Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

There just hasn’t been any real sign that the race is tightening. If anything, Joe Biden’s margins are expanding slightly in the Upper Midwest. And there isn’t any particular reason to expect the race to tighten when more than 90 million people have already voted and the most important news story — that the United States just set a record for the number of COVID-19 cases in a day — is a negative one for Trump.

In fact, in many states, such as North Carolina, we’ve gotten what are likely to be the final polls of the state from most of the major polling firms. The one important exception is Pennsylvania, which some high-quality pollsters seem to have kept as the last state they’re planning to poll. And those polls could matter quite a bit. Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state (it delivers the 270th electoral vote around 37 percent of the time in our forecast), so any deviation from Biden’s current 5.1-point lead in the polls there — say, if Biden climbs to a 6-point lead or falls to a 4-point lead — could make a fairly big difference in our forecast.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ould-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/
________________________________________

The Trumpists who put Pennsylvania in the red column live on another planet.

And without Pennsylvania, Trump has no second term.

66% of the ballots already counted are from registered Democratic voters.

Republicans are one million votes behind.

To catch up, 70% of the 3.5 million voters who will cast their ballots by Tuesday should be Trumpists....

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

 

If Biden doesn’t win by 7 million votes and have 300+ Electors, then I’m pulling every dime out of the stock market, cause it’s going to get ugly for awhile. Trump Fanboys on one side and BLM on the other, and Covid riding shotgun.

 

Hillary was further ahead by votes at the same point in 2016...

And minorities aren't returning their ballots.

Say what you want, but the reality is, Trumps chances of winning continue to increase every day.

 

Yep... Pelosi was complaining about the large numbers of minority voters who have not responded to the mail-in voting

 

I read the article and have come to a conclusion. Nate Silver is an idiot. I can't fathom anyone being gullible or naive enough to fall for the **** he is pumping out while acting like he knows WTF he is talking about after after being off by such a huge amount in the last presidential election. History always repeats itself. Keep doing what you do and you will keep getting what you get.


Arizona (11 electoral votes):

More Republican ballots requested 22,762 ballots but on Friday there were 43,075 more Democrat ballots than Republicans. This could be due to Republicans that want to vote on election day. Democrats could also be voting for Trump.



Florida (29 electoral votes):

Democrats lead by 163,683 total ballots returned. This includes mail in and in person. I expect more Republican to be turned in than Democrat ballots from this point on but it still isn’t enough to get Trump over the hump. In 2016 more Independent voters voted for Trump than Clinton by 13% to 15%. Independents won the race for Trump. I believe this state will go to Trump.


Georgia (16):

Democrats requested more “mail in” ballots than Republicans. Republicans have returned 9% more mail in ballots than Democrats. Georgia has gone Republican in the presidential election since 1996. I believe this state will go to Trump.


Iowa (6):

There is 131,946 more Democrat mail in ballots requested than Republican mail in ballots. There are only 20,964 Independent mail in ballots still out. That is not enough to push the Republicans over the hump for mail in ballots. Trump would have to take the election with votes at the ballot box. Trump won Iowa in 2016 by more than 9%. The polls had Trump winning by 3% in 2016. The polls were wrong. I believe this state will go to Trump.


Michigan (16):

Republicans have requested and returned 2% more mail in ballots than Democrats. If the “experts” are correct this mean that there are still more Republican votes out there than Democrat votes as they (supposed experts) say that more Republicans will vote in person than Democrats. The Real Clear Politics Poll Average for 2016 was Clinton + 3.6. Trump took Michigan by .2 percent. Again, the polls were wrong.



Minnesota (10):

This state offers both mail in ballots and early voting in person. There were 15% more Democrat votes than Republican votes as of this date (10/31). Minnesota has gone to the Democrat since 1976. If this were a win for Trump it would just be a gravy win. Real Clear Politics Poll Average shows Biden at 4.7 ahead. That is lower than I would expect. We will see if the polls are wrong in three days.



