Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ction-2020-joe-biden-poll-model-a9609236.html

Anyone can see that Biden is a losing candidate. Now this prediction model, which is highly accurate, shows us what we already know, Trump will win a landslide. It predicts 362 electoral votes.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump...nning-reelection-political-science-professor/

Tim Pool's unparalleled analysis:

 

“However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.”



45* might win but 362 EC votes is virtually impossible with his disapproval
He would have to win every toss-up state, every leans Democratic state, every likely Democratic state and no less than 2 safe Democratic state to do this — all while polling at -14%...

 

Laugh now.

 

A win is a win.

 

I read about this the other day. The guy is legit.

 

As I have said before this is where the left has shot itself in the left foot. Republicans and anyone who isn't a democrat is simply tired of being called a racist and an idiot. The democrats have gotten so desperate for power they advocate for shouting at people in restaurants. No one knows how many people support Trump because they need to stay silent in order to not be attacked for not being a democrat.

 

Trump will get Soundly DEFEATED.

As of NOW--Biden's Worst Case is 279...

Most Predictive Models have the Race at BIDEN 335/Trump 203...

That "article" in the OP might be one of the Funniest Things that I have ever read at PF.

It reminds me of that Poll from '36 (Literary Digest Poll):

This election is notable for The Literary Digest poll, which was based on ten million questionnaires mailed to readers and potential readers; 2.27 million were returned. The Literary Digest had correctly predicted the winner of the last 5 elections, and announced in its October 31 issue that Landon would be the winner with 57.1% of the vote (v Roosevelt) and 370 electoral votes

FDR Won the EC 523-8.

Yeah, that article in the OP reminds me of that poll in '36.

 

In other news, dogs bark and cats meow.

 

Pretty much.

 

Nope.

 

You know what your post reminds me of?

Not stuff written in 1936 - I'm pretty sure I can find them in posts written in 2016 though. Maybe you even wrote some of them.

 

Are you taking wagers....again?

 

It is to laugh.

 

Trump's handling of the pandemic is making him extremely unpopular. And we are going to see a big wave of evictions and bankrupcies soon. We are also going to see a big wave of infections and overwhelmed hospitals in the fall. If the coronavirus can't be brought under control and the newly unemployed can't be helped, Trump is finished.

 

GOP voter registrations outpace Dems in swing states: report
https://nypost.com/2020/07/11/gop-voter-registrations-outpace-dems-in-swing-states-report/

Not only is Republican registration up over dems, but its up in particular with older voters who are likely to vote Trump.

I suspect slo-Joe is scaring off a lot of moderates.

 

Doesn't even matter if Trump doesn't have the independents. Things are going to be really bad by November. We are going to see trillions more in debt, millions of evictions and bankrupcies, millions losing their jobs, tens of thousands of deaths, and millions more infected.

 

The economy is rapidly turning around because there was no fundamental issue with it prior to the china virus. Additionally Trump knows how to get out of the way for business to improve.

Not all states shut down the same way, which is why blue states tend to have higher death tolls and worse economies.

The antifa crowds and MSM may not see this difference, but swing state voters do.

But don't let me stop you-you've got this. Your map is the territory.

 

The economy only turned around so rapidly because people didn't properly social distance and we opened up too quickly. As a result, infections have doubled their previous peak and states are shutting down again. Currently, mainly young people have been infected, which keeps death rates down, but hospitals are already quickly overwhelmed. Eventually, older people are going to get infected a lot more and we won't have the resources to take care of everything. As a result many states will shut down for months and unemployment will remain well over 10% for months. Also, we will start seeing those evictions, bankrupcies, and businesses going under. November will be a grim time.

 

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/f83anlu1pp/20200626_yahoo_race_politics_toplines.pdf

In summary 78% of all voters think that things are OUT OF CONTROL and only 8% do NOT care who wins in November.

Those two results tell us there is a great deal in INTEREST in THIS election.

94% of voters who have picked a candidate are LOCKED IN with just 6% still being willing to change their minds.

Only 9% of voters are UNDECIDED at this point in time.

This poll gives Biden an 8% lead with 9% UNDECIDED which means that Benedict Donald MUST convince ALL of the undecided voters to support him and not Biden which is a YUUUUGE lift.

The OP is trying to make the case that ALL of those undecided voters ARE going to vote for the Covidiot-in-Chief because of some apparent "reluctance" on the part of his supporters to participate in polling.

The basic problem with that position is that there are ALWAYS undecided voters in EVERY election and how do you separate out the genuine undecided voters from the Benedict Donald supporters?

