Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

It looks like all hell is about to break loose in South Africa.

Today, South Africa has reported +6,579 new C19 infections, making it rank 5 in the number of daily cases.

One month ago today, on 2020-05-025, South Africa reported +1,032 new C19 cases and was rank 14 on that day. That's a more than SIX-fold increase (6.38 to 1, to be exact) in daily cases from 2020-05-025 to 2020-06-025.

Not good.

@Derideo_Te

 

We are in the midst of a serious ideological conflict, and Trump’s anti-mask Christians I’ve heard today are totally bemused.

“Loving your neighbor as yourself” also means to look out for other people’s wellbeing, and said anti-mask Christians don’t even care about themselves and others.

 

Federalism works, if you have a working and well lead Federal Government with a strong leader.
Germany is a Federal Republic, but luckily it had in this crisis a very strong and pragmatic leader, who organized the Federation, by throwing all the political sentiments over board for the time being and got all the Governors, no matter what party, behind the Federal Government.

France is a centralized country and fared far worse than Germany, same for Spain

 

Absolutely cool.
Jup Covid White, a little cynical, but oooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhh well.

 

Philadelphia continues(for now) to be one of the safer cities to live in(and don't ask me why), so we ran 2,325 tests today and only came away with 108 positives(which is still the largest individual total in Pennsylvania but still, it's great news.)

In lieu of the large growth everywhere, slow growth is welcome.

 

That warrior spirit, we need more of it, especially in the current times, males and females or what ever and not Bone Spurs.
Nobody needs Bone Spurs, they will never sit at Wotan's table

 

Women do 'em too. And they're also fierce, in that particularly deadly way that females can be - hardwired as we are to protect our young.

It's great team spirit, unity, and determination - and the strength that comes from same. I don't doubt for a moment that NZ as a nation drew on these qualities in their willingness to fight back hard.

 

Yes, you really do. So does Europe.

Europe needs to call in her Roman Centurions, her Visigoth tribes, and her Norsmen and women.

America should do what New Zealand has done, and embrace the Native culture in a unified way, without letting that choice impede progress.

 

Yes, the French Surrender Monkeys

Love how they first approach holding hands ... as though they're already terrified. I pictured all the little COVIDs doing that, as they sailed t'wards NZ.

 

We'll see.

That sounds difficult to me as it requires identifying people coming from out of state - which isn't as easy as just looking at licnense plates.

It also has to work for public transit, planes, trains, busses, etc. Can states trap people who arrive at airports based on where they came from?

imho we should have had leadership that impressed on people the very real problem of travel while also reducing draws such as Florida/California beaches, Mardi Gras, etc.

There is a chance that people would have behaved somewhat more responsibly without having to resort to enforcement and interdiction.

I do think people listen to our president. When he REQUIRES people to ignore the warnings of medical science, when he turns their science into partisan political issues, what the HELL are we supposed to think will happen?

 

Never ever underestimate the French, if really needed they are warriors, we found that out in WWI, they stopped us and fought under the most brutal conditions in the trenches.
But never the the less that Haka was tremendous. But the French formed the Arrow, a old military strategy, heavy Cav, the Armored Horse Warriors, the Knights. Distance was kept by touching the lance of your fellow Warrior and than you crashed at a full gallop, 30 mph, with at 1500 pound horse and 200 pounds of armor into the opposition and splitting it.

The white Nights, all they needed to have a red cross on their shirt.
France was the center of them.

The Haka was superb, but you missed the symbolism of the whites.

hihihihihihihihi

 

I'll admit I went with the simpler version .. COVID as surrender monkey!. Agree that the French are formidable foes when they put their minds to it. The English are still slightly afraid, I think ... centuries on.

The best hakas are actually between Pacific teams. There's an All Blacks vs Tonga in which they get up in each other's faces and such, and the Tongan response is insanely good. Musical and fierce. Here tis:



COVID stands no chance in our neck of the woods

 

I love it, really love it.

But I learned in my live that there are 2 types of warriors. The once that are boasters and gain there strength from it and than there are the quiet ones. The pale faced skinny guy, who sits in the corner, does not talk much, does not boast.
Nobody ever noticing him, till the shiit hits the fan.

I always liked the quiet, to be at my side.

 

A drop down in US numbers today. Testing all the way up to 640,000.

Also looks like Germany is back on the glide path.
Since it's been in the news I did one on Texas.

It kind of looks like maybe they are targeting hot spots. I doubt they can trace them all, but it's still good to know.
Better day in Florida.

It looks like Georgia is inching it's way up.

Also a better day in Arizona, but way to high.

