Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I love it when laymen attempt to cite law inaptly/incorrectly based on Google or whatever their Fake News tells them. Always a hoot. You Go, Clarence!

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before, Monday, 2020-05-018 (EOD GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT). Also here in a nutshell:

During the run of the day on 2020-05-019, there were some intermittent analyses:
USA EOD report 2020-05-018, posted 2020-05-019, 09:22 GMT +2, #9148.
USA update (in 2 parts), 2020-05-019, 22:55 GMT +2, #9325.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Tuesday, 2020-05-019 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

****4,982,937****
+94,813 cases today over yesterday.
There are now 103 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
The world will go over 5 million COVID-19 cases early in the day on 2020-05-020.
324,554 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,552 Americans & 1,130 Brazilians died from COVID-19.
​

You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We saw +94,813 new cases, as compared the day before (+88,858 ), +5,955 more cases than the day before, in line with the trend of a new case increase from Mondays to Tuesdays. Overall, we have grown slightly less than 1,000,000 cases over 11 days time. The growth rate was 1.94%. The day before, the growth rate was 1.85% This is still a fantastically low growth-rate, one I was hoping for on the downward slope to: 0.

The 7-day new cases average for last week: (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 88,760 cases per day, above the average from the week before.

In terms of deaths: 324,554 total. In terms of daily deaths, the world suffered +4,589 daily deaths over the day before, in line with the trend of a new deaths increase from Mondays to Tuesdays, making for a 1.43% growth rate (yesterday: 1.09%).

The death rate decreased to 6.51%. The day before, it was 6.55%.

The 7-day new deaths average average for last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) 4,684 deaths per day, below the average from the week before.

The % of recovered people rose from 38.98% yesterday to 39.26%. The % of recovered people across the world is now less than double the % of recovered people in the USA. The last time that the % of recovereds and the % of sick people were equal was on: 2020-03-014 (47.70% / 48.57%). A sign that at least this wave of the pandemic is ending is when the number of recovered people is around 85-90% and the number of people still sick is between 5-10%. This is the direction in which the world obviously wants to go.

The countries with the most new cases:​

Currently, and unsurprisingly, the USA leads with the most new cases and has been doing so for a long time, with Brasil, Russia, India and Peru 2nd-to-5th in the rankings.

56 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/4 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was also 58. Of those 58, 16 countries had +1000 or more new cases; the three days before, it was 15. The number of new daily cases in Iran has begun to rise again.

In a sign of the times, hanging consistently just below 100, Belarus, for which I wrote a quick analysis on 2020-05-003, came in at +936; it was at +922, +969, +951, +958, +947, +952, +967, +933 and +921 the nine days before. Imagine that: little Belarus, statistically on par with large, industrial European nations. Italy (+813) and Germany (+538 ) came in under even Belarus. Now with 31,508 cases, Belarus is just about where the USA was on 2020-03-022, roughly two months ago and one week after I began this thread.

The countries with the most new daily deaths:​

The USA lead in deaths on 2020-05-018, followed by Brasil, UK, and Italy. For the first time in a long time, 2 nations recorded over +1,000 new deaths on the same day. There is a real possibility that Brasil will at sometime overtake the USA in terms of daily deaths, considering that Brasil is far worse prepared to handle the crisis than the USA has been.

8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 4 of those 8 countries are from the Americas. Italy, which was just under 100 yesterday, was not so lucky today.

Total deaths per country, descending:​

There are TWENTY-FOUR nations now with over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. Poland and Pakistan will soon join that gruesome statistic.

There are 68 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Australia having crossed over the +100-line. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Croatia (96) will soon join this statistic

New: Total Tests administered per country, descending:
​

12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece. The USA has now performed 12.6 million tests - I am starting to track the daily changes in total tests performed in the USA reports. Russia has performed over 7.3 million and both Germany and Italy: 3.1 million. S. Korea and Brasil will soon also have performed +1 million tests on their populations. Brasil will get there long before S. Korea, based on the pace of Brasil's testing.