Nevada (6):

This state offers both mail in ballots and early voting in person. Democrats have 38,405 votes than Republicans so far. Republicans have 78,613 more votes in person than Democrats. Democrats have 117,018 more returned mail in ballots. What is curious is that there is a huge block (more than 75%) of Republican mail in ballots still out. The state records show more registered Democrats than Republicans. Clinton won Nevada in 2016 by 2.4%.



North Carolina (15):

This state offers both mail in ballots and early voting in person. There are 255,237 more Democrat ballots (mail in and in person) than Republican ballots at this time. This is a state where there are almost as many Independents as there are Democrats and Republicans. This vote will be up to the Independents. It went for Trump by 3.7% in 2016.



Ohio (18:

Republicans lead Democrats in ballots turned in by 10%. The candidate that has taken Ohio has won the election since LBJ in 1964. Trump will own Ohio. I believe this state will go to Trump.



Pennsylvania (20):

1,015,836 (46%) more Democrat mail in ballots have been returned than Republican mail in ballots. Pennsylvania has voted for the Democrat since 1992 so it’s not unusual for them to have more Democrats than Republicans. What is unusual is that Trump even won Pennsylvania in 2016. There were more cross party voters in this state than any other state in 2016. Trump only won this state by 44,292 votes (.7%). The Real Clear Politics Poll Average for Biden is only 3.7 points. This state is anybody’s guess. I will guess that blue collar workers give it to Trump but in reality it’s anybody’s guess.



Texas (38:

Republicans have turned in 53% early ballots. The independents have turned 11% of the early ballots. Democrats have turned in 36% of the ballots. If ALL (100%) of the Independent ballots voted Democrat it still wouldn’t add up to the 53% of the Republican ballots turned in. This is not to say that all of the Republican ballots are for the Republican but the chances of 100% of the Independents voting Democrat and a large amount of Republicans voting Democrat is just not going to happen. This does count also does not count the later vote that favors Republicans. Texas is NOT turning blue. That is a pipe dream. That is the same as saying that New York is turning red. The Real Clear Politics Poll Average for Trump is 2.3 points. Trump took Texas by 9 percent in 2016. This state will go to Trump.



Wisconsin (10):

Republicans lead in returned early ballots by 8%. There are 6% more Republican ballots requested than Democrat mail in/early ballots requested. Wisconsin went to Obama in 2012. Trump only won Wisconsin by .8% (24,748 votes in 2016. I believe this state will go to Trump.



If Trump takes Pennsylvania he wins.

If Trump takes Michigan he wins.

If Trump takes North Carolina and Arizona and loses Pennsylvania or/and Michigan he wins.

If Trump takes New Hampshire and Arizona and loses Pennsylvania or/and Michigan he wins.


Trump takes Nevada and Arizona and loses Pennsylvania or/and Michigan he wins.

 

We will find out, but here are a few things in Trump's favor in PA, huge voter enthusiasm among his base, today in Butler there were more people at his rally than live in Butler. I was in rural PA a couple weeks ago, and Trump signs outnumbered Biden 5+ to 1. Whether that will outdo Biden support in SE PA who knows. A Biden supporter I spoke with said she had no idea which way it would go and was worried.

Then there's this:

"But despite the backlash to the president, there are also worrying signs for Democrats.

For one, they may have an edge in voter registration statewide -- roughly 4.22 million registered in their party compared with about 3.53 million Republicans -- but the same was also true in 2016, when Trump won. What’s more, Republicans have eaten into Democrats’ lead.

In 2016, Democrats led Republicans by about 916,000 voters. As of Oct. 23 of this year, that lead has been cut to about 689,000 people as Republicans added more than 235,000 to their voter rolls.

“They cut it exponentially. I mean, it's a 200,000-vote difference between what it was in 2016,” said Charlie Gerow, a veteran Republican operative and strategist. “I mean, that's a small city. That cannot be underestimated by anybody. That is a huge swing.”

To put that in perspective, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre have a combined population of 140,000, many less registered voters I'm sure. The fact Biden is spending lots of time in PA doesn't indicate it's in the bag for him.

