Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Overall case fatality rate, according to the CDC, is 0.26%. That means 99.74% of people infected survive. There is nothing to refute. That is just a fact.

And nobody defines "mortality rate" that way except you.

I already debunked that garbage study. Direct quote from the author of the study, "Our results came out before the large numbers who were dying in care homes became apparent..."

The large majority of deaths attributed to COVID occur in nursing homes. The average nursing home resident dies within 5 months of arriving. Ruining society for 99% of society in order to protect people in nursing homes is literal insanity.

 

We're nowhere near 800,000 dead Americans, so the real case fatality rate must be much lower then.

 

That is literally the way mortality rate is defined at the wikipedia page on mortality rate with the lone exception being that you usually express that metric based on a period of time as well.

And that is an estimate based on how they thing this virus will eventually model out once it is completed. That is not an estimate on the current fatality rate.

Your "direct quote" is a tiny, tiny portion of their overall response and the rest of the response makes it abundantly clear why they stand by the 11-13 year range estimate. But even if you use the most restrictive interpretation of the data and the most restrictive analysis for quality of life years as opposed to just being alive, then this virus still takes an average of three years off.

 

Only if you are a) admitting that the CDC estimate you want to use as gospel is wrong or b) fail to recognize that less than 10% of the US population has been infected as opposed to near 100% that we will eventually reach in the absence of a vaccine.

 

In this post from April 29th, @Statistikhengst extrapolated the number of dead in the US by the end of May - a full month later. His extrapolation came to 103,000.

By May 31st, the US had 106,000 deaths.

 

BINGO

 

The evidence is all over this thread.
Either you are motivated enough to read the material and discern it, or not.

 

331,000,000 * 0.0028 = 926,800 deaths.

The bolded: this is an outright untruth. Your lack of humanity and compassion is absolutely stunning. Something is seriously wrong with you. Seriously.

 

What is this hot, fresh yet very stinky malarkey? The two screenshots were of TESTS PERFORMED.

 

This is an untruth, told by you. Once again, you get personal instead of actually debating. You do not possess the ability to debate like an adult. I don't have time to put up with your nonsensical malarkey.

STRIKE 3.

Bye-Bye. Enjoy your trip to Cyberia.

 

Let's try this another way, since it was evidently too logical in its original form:

If your cases are DROPPING, increasing your testing will show that.

If your cases are RISING, increasing your testing will show that.

If your cases are STABLE, increasing your testing will show that.

It's all about the daily count. That's what matters.

 

BINGO

 

You have that Virus rather bad, bro and are in serious need of internal desinfection, Alcooooooooohhuoul gills virus.

Talking to yourself is not a good sign.


burrrrrrrrrppppppp

 

Here's a crazy idea:

How about following the plan that CDC has proposed?

I know the excitment of the whiplash effect of jumping from hot to cold and back might be missed, but this IS a medical issue, and ignoring medical advice does hit me as more than a little perverse.

 

Death pannels? Really?

Other than that, death is NOT the only long term damage an individual suffers from COVID.

Limiting your concern to death is just not consistent with rational thought about COVID and health.

 

Positives moved up again today.

But today for some reason we did it without many tests in Arizona.

Weekend dip in Texas

Florida looks like it would like to turn around, but it's to early.


California is flat, but 1/2 the cases are in LA.

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before.

On 2020-06-027, 20:11 GMT +2 / 14:11 EDT, the world arrived at 10-MILLION total COVID-19 cases. Just 2 days and 6 hours later, the world has already advanced to 10.4 million C19 cases.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-029, there were two other important analyses:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-028, posted 2020-06-029, 12:00 GMT +2, #10710.
Excel-tables for worldwide and top 5 nations, posted 2020-06-029, 12:18 GMT +2, #10711.
New 7-day rolling average system as of today, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Monday, 2020-06-029 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍ 10,402,906 ֍
+164,619 new C19 cases over the day before.
Rolling 7 day average: +174,576 new C19 cases per day.
There are now 131 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 507,528 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +3,450 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day average: +4,863 deaths per day.
727 Brazilian, 417 Indian, 346 US-American & 267 Mexican deaths were recorded on this day.

