Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Good evening. Tonight more fluctuations in the data as countries continue to plateau or trickle down. Things are progressing either linearly or very slowly down for most of the hardest hit nations up to this point.


In terms of cases, the US had a another drop to just below 26K as it is averaging down. Germany has been going steadily down with today's and yesterday's significantly lower than where they've been. Belgium just below 1K, it has been just over a week since their last time. Switzerland as well moving noticeably down in new cases, today now the lowest new cases since all the way back in Mar 9 (42). Turkey and Canada have fortunately stopped going up as quickly as well.

In terms of active cases, Iran, Germany and Switzerland remain the only nations trending down. Spain's pullback yesterday has been mostly undone by today.


In terms of deaths, the US shot back up very disappointingly. It is now the highest number of new deaths in a given day other than the one consolidation of New York suspected COVID-19 deaths that caused Apr 14 to go above 6K. I suspect this number is likewise involving some consolidation of data from previous days, though I do not have a source to confirm. Regardless, it shows the US still has more pain ahead and the median case for deaths in the IHME model still likely an underestimate.

Other than that, the UK jumped back up to the 800s, Netherlands back up above 100, and Sweden just had their deadliest COVID-19 day on record which shot the mortality above 11.5% and made it the only nation I'm tracking that went north of 10% new deaths today.

Other nations largely fluctuating or still trending down very slowly. Spain has fortunately managed to avoid going back above 500 deaths for the day, although ICU cases continue to increase. I don't know why that is the case, but possibly the source I use for the ICU data is inaccurate. France mercifully below 600 for a few days. Iran has plateaued a bit in deaths per day, though still has not gone back up to 100+ levels. Turkey and Brazil as well may have peaked out in deaths, which is great news to see as they were a bit later than most of the nations up here to start getting hit hard.

I've also highlighted mortality rates for a number of nations above that have either stopped moving up or have started fluctuating within a certain range, showing they may have reached about as high as they are going to go.

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And on a personal note, I think I am officially burned out on this thread. It was great for a time, when there was a lot more focus on the facts and reporting them. But now I see constant interpretation of those facts, generally laced with a lot more opinion than fact. That and constant invasion of the thread by those who seem to be only interested in spouting off partisan talking points. It is very disappointing.

Beyond that, I no longer have the zeal to follow this as I originally did over a month ago when I started posting here. I am fortunate enough to have a job where I can work from home. But that also means I am still busy most of time on weekdays. And since keeping track of this thread has started to feel more like a second job to me, that is probably not how I should be spending my free time. So this will probably be my final regular update in this thread.

Stay safe and healthy.

 

Being below 50% positive rate is standard for almost all nations. That is probably not the bar you should be using to measure any kind of success rate. Also, I seem to remember a press conference with either Cuomo or the COVID task force that was talking about the fact that sometimes you are retesting the same person - so you should not to expect an extremely high rate like > 50%.

Back on my Apr 12 post, I took some time to break down this additional data on worldometers and rank the nations (at the time) based on mortality with % positive displayed. Nations with a high % positive relative to the global average also tended to have high mortality rates (and be places with significant outbreaks). That could also just be an effect of selective testing due to limited resources.

 

I want to thank you for all you had done for bringing us the underlying statistical data regarding this virus. You have done a truly great job in this regard. Along with Stats who started this thread, you and a few others, helped meet the interest that exists in anyone with a modicum of curiosity and rationality, to learn more about a new virus that had unleashed a pandemic.

I also understand your sentiment about feeling "burned down". And this brings me to another point that we can't totally ignore either: in the beginning of a pandemic, dealing a new virus, where we have more questions than any answers, the facts and underlying data are the main story to follow. But once the facts and science become better known, and some of the issues begin to form clearer answers, the focus will inevitably shift to what would be more politicized concerns and issues.

For that reason, I am personally at a point when I want to focus less on the facts and underlying data (unless they take a very significant and unexpected turn), and participate more in other threads to discuss both the larger issues that arise from this virus as well as the many other issues that this virus had squeezed away from our focus. In doing so, however, this thread does stand out as an example of how people of diverse backgrounds and political persuasions can nonetheless find ways to communicate and learn from one another when they are facing common challenges.

 

It's not predicated on location. It's modelling for social isolation, period. Doesn't matter where you do it, the results will be good at above 80% participation.

 

New Zealand did not lockdown until March 25. They had the benefit of not having thousands of infected people coming into the country as NYC did. On a death per million of population Australia is actually doing just as well with less strict shutdown. And Japan is doing better with no shutdown. So where is the proof ???