 

I will be noting this in both the worldwide and USA analyses for 2020-06-025, but exactly what I predicted came to pass:

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-025 and early in the morning on 2020-06-026, there were some other important analyses:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-024, posted 2020-06-025, 12:26 GMT +2, #10431.
Look at Mexico, Iran and Ukraine, 2020-06-025, 14:05 GMT +2, #10432.
New Jersey reports +1,850 additional deaths, 2020-06-025, 21:31 GMT +2, #10453.
New Jersey additional deaths shunted to past days accordingly, 2020-06-026, 08:18 GMT +2, #10490.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-06-025 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

*********9,702,386*********
+182,904 cases today over yesterday, an all-time record.
This week will be the last week with the worldwide total cases in the 7-digit-number zone.
There are now 128 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 490,989 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +7,030 of them were on this day.
2,499 US-American, 1,180 Brazilian, 947 Mexican & 401 Indian deaths were recorded on this day.
CHINA has reported the adminstration of 90.4 MILLION COVID-19 tests!!!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

We have now seen 25 straight days of +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 29 out of that last 30 days, save 2020-05-031. 9 of the last 10 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. In other words, every single day in June 2020 has seen +100,000 (or far more) daily cases and the probability is extremely high that when all is said and done, every single day in the month of June, 2020 will have seen over +100,000 cases per day.

Further, the daily new cases for 2020-06-026 far exceeded any Thursday on record thus far and reflects the highest daily C19 case total overall, indicating a week that is going to be far heavier than even last week was, and last week, which peaked on Friday instead of Thursday, was really an eye-opener.

There is again a +case disparity between my excel table and WorldOMeter. Please read the analysis for 2020-06-022 for the explanation. It's pretty self-explanatory.

There is a huge disparity in the daily deaths (between my excel table and WorldOMeters), which is explained here:



The weekly average in daily cases for last week was: +150,696 per day, a massive jump over 2 weeks ago, which was +128,838 per day.

The weekly average in daily deaths for last week was: +4,917, a sharp rise over 2 weeks ago, which reflected an average of +4,300 deaths per day.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +200 C19 cases and above):
​

128-66-19-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 128 nations in the "thousand club", with Cabo Verde having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-025. At between 992 and 907 cases, respectively, Cyprus, Malawi, Burkina Faso, Georgia, Benin and Uruguay are next up to cross over the 1,000 line.

Of those 128, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

19 of those 66 nations are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 91,838 and growing between 1,500-2,000 cases per day, at this rate, Quatar will cross over the 100,000 at month's end. Wait and see.

Of those 19, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. At 613,994 C19-cases, Russia would seem to be next, but India, currently at 491,170 C19-cases, is growing cases twice as quickly as Russia and will very likely get there first. In the month of July, 2020, India will surpass Russia in the number of total cases and then hold rank 3 for a good, long while. At or before that time, I will open up an excel tab just for India.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

76-24-3​

76 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 74. Of those 76, a record-breaking 24 countries had +1000 or more new cases, with Panama making the upper list for the very first time. The day before, it was 21. If you look at the list of top cases, you will see that they come from all over the world, but the Europe is the least represented on that upper list, and in fact, if you don't consider Russia to be a European nation, then Europe is not in the top 23 at all.

Of those 19, 3 nations had over +10,000 cases: the USA, Brazil and India. This has been going on for days now.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

81-36-9-1​

There are now 81 nations with 100 total deaths or more. At between 95-85 current total deaths respectively, Ghana, Somalia, Senegal, Haiti and Cuba are next to cross over the line, probably all 6 in the next 2-3 days.

Of those 80, 36 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date. There 13 nations between 500-1000 total deaths. The numbers for Japan and Austria are barely moving, but they are for the other 10 and you can be guaranteed that in the last 6 days of this month, some of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

Of those 36, there are now 9 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date, with Iran having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-06-025.

And finally, of those 8, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



USA, Brazil, Mexico, India, Peru and Chile lead with the most daily deaths.

11 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 11 countries are from the Americas.

