Hypothetical war with Iran

Discussion in 'Warfare / Military' started by HurricaneDitka, Apr 26, 2020.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    You can laugh at much as you want. But while the US tried to clean up the Al Asad air base before it allowed journalists to inspect and take photos of the damage some 10+ days afterwards, it couldn't clean up enough. Nor prevent information about the operation of US drones and how those operations were jeopardized emerging.

    The pictures of the damage that journalists were able to observe even 10+ days after the incident speak for themselves. As for the things which pictures won't show, while I obviously am NOT going to agree with much in this report as it is done by one of Israel's top missile experts who tries to also help out in what he accesses to be the US losing the propaganda war in the context of the Al Asad air strike, perhaps that will carry more weight with you than if I gave you Iran's assessment of what was hit?

    https://besacenter.org/mideast-security-and-policy-studies/iran-soleimani-revenge/
    The pdf version gives more details (much of it I would dispute as it mentions what Iran claims, and then assumes something else to be the facts). But the main points can't be disputed:
    https://besacenter.org/wp-content/u...-Operation-Shahid-Soleimani-ENGLISH-FINAL.pdf
    Operation "Shahid Soleimani": Iran's Revenge
    Uzi Rubin

     
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    You see, here is the problem. I am trained in analysis of aerial photos, and actually know what I am looking at when I look at them. Now let's look at what you yourself posted earlier, shall we?

    Now look carefully between impacts numbered 3 and 5. See that almost pyramid shaped structure? That is a reinforced bunker. That is an obvious "command post".

    Now look right above 3, see the dark line around that grouping of long tents with rounded roofs? That is also a command post, but a field mobile one. That dark line is more than likely a "Hesco Barrier", in other words a giant cardboard box filled with dirt and rocks. That is the kind of thing you put around a command post or anything of critical importance. They can be filled in place in a few hours, and in reality would have been finished even before the tents were finished. That also is most likely a command post, and likely the US one.

    Top left corner, there appears to be a motor pool, also with a Hesco barrier around it. Right below impact 5 is another Hesco barrier but there is nothing in it. There was something there at one time, but it is no longer there. But as you can see the barriers are rarely removed unless they need the space again, they are still useful even if they remove what once sat inside of them.

    We put Hesco barriers around almost everything over there. So why on earth would we have critical things like "drone command posts" and hangars without them? You can literally fill 1 in 15 minutes, and encircle a square acre of land in 5 hours or less. So why would we not do so in this case?

    Well, obviously we did not, because you can easily spot real "command posts" if you know what one actually looks like, and the one that is not a dirt and concrete bunker actually are encircled with Hesco. Not a single tent hit had one.

    Therefore, they were of no real importance.

    Hell, I have even seen Hesco barriers erected around latrines for goodness sakes! To think we would protect the toilets and not the local command centers for drones makes no sense at all.

    This is why I laugh at almost all of your posts. The difference here is that I actually know what a TOC is, because I have worked in them. And while I would never presume such things of an Iranian "Command Post" because I do not know their doctrine or operational standards, I find it hilarious that you presume to know so much about ours. When you obviously do not.

    And in case you had not noticed, I use quotes because the term in the US is TOC, for "Tactical Operations Center". And the small compound above #3 could be an almost textbook layout for a US TOC setup.
     
  3. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Great for you. I have posted what I needed to post from actual experts. You can prepare your own evaluation and get it published and I will pay closer attention. For now, the points I have mentioned, are the things that I have been able to establish by what is reported by experts in the real world.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  4. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Here is the main point that I don't want lost in the midst of the trivia and polemics:

    1- Most experts who have studied Iran's attacks carefully, acknowledge the CEP of Iran's ballistic missiles used in these attacks are much lower than previous estimates.

    This is from CSIS -- the very site that used to be the source for the much less accurate CEP being claimed for Iranian missiles until recently, focusing on Iran's Fateh 313 solid fueled ballistic missile.

    https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/fateh-313/
    Others who have carefully studied the attack, and published their findings and conclusions, have concluded a CEP of a 'few meters'. Iran had previously stated the CEP of this family of missile is around 8.5 meters. I think Iran's own estimate is the most reliable one.