And now, on to the more expansive listing:

Total cases per country, descending (500 cases or above):​

There are now 103 nations in the "thousand club, with Sri Lanka having crossed over the 1,000 mark. Kenya (963, ), Lebanon (954), Albania (949), Cyprus (918 ), Niger (914) and Mali (901) are up next to cross the 1,000 line in the next days. One month ago, on 2020-04-019, I recorded 79 nations as being in the 1,000 club, so 33 more nations have crossed over the line since then.

Of those 103, 46 are in the "10,000 club. Panama and the Czech Republic are not far away from that mark, but Venezuela may get there quicker. In the same report I referenced in the paragraph above, from 2020-04-019, there were 24 nations in the 10,000 club, so 22 nations have crossed over the 10,000 line since then.

Further, 11 of those 46 are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 99,493, Peru will cross the 100,000 line today, 2020-05-020. Likewise, Russia, which is just cases away from the 300,000 line, will go well over 300,000 today. And in the same report I referenced in the two paragraphs above, from 2020-04-019, there were 6 nations in the 100,000 club, so 5 nations have crossed over the 100,000 line since then. The point I am making is: this is not all about the USA. Nations all over the world are being massively afflicted with the COVID-19 virus and some are in far worse shape to even begin to combat the pandemic.

Facit: on 2020-05-019 world came at 4.98 million COVID-19 cases and will cross over the 5 million mark early in the day on 2020-05-020. This means that the doubling cycle from 2.5 million to 5 million will have been 29 days, from (and including) 2020-04-021 to 2020-05-020.

Now at almost +93,500 deaths, the USA is marching toward well over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of May, 2020, possibly as high as 130,000.

Overall across the world, nations for which most people did not even know their names (i.e. "Guinea-Bissau" from the day before) are showing up in the statistics, sometimes with substantial jumps.

The world-wide curve is verifiably logistical and on the very low end of the growth curve, which indicates a definite flattening. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 numbers for Monday, 2020-05-018 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0).

And now the COVID-19 numbers for Tuesday, 2020-05-019 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Tuesday, 2020-05-019 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

*1,570,583 (31.52% of the worldwide total)*
+20,289 cases today over the day before (21.40% of the worldwide statistic).
93,533 COVID-19 total deaths in the USA (28.82% of all worldwide deaths).
Of them, 1,552 Americans died from COVID-19 on this day (33,82% of all daily deaths worldwide).
361,180 have recovered, 1,115,870 are still sick.
​

You can find confirmation of the statistics these reports at the WAYBACK MACHINE. Search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The 7-day new cases average from last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 22,833 cases per day, under the average from the week before.

The 7-day new deaths average from last week (from 2020-05-011 through 2020-05-017) was 1,456 deaths per day, slightly below the average from the week before.

At the excel-table, you will see that I have also highlighted the last four Tuesday before this one, vis-a-vis daily cases and daily deaths. You can see the trends for yourself.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total cases, descending:​

COVID-19 in the US Territories (unsorted):​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (944) is next up, but the new cases in the 5 smallest states are moving very slowly, an interesting phenomenon to watch, since all 5 are geographically far-flung states either at the edge of the US border to Canada or not even attached to the continental USA.

29 of those 45 plus the cases from Veterans affairs (12,476) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 30, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 26. SC is up next to join the 10,000 club.

The state of NY alone has more COVID-19 cases (362,630) than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part. I am thinking that in 18-20 days, Russia (299,941) will surpass NY's numbers. Wait and see.

Are people even paying attention to Puerto Rico, Guam and the Virgin Islands?

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily cases, descending:​

5 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-015. The day before, it was 6. NY was fourth, but most importantly and for the first time ever, CA came in 1st and with over +2,000 cases, not a very good sign, to say the least. At +988, TX was just under the 1,000 line and very telling is that NJ, MA and PA all reported less cases than TX. Also MN is reporting more and more new cases each day, it sure looks like parts of MN and TX are becoming hotspots.

There are now confirmed reports that both GA and FL have had "accidents" with their COVID-19 reporting, so I suspect that very soon, we will see a large numbers dump as a "correction". I am trying to put this as elegantly as one can when it becomes obvious that some people are deliberately lying about the COVID-19 stats in order to justify a political agenda. This is just plain old sad. Those states may end up paying a far worse price than NY ever did.