 

None of us like what it looks like the virus doesn't care. It will exploit any and every opportunity we give it. We have the ability to stop it from spreading but some people either don't care or have nefarious motives.

I wish that wasn't the case but we can only control our own behavior and do what is right for ourselves and that is turn does right by others.

 

Nobody knows what "right" is though, and anyone proclaiming "right" is fooling themselves. We only know how we've lived, and what we thought up to this point. Politically, we disdain top-down orders, because as a nation we're not top-down people. We're individuals first and foremost in this country. And that's usually a pretty good thing.

But now we have to act cohesively, but too much water is under that bridge. Too much tit-for-tat has been had between countless Americans and I admit to having my guilt in this as well. I also engaged in tit-for-tat, angering some of my fellow citizens. Now at a time when we need to come together, we're still very reluctant to do so.

And even when we want to do so, different ideas on how to survive the pandemic and get out of this, combined with intellectual uncertainty has paused us all.

 

Great job!

That gives a way more realistic picture of what is actually happening IMO.

Yes, we did manage to flatten the curve sufficiently to not overwhelm the healthcare system so in that regard it has worked.

I just checked IHME and they have finally gotten around to updating their data and that confirms the flattening in to the curve enough to stay within the limits of the healthcare resources. In addition they just revised their total death toll upwards which was inevitable given the actual numbers. What raised my eyebrows was that the WOM site is reporting 2,800 deaths for yesterday here in the US and 7k worldwide. That means that 40% of all deaths were in America. Not good at all!

So we have achieved one goal and are not doing well on the other. We are going to be seeing additional peaks ahead and we might even have instances where two or more combine to form a spike. As long as they not all in the same region the healthcare system should be able to manage.

 

Given the lack of testing it is clear that our mortality estimates are skewed towards the high end of the scale.

That said even if it is still only as deadly as the flu at 0.01% the fact that it is so HIGHLY contagious is what makes it so deadly because when you do the math and assume that it infects 70% of the population that is 230 million people and that would mean 2.3 million deaths without any preventative measures.

Either way you look at this it is still a deadly killer that is far worse than the flu.

 

Good morning, PFers,

I hope you slept well. HERE the numbers from last night. Here a screenshot:



This is where WORLDMETERS landed at EOD (Greenwich mean time). You can see that the USA ended up with +2,804 daily deaths.








Here is where we are this morning, 10:01 GMT +2 (04:01, EDT):



The excel-table:



Part of the countries list:





In the night, Bulgaria became the 82nd country to cross over the 1,000 mark.

Russia added once again over +5,000 cases, I am assuming (probably correctly, but will research this) that most of them are out of Moscow. At this rate of growth, Russia will overtake China's 82,000+ cases and become the 9th largest land in terms of numbers of cases. Just to remind, and I have written this more than once on this thread: once a country hit's 5,000 cases, things begin to speed up. And now, after having watched these details for almost 2 months now, after 20,000 cases, things move really, really fast - the two exceptions being the two Asian nations (China, South Korean), who have already seen their peaks, at least, we hope that is the case.

With less than 35,000 cases to go before we hit 2.6 million, we will surely go way pass that mark today. I suspect that we will land at between 2,630,000 and 2,640,000 COVID-19 cases. Also, we are likely to hit 185,000 deaths worldwide today.

I suspect that today is going to be a rough day for our world. There is a lot more I could write, but need to get to work. If you are interested, you can compare the screenshots from EOD GMT +0 to the screenshots from just about 20 minutes ago and build a mental picture for youself of how today is likely to end up.

Also, in the USA, start looking at other hotspots, they will soon be taking the lead over NYC. This will be the week when the battle-fronts start to shift in the USA.

-Stat

 

NO, we cannot say that at all. A compromised immune might have plenty of zinc and still not be able to fight the virus.

In addition zinc is NOT a "natural vitamin", it is a MINERAL!

Furthermore Selenium is superior to zinc when it comes to boosting the immune system.

And just to through a curve ball into this the entire southern hemisphere is deficient in zinc, selenium and magnesium and yet they are seeing lower rates of infections and deaths. That deficiency means that there is less of those minerals in the natural diet,

So right now it is IMPOSSIBLE to say with any certainty that ANY of those things are making the slightest difference. The ORIGINAL study was deeply flawed and this subsequent VA study does NOT substantiate the findings of the original study.

Way more research is needed.