    2- Even Iran's Qiam II ballistic missiles (from a different family than the Fateh family of solid fueled missiles) is also extremely accurate. Iran claims their CEP is 10 meters. I think that is also established by now. Even focusing just on the Qiam II, this is what a real expert (someone who establishes his expertise to other experts and not on some anonymous internet forum) analyzing the photos, damage, and everything else, has determined:
    https://breakingdefense.com/2020/01/massive-improvement-in-accuracy-of-iran-missiles-over-scud-b/
    And this part deals with the estimate of the CEP of the Qiam II. I post the extra verbiage for amateur experts, but for me, what matters is the conclusion:
    p.s.
    The idea that 5 missiles would some accidentally hit buildings like that would be preposterous. And as mentioned by Uzi Rubin, the nature of the damage is consistent with a pin point strike as opposed to collateral type damage from a ballistic missile that is hitting elsewhere.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  5. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    After the dust over the issues relating to the attack against the Al Asad air base settled, once the propaganda was no longer as germane, and once the 'experts' who had doubted Iran's claims regarding its missiles, had the chance to actually look clearly at the evidence and what it showed, this is basically what they concluded. No spin can change what Iran established by that attack.

    https://www.csis.org/analysis/uncomfortable-lessons-reassessing-irans-missile-attack
    Uncomfortable Lessons: Reassessing Iran’s Missile Attack

     
  6. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Iran Sinks Its Own Battleship.

    Well when you consider a hypothetical war with Iran, one must accept that their anti-aircraft missiles work great against Ukrainian passenger planes, and their anti-ship missiles appear to work well, against their own ships.

    [​IMG]
    Iran Unintentionally Sinks It's Own Ship

    Oops.

    The friendly fire may have killed dozens of servicemen, Al Jazeera have reported.​

    According to local media, an Iranian battleship was accidentally hit by a C-802 Noor missile during military exercises, causing it to sink.​

    ELINT News reported that the Iranian Jamaran frigate accidentally fired on the Konarak support ship with an anti-ship cruise missile during exercises.​
     
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  7. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Friendly fire incidents are by no means unique to Iran. And the capability of the Noor (so-called "C-802" by those in the media who like to use foreign, and not often very telling, designations instead) has already been demonstrated in battle against at least one enemy warships, Israel's INS Hanit. Much the same way the capabilities of Iran's anti-aircraft missile are better demonstrated when an Iranian made system shot down America's most expensive UAV, the Global Hawk, flying at an altitude over 16,000 feet, (The capabilities of Russian made systems, on the other hand, such as the TOR which brought down the Ukrainian plane, is indeed still unproven against modern military aircraft and the Syrians have been complaining about the Russian S-300 as well, asking for Iran's Bavar 313 system instead:))

    Anyway, on this incident, for now, the mere fact that supposedly legitimate sources can't help but cite totally nonsensical 'social media' accounts alleging "40 dead" or "dozens wounded", when Iran has reported one sailor who has died and several who have been injured, is itself telling. Telling because the 'social media' outlets are basically used to spew propaganda, when even a rudimentary analysis would tell you that a small vessel like the support boat hit in this incident doesn't even have a crew of more than 15-20 sailors to begin with.

    This report by the Guardian does a better job telling the story on this unfortunate friendly fire incident without so much of the propaganda and spin.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ssile-in-fatal-friendly-fire-incident-in-gulf
    Iranian navy ship hit by missile in fatal friendly-fire incident in Gulf
    The Konarak was helping set targets for warships when it was struck, state TV said, killing one sailor and injuring others
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2020
  8. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    The NOOR anti-ship missile, incidentally, shouldn't be confused with Iran's anti-ship ballistic missiles (which carry a much stronger punch and distance). Rather, the NOOR is more in the class of Iran's Nasr-1 anti-ship missiles, which are carried even by many of Iran's speedboats.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    p.s.
    I don't like "Global Security" and what it usually says about Iran's missiles, as I find the analysis too influenced by preconceived notions and propaganda. But I will post their comments here about the NOOR:
    https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/noor.htm
     
  9. Creasy Tvedt

    Creasy Tvedt Well-Known Member

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    Proof positive that Iranian missiles are effective and deadly.
    When fired at Iranians.

    Whoopsie doodle!
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2020
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  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I have already posted my comments regarding this friendly fire incident, except the number of people confirmed dead and wounded 19 (dead) 15 (wounded) is surprising given that the vessel hit (the Konarak) was rather small. I had earlier ridiculed reports suggesting 40 dead and dozens wounded, saying the Konarak would have only have a crew of 15-20 sailors, but it seems I was wrong on the number of personnel that would be on that support ship.
     
  11. HurricaneDitka

    HurricaneDitka Well-Known Member

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    This was the same type of missile that the Houthis launched against the USS Mason back in 2016. At least in that case, it was not effective against a USN DDG. Reading about the slew of defensive measures the Mason deployed, I'm not surprised by the differing results.
     
