One week out, put it in writing: Your election night/week predictions

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Burzmali, Oct 27, 2020.

  1. Burzmali

    Burzmali Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wanted to start a thread for everyone to put down their official predictions for election night and beyond. Not what you want to have happen, or what you jokingly think will happen because "lol, 2020." Take this opportunity to say what you genuinely believe will happen starting the night of Nov 3rd when the polls start to close. Everything from the candidates' and parties' re/actions to early and final totals to congressional seats, etc. Predict individual states, if you're feeling bold.

    Personally, I think the Dems pick up at least 10 seats in the house and flip the senate with 53 total seats.

    As for president, I expect Biden to wind up with around 320 electoral votes when the dust clears the week before Thanksgiving. Before that, though, I bet we'll see Trump trying to call Florida and Pennsylvania early for himself, and try to declare victory between 1:00 and 2:00 am EST. Then, when Biden ultimately winds up with the apparent EC win, Trump will claim fraud and get the more rabid of his base marching in the streets.

    Really, I think the only way we avoid chaos is if one candidate or the other gets 350+ EC votes. Anything closer than that, and Trump gets his base to riot (if he "loses") or libs themselves riot (if Biden "loses"). Regardless, there's no way either candidate concedes within the first week after election day.
     
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  2. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    It all depends on PA, MI, WI and MN. If Trump wins two of them, and does well in Fl and other close states, he will win. My feeling is that Biden takes at least three of these four swing states, and possibly one other, like AZ. That would give him a slim win. However, I think it is a lot closer than we think it is, it could come down to the SC having to decide the election in one swing state (I hope not), maybe PA, which is possibly going to the new 6:3 SC already to throw out absentee ballots arriving after Nov. 3rd. It will be a nasty battle, not only on the voter front, which is my prediction.

    As to the Senate, I also think the Dems will take it, but only by a one seat margin.

    Things will be a repeat of 2016. Dems will become complacent again, because this time "our" lead in the polls is even larger, and then fail to show up at the polls and make this close.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
  3. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    I don't see a scenario where Biden would be below 320. With North Carolina, it will be 335.

    Advance and absentee voting is largely dominated by Democrats across the country. So Trumpists will have to come out in numbers to vote.

    The undecided are less than 5% and the participation rate is historically high.

    All signs point to a victory for Biden.

    Obviously I could be wrong, but that's my prediction.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  4. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    It's already happening. Forget the polls, the Dems are actually substantially underperforming in early voting, with the exception of Pennsylvania they are behind where they were in 2016, behind where they need to be to offset the republican tsunami on the election day, in many cases they are behind the republicans.

    Now without further adieu, I present you the early vote numbers:

    On Monday, Democrats held an eight point, 42 to 34 percent lead in early voting in Arizona, which was already down from their 13 point lead in 2016. Today, Democrats only have a six point lead of 41 to 35 percent.

    In Michigan, the GOP has a two point lead, 39 to 41 percent in the early vote, the same as it was yesterday.

    In Wisconsin, the GOP is up five points in early voting, 42 to 37 percent.

    In Florida, the GOP is closing the gap and is now down just seven points, 43 to 35 percent. By the time early voting ended in Florida in 2016, Democrats had a 1.5 point advantage. There are still a couple early voting days left in the Sunshine State and now that you can early vote in person, as opposed to only by mail, Republicans — who prefer to vote in person — are starting to turn out.

    In Georgia, where Biden left his basement to head out to today, the GOP is up 50 to 43 percent.

    In Ohio, Republicans lead 48 to 39 percent.

    In North Carolina, Democrats have a ten point lead, 40 to 30 percent, but in 2016 they had a 13 point lead and Trump still won the state by five.

    In Pennsylvania, which polls show is growing more competitive by the day, Democrats up are 70 to 21 percent in early voting.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...2016-vote-as-biden-slips-nearly-three-points/

    We know the republicans own the election day, don't we?
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  5. ToddWB

    ToddWB Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump landslide, gain seats in the Senate, and retake the House.
     
  6. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Here's my prediction for the election: Trump tops "Big Guy gets 10%" Biden, Republicans take the House with 20+ new seats and 6+ new Senators.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  7. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    You've got to hold on to that, because if Biden wins Florida, you know it's over.
     
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  8. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Yes.. and it's trending in the right direction, today for the first time Trump is ahead in Florida's RCP average:
    upload_2020-10-27_15-27-30.png

    The other side of the coin, if Trump wins Florida by 3-4%, you know it's over for Biden.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  9. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Many of the polls that will be done between now and voting day will favour Trump because the people surveyed have not yet voted.


    No, Biden doesn't need Florida to be elected.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
  10. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Trump will win the popular vote, lose the electoral vote, Democrats will declare Biden win.
    Biden will win the popular vote, lose the electoral vote, Democrats will declare Biden win.

    Biden has a better chance to win than Trump, but the fact MN WI MI and PA are in play makes that far from a certainty.

    Like 2016, I wont watch any coverage until about 2200.
    At that point, if I see Trump has FL OH and NC, I will, like in 2016, turn over to MSDNC and revel in the dour faces.
     
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  11. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    LOL, as you can tell I hold the pollsters in very low regard...yet even I acknowledge that they'll somehow manage to take those who've already voted into account

    Biden does not need Florida indeed, yet 3-4% Trump's victory means he is likely up 2-3% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, he'll have a pretty good shot at Minnesota and New Hampshire too if he wins Florida by this sort of margin.

    You do realize that a 3-4% Florida victory is a complete blowout, given how close Florida always is, don't you?
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  12. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Trump took OH +8; if that happens again, then PA MI WI MN are in reach.
     
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  13. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    ^NO Chance. NONE.

    Biden WORST Case = 279 EV...

    Biden LIKELY EV (Between 290 and 335 EV)...

    Dems = Easily Retain The House...

    Senate = Very good chance for Dem. Control at 50/50 with Dem. VP...


    ^That is REALITY...
     
  14. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Saved for posterity.
     
  15. Burzmali

    Burzmali Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yeah, I'm kind of surprised at the folks who actually think the Republicans can win back the house. Some folks seem to be in a reality all their own.
     
  16. ECA

    ECA Well-Known Member

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    Trump wins. Dems take Senate and keep House.
     
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  17. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Don't jinx it, though :).
     
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  18. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    That's an interesting one. Would be total gridlock.
     
  19. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    Trump surprises with a late surge and claims the Presidency
    Republicans regain some house seats but are still the minority
    Republicans lose a couple of Senate seats but retain the majority.
     
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  20. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think it's close. I think Trump will eek out a win, but it's going to be much tighter than 2016.

    Preference is Biden wins by a small margin and the Rs keep the Senate and take the House.
     
  21. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t disagree.
     
  22. Darthcervantes

    Darthcervantes Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I hope its Trump but if I had to bet money , like actual cash, I'd bet on Biden. He has the 99.9% of the media in his corner covering up all of his dirty controversies while Trump has full transparency and most of the world against him.
     
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  23. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    How would you know who is ahead in early voting and mail in voting? I thought ballot counts cannot be released before polls close on Nov. 3rd.
     
  24. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump wins electoral college & popular vote...

    ... and if he doesn't I'll be busy prepping
     
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  25. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I suspect it's based on the registered party of the returned ballots.
     

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