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Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by camp_steveo, Jul 11, 2020.

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  1. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Heavens why would you link to an old article, that does not distinguish swing state likely voters?

    Lets not compare apples to oranges, wouldn't you agree?
     
    US Conservative, Jul 12, 2020
    #26
  2. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    You people have been praying for these things ever since the word covid-19 graced your ear. Hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19 are declining despite your best wishes. The recovery will be quite v-shaped.
     
    Polydectes, Jul 12, 2020
    #27
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  3. Bill Murdock

    Bill Murdock Banned

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    Clinton by a landslide.
     
    Bill Murdock, Jul 12, 2020
    #28
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  4. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    Keep in mind if I didn't hasn't picked a running mate and we all know biden's just a placeholder.
     
    Polydectes, Jul 12, 2020
    #29
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  5. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    But but but polls.

    You know they're going to stay exactly the same throughout the entire election cycle because that's how reality works especially when Biden gets up there and shows how eloquent he is
     
    Polydectes, Jul 12, 2020
    #30
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  6. CWV

    CWV Well-Known Member

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    CWV, Jul 12, 2020
    #31
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  7. Scamander

    Scamander Well-Known Member

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    Does Professor Norpoth also predict how Trump will react if he loses by a landslide? As in Trump rejecting that election-loss as being rigged.

    Probably not educated on the subject of Authoritarianism.
     
    Scamander, Jul 12, 2020
    #32
  8. Darthcervantes

    Darthcervantes Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    People thought Hillary was gonna win in a landslide and look what happened. Don't get cocky and make sure you vote!
     
    Darthcervantes, Jul 12, 2020
    #33
  9. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    The problem with any model is that if the assumptions on which it is based change, it won't see that change..

    We are so far from normal it's a distant memory.
     
    (original)late, Jul 12, 2020
    #34
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  10. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    Running mates are pretty much inconsequential. Biden himself proved that.
     
    doombug, Jul 12, 2020
    #35
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  11. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    Any normal election I would agree with you. but when the person running is a reanimated corpse they become more important. You know if by 1 he would probably resign within a month of taking office the dude 78 years old he can't string words together coherently. The only one further gone than him is Ruth bader Ginsburg.
     
    Polydectes, Jul 12, 2020
    #36
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  12. Scamander

    Scamander Well-Known Member

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    Professor goes for good old fashioned, traditional prediction model that might bare no resemblance to reality.

    Instead he should have modeled the outcome of the election around Trumps brain.

    But that would be to unpredictable to predict.

    [​IMG]
     
    Scamander, Jul 12, 2020
    #37
  13. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    I thought just crossed my mind as I was watching Tim pool discuss. Maybe the media secretly wants Trump to win. He's good for their bottom line. If they have someone to **** on they get better ratings. And they can't go against the Democrats because that's the hand that feeds them.

    Maybe we shouldn't assume the media is out for anything but money.
     
    Polydectes, Jul 12, 2020
    #38
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  14. RoccoGiarre

    RoccoGiarre Active Member

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    if you believe YouTube Professors, get down heavy on trump. he’s +135 now.
     
    RoccoGiarre, Jul 12, 2020
    #39
  15. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts"

    all dems need to see this.... so they get out and vote
     
    FreshAir, Jul 12, 2020
    #40
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  16. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Feel free to provide a CURRENT credible article that proves me wrong when it comes to seniors abandoning Benedict Donald.

    You do have one, right?

    Or are you just QUIBBLING about the date because you have NOTHING else to refute the FACTS?
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2020
    Derideo_Te, Jul 12, 2020
    #41
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  17. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    We agree that those poll results are SAD for your Traitor-in-Chief and all of this supporters.
     
    Derideo_Te, Jul 12, 2020
    #42
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  18. RodB

    RodB Well-Known Member Donor

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    As Yogi Berra quipped, making predictions is really hard, especially about the future, nonetheless I think Trump will win in a popular vote and EC landslide that approaches Reagan. I agree with the analysis that as hard as modeling is it is much more reliable than polling. Polling can be done with all kinds of devious misleading questions but most important you never know if the pollster is getting stable of even honest answers.

    As an aside, however, a candidate cannot count in anyone's prediction. I subscribe to Hannity who says a candidate must always assume he trails badly, is on his own 20-yard line with two minutes to go and no timeouts.
     
    RodB, Jul 12, 2020
    #43
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  19. Scamander

    Scamander Well-Known Member

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    But be warned; people might have suffered a lot under Trump. They might have become jobless, money-less and homeless under him.
    Perhaps barely survived the Corona virus under Trump.

    And still such people would vote for him.

    Why? Let's look at history.

    German People didn't just vote for Hitter because they were jobless and money-less and homeless.
    They voted for Hitler because they liked Hitler and his insane ranting, even though his insane ranting bore no resemblance to everyday reality, nor did it offer solutions for lost jobs and abject poverty.

    How is announcing that all Jews are evil gonna fix that...?

    Same thing Trump is doing with his anti- establishment rhetoric. (Fake news, fake judges etc.)
    People suck it up, yet it tells you nothing about how unemployment and poverty are going to be fixed.

    It's called brainwashing.

    As such personal circumstances of people being homeless and jobless and money-less matter less if they are being seduced by Trump's language.

    It's Trumps fascist voice in a fight to the death with the reason of the common individual.

    You'd expect sanity and common sense to have prevailed after the election..

    But in the end reality can be an unforgiving place.
    Just ask Germany under Hitler. Or America in 2016.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2020
    Scamander, Jul 12, 2020
    #44
  20. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Bookmarked for Nov 4, 2020.
     
    LogNDog, Jul 12, 2020
    #45
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  21. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are just going to be deleting it while acting like nothing happened.
     
    cd8ed, Jul 12, 2020
    #46
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  22. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, everything is fake unless it paints the picture that you want.
    There are some names for that type of narrative...
     
    cd8ed, Jul 12, 2020
    #47
  23. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    Sure. Whatever makes you feel comfy.


     
    LogNDog, Jul 12, 2020
    #48
  24. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The polls that were within 0.3% MOE on average?
    Ok. Have any clue what they are now?
     
    cd8ed, Jul 12, 2020
    #49
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  25. LogNDog

    LogNDog Well-Known Member

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    They are where they were at this time before the last election and he still won. Doesn't matter.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2020
    LogNDog, Jul 12, 2020
    #50
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