Then there are no really serious third party candidates on the ballot. In 2016 if you take Gary Johnson's 146K votes and the Constitution Party's 22,000 votes that probably took away from Trump it totals 168K. Subtract Jill Stein's 50K votes that took away from Hillary and you have 118K. I really doubt many of those 118K voters are going to vote for today's radical Democrats.

 

Don't forget your favorite......Antifa.

 

Nope. Hillary was rapidly losing ground because of the Comey letter. Biden's lead is twice the size and Trump just alienated millions of Hispanic voters.

Trump is playing defense hoping to not get Mondaled.

 

Biden is not affected due to Hunters laptop and the ongoing FBI investigation into money laundering? You think Biden's monotone rallies with his aviator glasses and party horns got any traction? Really??

 

WRONG.

So much Wrong, that I don't know where to start.

So, I will just put out one glaring FLAW in your "analysis".

There are Multiple Scenarios where Biden could lose PA and still get to 270.

 

Don't say that. I really hope it won't go bad.

Having said that I'm all in on cash and gold at the moment

 

Trafalgar correctly predicted a Trump win in 2016 even though the leftnut polls had he winning in a landslide.

 

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

 

This ain't a stopped clock.

 

C'mon man!

 

Democrats are right less often than a clock though.

 

Depends on which polls of course.

Not Rasmussen polls that have Trump and Biden tied nationally and Trump ahead in a number of key battleground states
Not Trafalgar polls which have Trump winning a number of key battleground states
Not yesterdays Des Moines Register poll showing Trump ahead by 7% (and Ernst ahead by 4%) in Iowa
Not Susquehanna poll showing Trump ahead in a number of states
Not Gallup poll (56% better off now than 4 years ago)
Not this just released Democracy institute poll, predicting Trump's popular vote victory and 326 electoral votes

But I think Nate is talking about all those MSM and University polls that got 2016 totally wrong, that got 2018 Florida races (and a bunch of others) totally wrong, that have a pathological hatred of Trump and have pulled all the stops to defeat him, lying, smearing, distorting, hiding information and resorting to censorship in the process.... but their polls must be honest and accurate....right.

Forget the polls for a second though, Trump is doing extremely well in early voting in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, the Republicans are ahead in early voting in Michigan (by 2%) and Wisconsin (by 8%).

According to democrat sources the minority vote is well below what it needs to be, they are missing 150,000 democrat voters in Florida's Miami-Dade county alone, 2/3rd of Arizona Hispanics have not returned their ballots, 75% of blacks in Pennsylvania have not returned their ballots either, the minority turnout is low in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Do the math, or ask Nate Silver to... it's supposed to be his strong suit, or so he claims.

 

I do agree Biden has the advantage still, but I do believe it will be close in all the swing states.

 

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016

Perhaps we should start ignoring the polls.

 

History repeats itself.

https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/FinalPrediction.pdf

 

2018

Florida Governor - off by 5% against the republican


Florida Senate - off by 4% against the republican


Missouri Senate - off by 6% against the republican

Tennessee Senate - off by 6% against the republican


The idea that these clueless biased idiots have learned their lesson of 2016 - Priceless.

 

Did you know that if we apply today the same margin of error of the 2016 polls, Biden is still elected ?

At 3:25:

 

Pay attention.... their margin of error in 2018 was higher than their margin of error in 2016, they did not learn their lesson, they got worse.
And in 2018 Trump who has been dehumanized by MSM for 4 years wasn't even on the ballot.

 

The problem is that we have all seen the studies that indicate polls themselves can affect the election results by as much as 8%. We also are all aware that the MSM is thoroughly corrupt, are 100% in the bag for Democrats and have oversampled Democratic voters by as much as 6%. Given all that, there is a deep suspicion that the polls are being used to influence the election instead of attempting to reflect reality. The polls could be 100% accurate but the MSM has disgraced itself so horrifically in the past four years that only the most naïve assume so.

 

The irony is that since 2016, those who have made the worst predictions have been Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

That's why they are rated respectively C- and C+ by FiveThirtyEight.