If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, there can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is mostly receding, the outliers being both the UK (which was slow to respond) and off and on, Sweden (which decided to ignore conventional wisdom and do directly for herd immunity). Germany has detected two hotspots and immediately locked-down the entire area.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 27 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with both Chile and China going over the million-mark on 2020-06-025. As you can see China reported 90.4 milion administered tests!!:



China has now performed 90.4 million COVID-19 tests and now leads the field by far. This leads me to believe that very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 30.7 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 18.1% million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 2.7 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-06-025, the world gained almost +183,000 new C19 cases, setting a new worldwide record and sailing past both 9.6 and 9.7 million total C19 cases. And remember, we just broke over the 9 million line on 2020-06-021, so we have gained +663,000 cases in just 4 days time. We are easily on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at 126,780 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. The USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 25% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA. A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 55,054 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. Brazil's calculated average from last week was +1,039 so very likely, between July 31st and August 15th of this year, this will happen.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is picking up substantially. It is still logistical, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

In the analysis for 2020-06-021, I explained moving from analysing the USA in terms of 50 States to 57 "Units". You can read the rationale for this in that analysis.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-06-025 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,504,588**
A record-setting +42,034 cases today over the day before.
Ten days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases, for the first time ever.
Further, six of the last seven days had +30,000 or more C19 cases, a record.
126,780 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA; 2,499 of them were recorded on this day.
1,052,293 people have recovered, 1,325,515 are, however, still sick.
The recovered % sunk slightly on 2020-06-025. Watching for a trend.
​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see that in terms of daily cases, this Thursday far, far, far outstrips any other day on record and is an indicator of a very heavy C19-week in the USA, which, if last week is our guide, will peak today, 2020-06-026. Wait and see.

The topline for deaths is exactly the same between my excel-table and worldometer, but the +value shows a huge disparity. Here's why:



With the NJ revised figures, the actual daily deaths in the USA would have been +649, slightly under the Thursday before, but dead is dead is dead is dead and I mean that with the utmost of respect. The other +1,854 deaths from NJ had not been accounted yet, so of course, they will be accounted for on the day the notification appears.

The real concern here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:

57: 52-41-15-7​

52 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 47 of them are US States. At 851 or less C19 cases, it will be a while before the states of Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will. However, at 262, the pacific Territories may take more than a year to get there.

41 of the 52 UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. I miscounted it at 40 yesterday, my apologies. Currently at 7,568 cases, Oregon may be next, but it will take a while. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 41, 15 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Ohio and Connecticut are likely to go over the 50,000 line in the next 5-6 days.

Of those 15, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases.

New daily cases:

​

57: 56-37-9!​

56 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 56 being states. The only Unit to report no new C19 infections: the US Military.

37 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 36 of those 37 Units were states.

A record breaking 9 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all of them being states, with 3 of them, TX, CA and FL reporting between +5,000 and just under +6,000 cases respectively. Both Carolinas are also among those 7. Also, Mississipi joined this rubrik for the very first time, I believe. 7 of the 9 states are from the Deep South. The other two are from the West-SW. None are from the Northeast or Midwest. This is becoming a geographical phenomenon.

New daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 43-22-1​

43 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 39 of them are US States.

Of those 43, 22 reported deaths in double digits, from +10 to +80, but actually, from +10 to +1,883 (New Jersey). 20 of those 22 Units are US States. The other two Units were: Veterans Affairs and Navajo Nation.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 1 Unit reported more than 100 daily deaths, this being the issue with New Jersey and the circa +1,850 deaths that were retroactively reported (see: top of this analysis)

Total deaths:
​

57: 45-24-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 94, 90, 87 and 78 total deaths respectively, WV, ID and both Dakotas will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 24 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 23 of those 24 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs.

Of those 24 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 126,780 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 117,000-126,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of literally ALL of SIMI VALLEY or almost all of KENT, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 3,085 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts a little less than 4.5 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

Some observations looking at today (2020-06-026) and tomorrow (2020-06-027): assuming just +149,000 C19 cases per day apiece today and tomorrow, we will hit 10 million cases at the end of day on Saturday. And since the death rate is currently 5.06% for both the world and the USA (it's not been that way for a long, long time), the very likely, non the same day, we will hit or go over one-half million COVID-19 deaths.

For me, this is especially poignant, as I started to look at the C19 numbers on 2020-02-027, exactly four months ago as of tomorrow, and then, as concern grew within me, I opened this thread on 2020-03-014/2020-03-015. At that time, the world only had a little over 82,000 C19 infections reported.

With China having administered 90.4 MILLION C19 tests (I assume, split between the Wuhan Province and Beijing), the logical assumption is that their C19 case numbers and death numbers may rise suddenly and in a very shocking fashion. Otherwise, there would have been no reason for China to put its capitol city on lockdown. So, once we hit 10 million C19 cases, it may jump to 20 million quicker that I thought, to be sure.

The pyschology of seeing such massive numbers cannot be underestimated but it should also not be overplayed. What should be more disturbing to all of us as living, breathing sentient beings is that in many parts of the world, we are losing the battle against this virus. This is especially the case in North, Middle and South America.

And further, I think it would be good to remember that we are still within the FIRST wave, it has not ended. In fact, it may not end at all and just well-up into a mightier second wave when colder weather hits the northern hemisphere of our beloved planet.