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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

We have now seen 29 straight days of +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 33 out of the last 34 days, save 2020-05-031.

13 of the last 14 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. The last 7 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day.

In other words, every single day in June 2020 has seen +100,000 (or far more) daily cases and the probability is extremely high that when all is said and done, every single day in the month of June, 2020 will have seen over +100,000 cases per day.

Further, the daily new cases for 2020-06-029 far exceeded any Monday on record, 22,000+ more cases than the Monday before, indicating that this week will be even more extreme than last week was.

There is a 4,000 case disparity in new C19 cases between my excel table and worldometer. You already know what that means: that worldometer adjusted the figures for the day before UPWARD long after I wrote the analysis and those cases have not yet been mathematically accounted for. This way, they are guaranteed to be accounted for. There is a much smaller discrepancy in +deaths, for the same reason.

the weekly average in daily cases for last week was: +171,336 per day, a solid jump over 2 weeks ago, which was +150,696 per day.

The weekly average in daily deaths for last week was: +4,924, a sharp rise over 2 weeks ago, which reflected an average of +4,917 deaths per day.

Starting on Monday, 2020-06-029, I have turned the weekly average into a rolling 7-day average, so you can see every day how the average is shaping up, in real time. I will mention the weekly averages as a part of every Sunday analysis, but now you will have the option to see the math at work every time I update the excel files.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Monday were almost identical to Sunday's figure, less than the Monday before but more than 2 Mondays ago.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +800 C19 cases and above):
​

131-66-19-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are now 131 nations in the "thousand club", with Rwanda making a huge jump in daily cases and landing just over the 1,000 line. At between 996 and 926 cases, respectively, Cyprus, Burkina Faso, Uruguay and Georgia are next up to cross over the 1,000 line.

Of those 131, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

19 of those 66 nations are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 95,106, Quatar will cross over the 100,000 in the next days. However, Columbia, now at 95,043, is growing far more cases per day and will definitely get there before Quatar.

Of those 19, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. At 641,156 C19-cases, Russia would seem to be next, but India, currently at 567,536 C19-cases and now 73,620 cases behind Russia (the day before, it was 85,000 cases behind), is growing cases more than twice as quickly as Russia and will very likely get there first. In the month of July, 2020, India will surpass Russia in the number of total cases and then hold rank 3 for a good, long while. To this purpose, I have opened up an excel-table for India, here is the first small analysis: Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616. In the analysis, I predict a time-frame in which India will overtake Russia in the C19 rankings.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

73-20-3​

73 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 69. Of those 73, 20 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 22. For the second time, both Panama and Honduras recorded +1,000 new C19 cases.

Of those 20, 3 nations had over +10,000 cases: the USA, Brazil and India. This has been going on for days now. Those three nations together accounted for 88,307 (53.64%) of all daily cases on 2020-06-028. The day before, it was: 54.83%. This time, the USA was way ahead of Brazil. Brazil tends to post its lowest numbers on Mondays: the Monday before, it was +24,358, but the next day (Tuesday), is was +40,131, so I suspect that Brazil will see a massive increase in total daily cases today, 2020-06-030.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

85-37-9-1​

There are now 85 nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Ethiopia having crossed over the 100-line on 2020-06-029. At between 90-80 current total deaths respectively, Somalia, Cuba and Bahrain are next to cross over the line.

Of those 85, 37 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Bolivia having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-06-030. There are 12 nations between 500-1000 total deaths. The numbers for Japan and Austria are barely moving, but they are for the other 10 and you can be guaranteed that in the next month, most all of them will go over the 1,000 mark. Keep an eye on Afghanistan, Guatemala and Panema. They are not very close to 1,000 yet but experiencing far more daily deaths relative to the other countries in their category.