  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    We would know to know a lot more about the actual incident than what your source reports, but regardless, of course the results would be different even if the Mason was indeed attacked by NOOR anti-ship missiles fired by the Houthis compared to a supply vessel being accidentally struck. That said, the example you gave won't take you as far as you imagine. The USN has the ability to counter a few missiles fired at it, but no way to counter the numbers that can be fired at in a war against Iran. That is clearly understood even by the US navy, which doesn't really plan to have its naval vessels operating close to Iran in case of any war with Iran.
     
  13. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    That's for sure, and everyone is a terrible tragedy.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2020
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  14. HurricaneDitka

    HurricaneDitka Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that latter point is one conceded by the US Navy. The fact is, they're perfectly capable of breaking the things they want to break and killing the people they want to kill from outside the Gulf, so being in the Gulf during a hot war would be unnecessary. Sort of like, if you're holding a gun and facing an enemy armed with a knife, there's no need to close to arms length before you shoot him.
     
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  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I think it is conceded, but I am sure the emphasis isn't going to put on that point in more publicly revealed analysis and, certainly not, in some of the media reports you might encounter. There is no real defense to the number and variety of missiles (ballistic, cruise, torpedoes), platforms (mobile surface-to-ship, ship-to-ship, submarine launched, drone launched, aircraft-to-ship), and locations from which they can be launched to give the US (while dealing with many other threats at the same time (such swarm of speedboats, unmanned boats and drones etc) to be handle things at all effectively. Part of it is simple math: the US just doesn't have as many anti-missile projectiles on its ships to counter the number of missiles Iran can launch at them. And part of it is that some of Iran's systems can't be effectively matched by known US defenses (e.g., the HOOT torpedo or Iran's anti-ship ballistic missiles -- although the US would try to dispute the latter in particular). What the US has, instead, is its own offense; the ability to sink Iran's major naval warships quickly -- and then engage in what I have called aerial vandalism, inflicting the kind of damage the US believes (with good reason) Iran won't be able to sustain for long.

    The dynamics of the Iran-US standoff has been a 'game of chicken': Iran's offense being able to hit at major US interests, assets, and naval vessels versus the US ability to do more offensively in return. In this game of chicken, both sides try not to blink even if neither side (more so Iran obviously) will like to see war unfold.
     
  16. Facts-602

    Facts-602 Banned

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    I hate to break it to you, but Iran’s F-14s are antiquated, and would only last seconds in the air against the US Air Force. That’s not boasting, that’s just a fact.
     
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Iran's "air force", for purposes of any confrontation with the US, is its missile force along with its UAVs (drones). In combination, they fulfill pretty much all the needs of Iran in this regard. Precision guided ballistic missiles, fired from mobile launchers, can deliver munitions to specific targets as well and better than any manned aircraft -- with less risk of interception, detection, and no risk to pilot lives. Drones can provide reconnaissance and intelligence and while they have their limitation in certain respects compared to other systems, they again at least don't pose a danger to pilot lives and losing them isn't going to cost much.

    All that said, while the primary mission of Iran's air force is more limited and not as geared to a confrontation or war with the US, I think you underestimate Iran's air force. The Iranian air force may often use old platforms and the design of the planes Iran is building is also based on these old platforms. But these places are otherwise quite modern, with modern avionics, armaments and more. This includes Iran's F-14AI (the "I" standing for "improved").

    https://militarywatchmagazine.com/a...ts-are-very-bad-news-for-tehran-s-adversaries
    Iran’s F-14 Air Superiority Fleet is Actually Growing; Why More Tomcats Are Very Bad News For Tehran’s Adversaries
     
  18. Facts-602

    Facts-602 Banned

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    How much combat experience does Iran’s Air Force have?
    Next, are you seriously proposing that whatever upgrades have been installed on these jets actually pose a threat to the F-22?
    A defeat of the US by conventional means is not in the cards for Iran. They would have to resort too what they’re good at, which is asymmetric warfare.
     
  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I have already said this several times: against the US, Iran will not be trying to engage in too much aerial combat and rely on its manned aircraft to do what its missiles can do using other platforms. In this regard, the F-22 and F-35 planes do pose some challenges for Iran, in that their stealthy nature will make it harder for Iran to rely on its very good anti-aircraft systems to challenge them. Not that they will have free reign over Iran's skies, but stealth US aircraft should enjoy a similar capability to hit targets in Iran as Iran's precision guided missiles will enjoy in hitting US targets of interest within their range.