I am truly concerned that too many US-Americans are not really taking this seriously, that a nonchalant "well, what the ****, I'm young, it won't kill me, so screw the rest, they are on their own and btw get the **** off my lawn" mentality has taken root in many corners of the USA - a recipe for the worst disaster in the history of the nation. We are now facing the REAL possibility that the C19 death toll could exceed the death toll from the US Civil War (1861-1865) by the end of this year.

Yesterday, I went to a 7 am Minyan service at my Synagogue to pray specifically for my American brothers and sisters.

-Stat

 

. All of this is sad and sobering news to really give us a reality gut check, just as we thought we might've had a handle on things. I admittedly don't understand the terminology of "first and second wave", as though there's periodic times of infection(like the tides of an ocean.) The way I saw it, is that there's only one real wave and that wave recedes when we stop adding cases.


I definitely do however believe that we're all in this together, and that more of that spirit needs to prevail if we're to save lives. Wear a mask, separate 6 feet and don't be a hero or a fool.

 

Many dissenters/whistleblowers HAVE come forward, and they are quickly censored by TPTB.

 

Probably 1 million? Is that like Tony's claim that probably 2 million US were going to die?

It doesn't take 1 million people to pull off a plandemic. All it would take would be certain individuals in strategic locations to agree to stampede the public. With the assistance of the mainstream media harping about it 24/7, it would be a cake walk.

 

I'm not an expert on this by far, but I do believe that by "wave", epidemiologists mean that the virus hits ad rises to an an intensive peak and then seems to fade quite a bit. And then, when we think the virus may completely disappear, it reappears. In 1918-1919, the Flu that is often and very incorrectly called the "Spanish Flu" hit in three waves, with the first wave being relatively small, the middle wave being enormous and the third wave a major drop-off from the second wave. The second wave hit so fast and furious - and unexpectedly- that there was not enough time to construct enough coffins for the dead in many parts of the world. Also, it hit with such severity in the USA that at some point in time, the doctors were overwhelmed and stopped listing the cause of death as "Influenza" on the death certificates because it was obvious to everyone that every single person who died in the triage halls of America died from the flu. Also, a number of millions died at home, their bodies were discovered days (or weeks) later and simply buried - without death certificate.

The Flu also wreaked havoc with the 1920 census, which is incomplete at best, but if you look closely, the number of "boarders" was far higher in 1920 than in 1910. So, WWI and the "Spanish" Flu really did a number on Americans, as well as the rest of the world.

This is why epidemiologists of note are referring very often to a second wave, which feels very weird since we are most definitely not out of the first wave yet.

I fear that this generation has become such an instant-tea generation that it lacks the patience of concentration to get through anything.

 

This is false. People should not spread falsehoods or propaganda. That is extremely bad.

Tony Fauci did not say that probably 2 million "were going to" die, which both infers and implies the word "would". He said that up to 2 million "could" die. That is an enormous difference, a diffrence that adults in the room immediately understand.

Please educate yourself and consult a dictionary to learn the difference between the words "would" and "could".

Therefore, your pitiful attempt to conflate what Dr. Fauci say about a possible outcome with this hair-brained conspiracy theory that a pandemic was planned by evil deep-world forces to enslave homo-sapiens fails miserably.

Better luck to you next time. Hat-tip, take it or leave it: tell the truth. Speak facts and not propaganda.

 

So, it's 10:40 AM on the East Coast of the USA and the world has already jumped +52,000 cases; further, only 1,700 of those new cases are currently being reported from the USA....

There are a little more than 7 hours left in my day, 9 hours left in WorldOMeter's day and 13 hours left in the day on the East Coast of the USA.... and already, +52,000, just like that....

 

Honestly, I do see the problem with terming something a "Spanish" flu, when the flu is now so prevalent that terming it Spanish Flu doesn't really help at all. Same thing with the coronavirus, now that it's literally in every country of the world calling it the "Wuhan virus" or "kung flu" or whatever, doesn't really make sense.

Does it create prejudice? I don't know, maybe among the stupidest of humans(who we can be sure, would've committed a crime anyway) but I do know at the least, it's not helpful or productive.

That explanation of waves makes very logical sense though BTW. So it's an "ebb and flow" of cases. I think in our present situation, you've hit the nail on the head that the first wave may not have totally subsided, and that we're adding a second wave of cases onto the first wave.

Or, if we're using the numbers we can say that the 1.3 ish million cases that have been resolved was the first wave, and the other 1.5-ish million that are still active is the second wave, that makes sense to me. I think that we should only use active cases, as total cases ends up conflating resolved and active cases together and that actually muddies the picture a bit.