35 states + DC reported more than +100 new cases, the day before, it was 35 + DC.

1 state reported no new cases: AK.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, top 25, total tests administered, descending:​

For seeing the number of tests, go to the WAYBACK MACHINE link at the top of the report. The USA has now administered 12.3 million tests and considerably more are being reported daily. I see this as a very good sign. Here, from the worldwide report from 2020-05-019, followed by the same from 2020-05-018 back to 2020-05-015:













Sunday to Monday, we added +425,164 newly administered tests.
Monday to Tuesday (2020-05-019) we added +344,729 newly administered tests.
Friday 2020-05-015 (11,090,900) to Tuesday 2020-05-019 (12,645,473) overall, we had an enormous jump of +1,554,573 newly administered tests over five days. This huge spike in testing should also result in larger positives, but hopefully, less in %.
As of today, 2020-05-020, I will start doing a weekly lookback.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, new daily deaths, descending:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

5 states reported more than 100 daily deaths. The day before, it was 2. NY lead in the daily deaths this time, but its number is just so much lower than it has been the last 5 weeks.

44 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 42.

We are seeing the Sunday to Monday to Tuesday elevation in deaths that is very likely to continue through both today (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday), if COVID-19 past is precedent.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total deaths, descending:
​

39 states have more than 100 total deaths, with AR having crossed over the 100 line. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that.

Of those 38, 18 states in the Union have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths.

With 28,648 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy.

EXTRAPOLATION:​

On 2020-04-028, 22 days ago now including that day, over two postings, I extrapolated that if we "only" had +1,400 US deaths per day until the end of May, 2020, then we would reach over 103,000 dead Americans at that time, before the summer even begins. In the days since, on 17 of those 22 days, we came in over that "only". Here again the excel-table for this report; it goes back to that date:



In a nutshell:

22 days from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-019. 1,400 * 22 = 30,800 extrapolated deaths.
Actual deaths from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-019 = 36,736
Number of actual deaths over the extrapolation = 36,736-30,800 = 5,936 more deaths than originally extrapolated
5,936 = the equivalent of 4 days with no deaths at all (at an extrapolated 1,400 per day) +336 in reserve =1,400-336= 1,064 deaths on the fifth day and then the actual deaths would = the extrapolated deaths after the fifth day.

This means that were ZERO COVID-19 deaths to be reported in the USA for the next FOUR days in a row including today (2020-05-020 through 023 - Wednesday through Saturday) and then, "only" +1,064 deaths were to be reported on 2020-05-024 (Sunday), we would still be exactly on track to go well over 103,000 deaths in the USA at EOD on May 31st, which is 11 days after today, 12 days including today. The simple math is still horrifyingly unassailable.

On Tuesday, we ended the day with 93,533 US deaths from COVID-19, putting us +6,477 from the 100,000 line right now, so even just +1,000 deaths per day gets us to +105,500 without even having to extrapolate anymore. Assuming the normal upward wave of deaths in the middle of the week toward the weekend, I am assuming that by this coming Saturday or Sunday, we will already be at 100,000 US Americans dead from COVID-19.

Further, it is unreasonable to think that the deaths are simply going to stop just like turning off a spigot. Since 2020-03-002 there has not been a single day in the USA without new deaths having been reported and since 2020-04-002, excepting just two days, there have been over +1,000 deaths per day and on 16 of those days, over +2,000 new deaths.

Look at the current number of active (meaning: "still sick") cases in the USA: 1,115,870 (the day before, it was: 1,101,930). At least 2-3% of those cases are people who are in serious condition, decidedly closer to death than to life, so let's take 2.5% as the mean: 27,897. This is why the deaths won't simply stop all at once.

Let's see what Wednesday brings. I will be especially tuned-in to the number of newly reported administered tests and assume about a 1 week lag between administration of the test and published results. We may see a sizeable jump in COVID-19 positive cases starting next week.


-Stat

 

STRIKE 2

 

No. It is not. The facts do not support your malarkey here. Try again, this time with talent.

 

I love this. THANKS.