Of those 37, there are 9 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date. There are now 4 nations between 9,000-10,000 and of them, Peru is suffering the most daily deaths. It's a very strong possibility that two of them (Peru and Russia) will end up going over the 10,000 line in the month of July, 2020, but both Belgium and Germany are experiencing so very few deaths, if any at all, that it may be a long time before they cross the line and surely other nations will pass them up along the way.

And finally, of those 8, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Mexico, Brazil, India, USA, Peru, Colombia and Chile lead with the most daily deaths.

7 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 9 the day before). 5 of those 7 countries are from the Americas.

If you look back at the major European hotspot countries from March/April/part of May, there can be no doubt that the wave that hit Europe is receding. The Americas (North, Middle and South) have become the world's hotspot.

I would just like to remind about this series I have running, for which there will be large analysis at the end of June, 2020:

"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612.
And "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2 (7 other nations). It's all explained at the links. A halfway-point update was just released:

Future Upperdecks #1 and #2: the halfway point, posted 2020-06-014, 09:39, #10104. The conclusion to this series will be published on 2020-07-001.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 28 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Denmark having gone over the 1,000,000 line on 2020-06-029 (not in this screenshot, you must to to the WorldOMeter link yourself to see it):



China has now performed 90.4 million COVID-19 tests and now leads the field by far. This leads me to believe that very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 33.2 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 19.3 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 3.0 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-06-029, the world gained +164,000 new C19 cases and landed at 10.4 million total C19 cases. With one day left in the month, we will likely hit at least 10.55 million on 2020-06-030.

Now at 128,783 total deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. The USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 25.5% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA. A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 58,385 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. Brazil's calculated average from last week was +1,039 so very likely, between July 31st and August 15th of this year, this will happen.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. It is still logistical and not exponential, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging (Peru, Chile and Pakistan have now appeared on my mental radar screen). The average daily deaths in terms of raw numbers remains stabile, but due to the enormous amount of overall cases, the actual death rate continues to sink, which is in and of itself a very good sign. The problem is the huge increase in total cases, which will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 21-27 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

In the analysis for Sunday, 2020-06-021, I explained moving from analysing the USA in terms of 50 States to 57 "Units". You can read the rationale for this in that analysis.

Here is something new as of today:
New 7-day rolling average system as of today, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Monday, 2020-06-029 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,681,811** (25.78% of worldwide total)
+44,734 cases, 2nd highest daily haul, after 2020-06-026 (27.17% of worldwide haul)
14 days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases / 9 days of +30,000 / 5 days of +40,000!
128,783 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (25.37% of worldwide deaths); 346 of them recorded on this day.
1,117,177 people have recovered, 1,435,851 are, however, still sick.
The recovered % rose on 2020-06-029, interrupting/breaking a trend. That is good news.
​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

You can see that in terms of daily cases, this Monday is the largest daily haul of any Monday ever and the 5th day in a row with over +40,000 new C19 cases. It is more than double the daily haul from 2 Mondays ago!

The weekly average in daily C19 cases for last week was: +40,060 per day, far above the +27,776 cases per day in the week before. You can see from the rolling average that it is even higher now.

The weekly average in daily C19 deaths for last week was: +884 per day, above the +627 deaths per day in the week before. You can see that the rolling average is now slightly lower than that.

The actual number of daily deaths on 2020-06-029, +346, is only marginally lower than the Monday before (+363) but decidedly lower than the 3 Mondays before that. This is EXCEEDINGLY good news, but the real concern here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 52-41-16-7​

52 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece. 47 of them are US States. At 919 or less C19 cases, it will still be a while before the states of Hawaii, Alaska and Montana cross over this line, but I am very sure that in the fullness of time, they will. However, at 288, the pacific Territories may take a considerably longer time to get there.