 

Ironic since when you are on the WRONG side of that "healthy" debate you end up with a much SICKER society!

 

Guess why China won't have that problem......

 

2.3 million would be 10% of 70% of the population (or a 7% fatality). .01% of 70% is 230,000.

Without treatment or a vaccine, 100% of us will get infected though. The more asymptomatic cases, the better.

 

The have trace the first case in the U.S. back to February 7th. We had three people die at home in February and they are now going back and studying tissue samples.

Implications are that the virus was swirling around at least as early as January.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/sci...originally-believed-n1189286?icid=recommended

 

The April 21st IHME update contains a U.S. map indicating when states may be able to relaxing social distancing measures. The benchmark is 1 prevalent case per million population.

We do know that the models change, sometime radically, as the actual numbers get added.

 

So, here's a look-back to the COVID-19 stats for the USA from EOD yesterday, GMT +0 (Greenwich mean time):




And here, as of about 6 minutes ago, the current stats for my homeland:






Some brief notes: 27.25% of all deaths in the USA came from NY. Last week, it was somewhat higher than 33%. So, this means that hotspots elsewhere are now reporting more and more deaths, most notably, the states of NJ, MA, PA, IL and MI, all of which had considerably more than 100 daily deaths per state.

But also look at the extreme rise in cases in states like GA, FL, CT, RI, MD, OH, IN, VA, NC and SC.

But also among "smaller" states there were startling jumps in cases, for instance, IA, KY, DE, KS, OK, NM and NV.

What this means is that as cases/deaths in NY recede, they are growing elsewhere. We are likely to be seeing at least +2,000 deaths per day (if not considerably more) for a good while.

The day the deaths stop is about one month after the virus is dead.

PS. People have been pm'ing me and thanking for the screenshots, because they really are handy for a quick lookback, at least a cursory glance.

Stay healthy, stay well, stay happy today.

 

This is the latest update of the IHME model for U.S. deaths per day. Currently, they are predicting that we will move from around 2,000 to 1,000 deaths per day by May 1st. That's a pretty quick decline in 8-10 days, but they are watching the hospital admissions data dropping so perhaps it is realistic.

I wouldn't be surprised by more of a plateau through the end of the month, but then I don't have all the data that the task force brainpower modelers and experts have accumulated and constructed.

 

@nobodyspecific

I have surely appreciated your updates on this thread as well as share your frustration with the "noise" which occurs in between tracking-related posts.

Perhaps you would consider a once-a-week or just random posting of the numbers you've been tracking and posting here. It is interesting and helpful to be able to go back in time and look at where we were at some point in history compared to current status.

You are appreciated.

 

I have to write a small anecdote here.

Just went past the noon hour with my doggies for a nice walk. Incredible weather here. Streets are empty. On the way back home, we turn around a corner and go by a neighbor's house. He's pushing 80 years old.

He's in his garage pulling beer out of a storage bin, dancing like a maniac to some pop tune like "you gotta give me your lovin', baby!". Grandpa is just dancin' up a storm. He turns around , recognizes me, and says to me, in German: "**** COVID!" Then, holding up his beer bottles, he said he's gonna do some fine "Kaffeetrinken" with his wife, which is old-German peoples' way of saying that they are going to go have wall to wall sex.

T
M
I

I busted a gut.

In that moment, that wonderful old geezer restored my faith in humanity. Cuz when a German can dance like it's #saturdaynightfever, then anyone can!

So, this moment gets one hearty **** COVID from me, yesiree!

 

Good work, dude.

The bolded: oh, that would be a shame. Come back once a week and post to your heart's content.

We all get burned out now and then. I can understand that.

-Stat

 

Hahaha! Now we know why 85% of people over 80 are surviving the virus!

 

You know, using the term "Führer" to describe any American political figure - since the term obviously refers to genocidal megalomaniac Adolph Hitler - is really a slap in the face to every American family who lost people who fought and DIED in WWII to keep nazism and fascism from our shores and to crush it in Europe and Asia.

I cannot agree with your choice of words. I find it to be particularly disgusting.

If you think that 6 weeks of discomfort living at home because of a pandemic that no American politician - of any stripe - caused, is like the misery that Hitler foisted upon this world, then I have more than 11 million good reasons to call that bullshit right here and right now.

Perhaps in the future you will consider the power of your words, nööööö. And if you have some decency in your soul - and I believe you do - then you will be a man and apologize for that totally uncalled-for outburst.

 

LOL

 

What do you mean by "Russian means" and why would the Chinese need to look to the Russians for this?