Or is it that they are simply NOT polled at all and therefore the polling is inaccurate since it is not representative of the electorate as a whole?

To begin with most of the Traitor-in-Chief's supporters don't actually care what others think about them and they tend to hang around with others who share their political views. The only examples that I can find are the ANOMALIES in families and/or workplaces where to express support for him would result in conflict. Bear in mind that every one of those anomalies in that situation there is probably a matching one in the reverse situation where declaring support for Biden would result in conflict.

So the odds are this voter demographic is not likely to be significant enough to alter the outcome of the election.

So let's look at where the significant shifts have come from between 2016 and 2020.

69% of the electorate think that there needs to be reforms to systemic racism and it is worth noting that as soon as 50% of the electorate approved of Gay Marriage DOMA was overturned.

That 69% is a number that MUST be addressed by Congress because it is not going away. The answers to the following questions made it clear that the Racist-in-Chief is NOT going to be the one that the electorate trusts to get that job done.

The issue of systemic racism is going to be a significant issue that MUST be dealt with and Millennials are going to be the LARGEST voting bloc in 2020. They are OPPOSED to systemic racism and there really isn't much that is going to convince them to vote FOR a racist.

In 2016 there were two factors that were significant and one was that BOTH candidates were NOT likable people. That is not the case for 2020 since Biden is ahead by 9% in that category. The second is more important and that was college educated women voters in 2016 only gave Hillary a 7% margin over the *****-Grabber-in-Chief. Today that margin FOR Biden is 39%!

To put those changes into the perspective of the OP you are NOT going to find many hidden supporters in that demographic.

The DEMOGRAPHIC changes between 2016 and 2020 are another HEADWIND where there will be a net loss of around 1.2 million white non college educated voters who supported the Shyster-in-Chief.

NOTHING in the OP provides any HARD NUMBERS for these "supporters-in-hiding" from the evil pollsters. Instead it is merely CONJECTURE based upon ANECDOTES.

The closest it comes to "numbers" is the professor who claims to have been right 25 out of 27 times basing his predictions on PRIMARY turnouts only.

What is NOT in the professor's "prediction" is the indisputable FACT that the Dems accomplished the HIGHEST Midterm voter turnout in history. The single most important factor in voting is MOTIVATION and the video touched upon it with a bizarre analogy that fails to establish that it is sufficient to overcome the LOSSES incurred to date.

What happened in 2016 was MINORITY voter SUPPRESSION in 3 key states that effectively RIGGED the EC votes. Just 80,000 votes OVERRODE the WILL of almost 3 MILLION voters.

The Progressives have been working AGAINST minority voter suppression since 2016 and their election RESULTS are proving that it is a WINNING strategy. That is what MOTIVATES them to get out and vote and it is now STRONGER than ever with the current 69% opposed to systemic racism.

Returning to the video's bizarre analogy that being AFRAID is a more powerful motivator than being mad it cuts both ways. Progressives are probably just as afraid of what Benedict Donald will do to our nation given another 4 years than his supporters are afraid of what will happen when they can no longer engage in their systemic racism.

So overall I rate the OP as just being another case of DESPERATION clutching at whatever STRAW might be blowing in the wind at this late stage,

Sad!

 

No its turning around because instead of quarantining everyone we are more or less quarantining the sick and the population at risk to the china virus-which isn't younger, working age people in general.

The numbers of those infected disease is not as important as the numbers killed by disease. The elderly or those with significant co morbidity are the ones at risk.

Please link to the hospitals that are quickly overwhelmed-because in april, may, and june hospitals were more or less empty. A lot of medical staff was laid off and that meant death for others. Sadly, many died during this time from preexisting disease, or its complications.

For every 1 percent increase in unemployment-there is a 1.5 percent increase in suicide. That is to say the "cure" is often worse than the disease.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance...he-economy-and-is-also-no-good-for-our-health

Your map is not the territory, and wanting to "help" is no substitute for knowing HOW to help.

My paramedic students stuggle with this concept.

A part of me hopes you will reconsider your feelings-which I don't think many care about.

But a part of me is educated and knows the fact that many don't, and even more ominously don't care.

 

https://newrepublic.com/article/158209/trump-losing-senior-voters

Those voter registrations might be because they intend to vote AGAINST your Covidiot-in-Chief because he has killed off so many of their friends.

 

362 is a bit outlandish

 

Except his disapproval is a fake poll.....

 

Not with Biden as his opponent.

 

Inshallahhhhh