increase in deaths! Weird definition of "fine" you have

 

The number of daily cases appears to have flattened. That is a fine thing.