 

My thoughts on this were similar. Of course, even the smallest outbreak in Wuhan, if undetected now for almost two months and since their lockdown ended (I think, one month ago) could mean that an infected person could have travelled anywhere else in China. So, even then, I would say that this is a crapshoot.

 

This is why one should never really engage with trolls, for all they do is to suck the oxygen out of the room and force people of good will to do extra work on stuff that is easily seen with the naked eye. This kind of intellectual laziness has always existed but it is extremely prevalent among populists who have a problem with stiff right arms and tend to love to wear hats, for instance, red hats.

You too the time to type in those dates, which can already be clearly seen on the screenshot. All one has to do is to be intelligent enough to know how to read date-sets (and data-sets) from left to right, sometimes from above to below, sometimes from below to above....

 

Have you even bothered to acquaint yourself with the thread title and topic because if you had you would understand the significance.

 

BINGO!

You certainly provided enough information.

 

We ended the day yesterday, 2020-05-019 (GMT +0) at 4,982,937 COVID-19 cases worldwide, just a little more than 17,000 cases away from the 5 million mark.
By the time Russia, Mexico and Peru have reported in this morning, we will either be just under or over 5 million.

The doubling time from 2.5 million to 5 million will have been 28 days this time.

 

By this Sunday at the latest we will already surpass 100,000 US COVID-19 deaths. We are now 6,477 away from that mark right now on Wednesday morning.

 

Thanks for providing the link.

 

In ALL of WWI:

 

Aaaaand before 04:00 in the morning on the East Coast of the USA, we are now less than 800 cases away from the 5 million mark:

 

The stats are remorseless.

 

And 17 minutes later, at 04:09 am on the East Coast of the USA, the world went over FIVE MILLION COVID-19 cases:




Here the countries that brought us over 5 million in the middle of the night (USA):



And here the rough doubling time from 2.5 million to 5 million:



If last week's worldwide average of +88,730 cases per day holds, then we will come in just somewhat shy of 6 million cases at the end of May, 2020.

-Stat

 

Sorry, the date stamp on those three graphics is wrong, it should be 2020-05-020 and not 2020-05-019. Was a simple clerical error on my part. I fess up when I mess up. Again, sorry, but I think you get the idea.

And since I hate screwing up, here the data again, from about 5 minutes later, so you see the numbers have grown just ever so slightly:

 

Or to simplify for everyone, we doubled in a month(30 days time). Hopefully, that doesn't hold that by this time next month there's 10 million cases.

 

The growth rate is no longer exponential, but rather, logistical, I do not think we will hit 10 million at the end of June, but we may hit close to 7.7-8.0 million.

 

I suspect that where we end up is going to depend upon what happens in Russia, India, Africa and South America in the next 6 weeks or so.

 

https://www.cbs19.tv/article/news/l...d-19/501-9f67d400-da1f-4ce1-8101-ab0aaba6fab9

I'm thinking that this is not just happening in TX, but rather, in many places all over the country (and the world)

 

So, the CDC published this yesterday, 2020-05-019:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6920e2.htm?s_cid=mm6920e2_w

A lot of it is about an outbreak at a church in rural Arkansas, but a church in California is also mentioned. In Arkansas, the attack rate was, wow, enormous:



Excepts:

Those 61 cases are from one single church in rural Arkansas.

COVID-19 does not just spread in large cities like NY or Chicago. It also spreads out in the country.

 

Found something that is of interest for those who are tracking the data at the county level.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-staggering-death-infected-symptoms.html

This is the actual website where the tracking is being conducted and you can select the counties and see the data for yourself.

https://uwchoice.shinyapps.io/covid/

The site contains a comprehensive description all of the functions, analytics, assumptions, etc, etc with links to the details for those who want to verify it for themselves.

To date this appears to be the most detailed study that has come up with the CURRENT death rate of 1.3% for those infected by the virus. That makes Covid 13 times more lethal than the flu.

The DISCLAIMER notes that this rate can, and probably will, change depending upon the effectiveness of the various preventative measures used.

 

Indeed, I think it is the most recent. I don't like the fact that so few counties out of +3,200 in the US are in the study and feel we would be much better served with a far larger sample.