    Iran's tactics in any war with the US could be described as 'asymmetric". You use the right term. But I don't think you fully understand what it entails, as the backbone of Iran's asymmetric tactics are Iranian missiles, drones and other weapons (such as submarines) which are quite 'conventional' in any case. The tactic is 'asymmetric', however, since it relies less on 'head-to-head' engagements and more on 'hit-and-run' type tactics, relying on such hits on those things which accentuate Iran's strengths and best hide its weaknesses. For instance, Iran will not be fighting the US navy by lining up its larger surface vessels and send them to engage the US naval vessels. It will instead use its smallest craft (speed boats, drone boats and aircraft, and mini-submarine), use the advantages provided by terrain, sheer numbers, and its missile force, to do what it need to do in any naval engagement. Similarly, in case of any ground combat, there won't be any 'open desert tank warfare' against Iran, regardless that Iran does make very good tanks. Instead, if there is such ground combat, Iran will use its anti-tank weapons used by smaller units in guerilla style, hit-and-run, configuration similar to what you saw from Hezbollah against Israel (e.g., Battle of Bint Jbeil) or by the Houthis against the Saudi+ forces they are fighting.
     
  20. Facts-602

    Facts-602 Banned

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    Are your Iranian missiles going to reach Clarksdale Air Force base in the US, Diego Garcia in the middle of the Indian Ocean? Of course not. That’s where the US has it strategic bombers, the same bombers that would be used to obliterate Iran’s Command-and-Control. Can Iran disrupt the US’s C-and-C?
    Of course not. See, you’ve already lost any conventional war.
    Iran’s best hope is to block the straight of Hormuz long enough to cut off 40% of the world’s oil supply, causing a global recession. That is asymmetric.
    You keep going on about these fancy ballistic missiles. Ok, you can hit US forward operating bases in the Gulf states. Big deal, they’re called Forward Operation Bases for a reason. Believe me, the Saudis would be more than willing to provide air bases with more standoff from Iran’s ballistic missiles, then that’s when the 1200 air sorties a day starts.
    Like I said before, if you’re under the impression that Iran has the conventional means to defeat the US, you’re not logically looking at this scenario, but more of a point of bias.
     
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  21. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    We each have our views on the most likely outcomes that will emerge from a war with Iran. That is not what I am discussing with you. I am just informing you of the kind of weapons, tactics, and other issues which will be pertinent to war with Iran. And the kind of things Iran has practiced in its drills. In general, Iran's forces will fight the war they have been trained to fight, not the kind of war someone might imagine they should fight.

    As for your comment about the reach of Iran's missiles, it would be correct to assume that Iran can hit anything within a 2,000+ km range of Iran and, particularly for closer targets (under 1,300 km), can hit them with more missiles than any country has defenses to offer against them. In general, while Iran will not be able to hit the US mainland from any platform operating within Iran, there are a lot of targets of interest to the US for Iran to hit within the radius of its missiles. In this regard, while any base in San Diego or anywhere else in the US mainland should generally be safe, the US base in Diego Garcia would be one of those targets that Iran will be able to hit (and IMO would hit in a war with the US). This is especially true since the 2,000 km range of Iran's missiles is a self-imposed limitation and Iran can easily expand the range of many of them to at least 3,000 km+ with little effort.
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
  22. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Iran has little ability to block the Strait of Hormuz for any length of time. The U.S. and its allies can muster enough minesweepers to eliminate the mines the Iranians would law in pretty short order. And while narrow in terms of the wide open oceans, in terms of the size of supertankers the Strait is much larger than it appears. Several large ships sunk in the main shipping channel wouldn't block the Strait.
     
  23. Facts-602

    Facts-602 Banned

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    Yeah, I don’t think the Iranians would be able to close the straights indefinitely. All they would need is a week or so to disrupt markets. Then again, maybe those countries affected would have to release crude from their reserves. Either way, I don’t see any conventional conflict with Iran lasting more than a month or so.
     
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  24. Facts-602

    Facts-602 Banned

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    I think if the Gulf states dredged a canal on that finger that juts out into the Straight, ships in the Persian gulf would be able to bypass Iran’s choke point, and sail straight into the Gulf of Oman.
     
  25. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    The comments here about Iran's supposed inability to close the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is delusional. Never mind the Strait of Hormuz, which in case of an all out of war Iran most certainly will be able to (and will in fact) close to maritime traffic, Iran will also be able to seriously disrupt traffic through the Bab al Mandeb and the Suez Canal as well.
     

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