Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

People have been saying that hospitals were overwhelmed for the past 4 months, hospital staff are ferland they're blocking people can come in for elective surgeries.

So I don't believe you.

 

Well. you weren't here in 2016 so long story short, there were a number of posters that said Hilla would win. And I'm not talking about saying 'I think she'll win," because I said that myself. What we're discussing is posters swearing she would win in a landslide and trying to top their own posts on this many times an hour. We had one guy who is no longer here literally making five threads a DAY on this. This went on and on and on and on and on - until the day after the election, when suddenly - many of them disappeared. *Poof* - vanished.

It's like some people who were here back then never learned, and some are making the same mistake. It's one thing to say Biden will win - I myself think he does have a good chance. The problem comes when you start overhyping his chances - again and again and again. This is what I'm referring to. Like I said - some people never learn there's no such thing as a sure thing in politics.

 

We will see pretty quickly who is right in the coming weeks. Lets see what happens to the death rate. Problem is that the elderly can't just stay inside forever. The point of a quarantine is to eradicate the virus so the vulnerable can come out safely. And problem is that many 40 - 60 years are also vulnerable as well and even if they don't die, many need medical treatment. Many older people are still cared for by younger people, are in hospitals visited by younger people, shop for food, live with younger people, take walks where younger people are around, have food prepared by younger people, get packages delivered by younger people, etc. Its a lot easier to get infected when shopping when 50 other shoppers are infected and 10 employees are infected than when only one shopper is infected.

Just Google "hospitals overwhelmed." Hospitals are filling up and resources are getting tight. The states that are getting overwhelmed are Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona, all swing states. Very bad for Trump. And this is just the beginning. Hospitals will run out of resources and sick people will go untreated and will die.
https://www.propublica.org/article/...d-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200623-dmf4p5nf3few5mvjvh53vixewm-story.html

There are about 50,000 suicide deaths per year. A 1.5% increase in suicides is 750 people. Covid has killed 125,000 in just a few months and would have killed hundreds of thousands more without a lockdown, and will probably kill hundreds of thousands more in the coming months now that we are letting it spread out of control.

If we lock down and open up safely, then we can limit the economic damage to only a couple months. If we don't open up safely, then people will stay inside out of fear and we will have to keep locking down over and over again. We have already seen that nations that didn't lock down properly like the US and Sweden were not spared the economic damage.

 

holy crap! You are actually reading from a script. White privilege! Give me your stuff. You have more than me and that is not fair! Racist!

 

So apparently a news article citing a newly released prediction model is now considered 'opinion'.

 

Do you have a highly accurate election prediction model to support your claim that 'Trump is finished'? BTW, China caused the pandemic and Trump stopped travel there when Biden said not to.

 

My job is on the line here and I would be happier if we beat the pandemic and Trump got reelected. I also have a older person in my house who would be in critical condition if she was infected. The recovery won't exist until covid is brought under control. It won't be v-shaped if thousands of businesses have shut down or shut down thousands of stores. It won't be v-shaped if unemployment benefits have been reduced and evictions and bankrupcies have been allowed to happen.

 

Obama got 365 in 2012, right? The model has been more accurate than others.

 

This model discounts opinion polls.

 

Here we go again! 'wIlL yOu AcCePt ThE rEsUlTs?'

 

I have a very accurate model. 1932 election, 2008 election, 1980 election. A party does very badly when it has been unable to handle a crisis. Trump is finished if he can't bring this crisis under control by the election. He better hope for a vaccine but even a vaccine will take months to years to distribute.

 

National polls are meaningless my friend. This prediction model uses input from primary elections to predict which voters will turn out.

 

Good for you. We shall see which is correct. God help us if Biden wins.

 

More like systemic racism in 2020 is a myth. Racism still exists but it exists in all races. Blacks hate whites. Whites hate blacks. Hispanics hate blacks. Blacks hate Hispanics. Chinese hate Koreans. But it’s isolated here. There are no powerful or influential factions that are racist. The closest thing right now is this cult of Leftists that are ashamed of being white and those in BLM trying to extract reparations from people based on color even if they have NO ancestry of racism in this country. Polish immigrants coming over in the 30s didnt own slaves, so claiming those of EU descent should pay black people for past crimes is as racist as it gets. So the biggest racists right now are actually those accusing everyone else of racism.

 

Im not anti black. Im anti stupid. Maybe if you could see life without your racism filter things would be better for you.

 

Let me try another comparison between Hitler and Trump brainwashing-tactics, in a race to get elected.

Hitler called all Jews evil, not worthy of existence.
So the German people allowed him, by his election, to destroy their right to live.

Trump continues to call the media fake.
So all news is considered fake, not worthy of existence, unless Trump says otherwise

But 'otherwise' would be the truth and bad for propaganda.
Jews are not evil
Not all news is fake.

Dictators don't know the word 'otherwise'
And neither did Hitler.

 

You are a seemingly blind. We already see who is right on coronavirus.

We won't forget the dead-maybe your late night comedy npc's will, and via proxy you.

Hospitals were NEVER overwhelmed, as the death tolls, and number of vent patients was far overstated.

"we" wont lock down, just lefties-and why wouldn't you do the same?

 

Trump thinks this is the 40s and 50s.

 

Yep to those who are on the giving and not receiving.

 

That is easy for someone who is white and anti black to say.

 

You can literally watch footage of New York hospitals being overwhelmed and full to the brink. There are numerous news reports on overwhelmed hospitals and testimonials from hospital staff. What more evidence do need? It is Trump and the right who have been wrong about literally everything. Remember when Trump said the cases would be zero very soon, we would open up by easter, conservatives saying this virus is as deadly as the flu, the summer will kill the virus, we will get herd immunity, etc etc? All lies.
https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475

 

I've disapproved of Trump in 2016, and yet still voted for him.

Ponder on it, please?

 

Reading your posts, it appears ALL blacks are perpetually unhappy. This ain't so.

 

Lack of morals not withstanding, feel free to refer to post 52