41 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. Currently at 8,485 cases, Oregon will probably be next, but it will take a while. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 41, 16 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Connecticut is likely to go over the 50,000 line in the next days, but Indiana may get there first.

Of those 16, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. Pennsylvania is now over 90,000 cases and slowly making its way toward the 100,000 line.

New daily cases:

​

57: 56-39-10​

56 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 49 of those 56 being states. The only state to report no new cases: NE

39 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 39 Units were states. The two non-states were: Veterans Affairs and the US Military.

10 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, 9 of them being states. The non-state, with +1,539 new C19 cases: the US Military. We saw the three largest states in the nation also represented here so, numerically, with CA and TX in the +6,000 zone and FL in the +5,000 zone. 7 of the 10 Units with over +1,000 new cases are from the Deep South, 2 are from the West/Southwest and the US Military cannot be geographically categorized.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 38-14-0​

38 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 34 of them are US States. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs, the US Military, the Najaho Nation.

Of those 38, 14 reported deaths in double digits, from +10 to +41. 13 of those 14 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-24-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 93, 91, 91 and 79 total deaths respectively, WV, ID, SD and ND will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 24 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 23 of those 24 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. At 946 and 929, respectively, Rhode Island and Alabama are inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020.

Of those 24 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 50 States plus DC, total performed COVID-19 tests:​

Out of the top 26 in the listing above, 11 states are or were considered part of the South. The other 15 are not.

Pretty soon, I will start measuring the daily increase in performed tests (as reported) for key states.

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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 128,786 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of just under ALL of CONCORD or almost all of STAMFORD, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.

Right now, we are 2,288 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just over 3 days ahead of the projection.

Tomorrow, 2020-07-001, I will publish the extrapolation table for June 2020, every bit of which I reported each day of the month along the way.

-Stat

 

Germany has recorded +7 new C19 cases and ZERO deaths for today, 2020-06-030.

 

Uruguay is one of the countries which handled the virus rather good.
They jumped on it in early March. They just had a new government coming in, moderate conservative and the President did not screw around. Closed the borders to Argentina and Brazil and Paraguay, a moderate lock down, social distancing etc.
They have one of the better social safety net and for South America a rather good health insurance and health care system
People listen and now the country is doing well.

 

Which just goes to prove that it can be done as long as there is leadership that takes responsibility and they put in place all of the appropriate pandemic response protocols and precautions at the national level.

 

Yeah, If you live in Uruguay you can now vacation in Europe. Not so for the US.

 

Well, if we want to touch some inconvenient things with a ten foot pole. Let's touch some inconvenient things: This virus mainly had two strains. The original strain in China, and the strain over in Europe. Now, how many "millions" of Americans in our wonderfully diverse country(I told you I was going to touch some ugly problems) traveled to China and Europe in the span of those few months?

The truth is, we had a big viral chain literally from November 2019 when the first known case discovered. Uruguay, does not have this problem of being a multi-ethnic, around the world country. It's not viewed as some major tourist destination, it doesn't have to fear those nasty Americans or Europeans or Chinese.

Now, what to do? Who knows, from a moral and ethical standpoint. One basic solution is to have perm. screening for all persons to and from American airports to be able to instantly isolate any potential sickness before it spreads.

 

Uruguay shares a common border with Brazil that is one of the worlds MAJOR hotspots!

The stark DIFFERENCE in LEADERSHIP is contrasted between those two nations.

 

I agree that Uruguay has had good leadership, and I do think if we were more united we could've had a better result against the coronavirus. And every country does have INTL travel, that in part is why we have the situation around the world that we do.

I'm just saying, nothing bad or wrong about these people(of course not), but the simple fact is: Because of our diverse background, we could've ended up getting a virus/plague from really anywhere, and it shows why airports were protected post 9/11 as a soft target.

It just turns out that we should have a post-covid plan for pandemics in general. If you have a fever of 100, you shouldn't be allowed to fly to or from America.