At this point, I'm predicting an easy Obama win

We'll see.

 

I don't predict an easy win. Liberals and moderates are uninspired. The general population is more concerned with personal survival than political causes. Most voters are disgusted with current partisanship but are confused as to who to blame.
Low voter turnout is likely.

The current field of republican candidates are fear inspiring now as they appeal to what most voters consider right wing extremism, but once nominated they will steer towards moderate views, and focus on the failures of the current administration.

 

Right. And this is key.
More important is how each side and the press frame the candidate and who is most successful.

And that's why I say Romney (who is hard to frame as a riht-wing extremist) would have an advantage, while Bachmann (who is already perceived as a right-wing extremist andI don't see any possible way that could change) would have a strong disadvantage. Meanwhile Perry could go either way.

 

I appreciate most of your analysis, but I disagree here.
I don't think it will matter if the candidate is a moderate or an extremist. Either one will lose half of the party.
What do you think?

 

They will appeal to the type of voter they are speaking to. In highly conservative forums they will push right wing agendas. In more general forums they will push an image of patriotism and traditional values. It's nothing new, but it works.

 

I think the party is much more split than you imagine. I guess we'll see.

 

Nope. The Far Right doesn't operate that way.
They think ALL liberals are dangerous communists and will thus back any "RINO" over a Democrat. They show up to every election and, no matter how much they claim otherwise, they will vote for the Republican.
I think you can take that to the bank.

Obama suffers a greater problem if the Republican doesn't scare the Left.
It's because the demographics that make up the Left are just less likely to show up. The fewer liberals show up, the more Obama has to depend on moderates. The less radical the opponent, the fewer moderates he can attract.
He will NEVER gain the vote of a single conservative, nor will any opponent deter them from showing up. They regard him as a socialist satanist regardless of his actual moderation (the reason liberals won't show up).

As you can see by the little catch-22 (conservatives think he's the Antichrist, liberals think he's Ronald Reagan), the conservative propaganda machines are far better managed!
Fox News keeps Obama the target.
And so do the imbeciles at Firedoglake!

 

I don't think the new breed Tea Partier differentiates between Democrats and Rinos. They are both the enemy of conservatism and they hold no allegiance to the party at all.
That's my take.

 

odrama reelection.

Last week, 428,000 NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS FILED. Highest since June.
52 weeks X 428K new claims = 22,256,000 newly unemployed people per year. I know, I know projecting last weeks figure out for a year has no accuracy. With the incompetent idiot liar in charge, the number will probably be much higher.

 

Yeah, I say we go back to the last incompetent liar in charge. Or maybe one of the new ones out there now.

 

I vote your avatar the best of 2011.

 

So Bush was an incompetent liar too. How does that in any way excuse odrama, an even bigger liar and even more incompetent fool?

And those waiting in the wings might be just as bad. But they cannot possibly be worse than odrama. When we KNOW odrama is an incompetent lying fool,,,,,,,why NOT take a chance on ANYONE else?

 

The back and forth of voting in people who are on the take has to stop. Why do you think so many of us are pushing Paul? It's not because we agree with everything he says, Dan. It is because the MSM is doing everything it can to tell us he isn't a viable option, which means he is the only one worth voting for.

 

I like SOME of the things Paul says. And other things he says are incredibly lame. He may be a good man but I'm certain that he is a 'has been' that never was.

 

I think you are seriously underestimating American's hunger for honesty and integrity in politics. Both parties are filled to the brim with people who modernize their rhetoric on the new election cycle while forever keeping business as usual in Washington. No one cares what comes out of the mouth of the average GOPer or demajoke. They are all the puppets of globalized scum.

 

Obama can still win if he can convince the masses that the current conservatives are all completely in line with Tea party values. The smart strategy would be to go on an all out attack and try to force the republicans to either line up exactly with the Tea party or cast themselves as fundamentally different from them. The former would put fear in moderates, the latter would break the conservative momentum. Of course this is easier said than done.

 

Yeah, god forbid he actually lived up to the expectations of "change" people voted him in for. Political gamemanship is what is needed.

 

Republicans are above political gamemanship?

 

No one wants either.

Democrats had full control before the tea party members of congress were elected. They did NOTHING to change the inheritance laws the all republican Washington had changed. They didn't touch the bankruptcy laws the all republican Washington had changed,. They didn't touch the patriot act they had claimed they were so adamantly against. They have done NOTHING but continued or added onto the neocon agenda. Matter of fact, wtf are you talking about?

 

I thought this thread was about an easy Obama win. I agree with you that the democrats have been ineffectual. But, it seems that Republican gamemanship may have something to do with that.

 

What I'm saying is it wasn't democrat gamemanship that got democrats full control. It was epic failure of the neocon agenda. It isn't neocon gamemanship that is why democrats are losing ground, it is their not-about-anything agenda. If there was someone with the power to hang them all, you would hear nothing but cheers from the majority of America.

 

So you're saying that Democrats got control of congress because mainstream Republicans (G.W Bush etc) failed in an epic way.
Most of the conservatives who retook congress are still essentially "neocon" if I am not mistaken.
Democrats still seem terrified of being called socialist, communist and so on, and anytime they try to enact anything they back down as soon as they are booed at by the far right. To me that is very effective gamemanship by the whole of the right, including neocons.

 

I could see that perspective if someone doesn't know the right, and is on the outside looking in. The greatest growth in a demographic is people who support neither party fully, or "independents", if you will. As for the right, the majority are paleocons, and it is true they have supported neocons blindly for decades, out of satisfaction that they were at least getting social laws that they wanted. However, the loss of jobs, and an increasing grass roots education on globalism, has left the paleocon in limbo as far as representation, as I'm sure it has the average American worker who fancies him or herself "left". Nothing unites people like a common enemy, and globalism is the enemy of both bases, as well as a non-negotiable stance by the top of both parties. "Politics" in America is about to get very interesting, if not down right bloody.

 

First off you try and ignore Bush didn't exists. Secondly, you act as if anyone coming through the current system would be different. Obama raised over half a billion dollars to run for president. The stakes get higher every year. They will always bow to someone unless we fix the system. Also your hatred for Obama is clearly clouding your judgement on how bad of a president he has been.

 

I wholeheartedly agree! This is the problem. We have a two party system that have devised a way to create fake debate in this country. The last time we had a third party give any threat to the other two, he was labeled crazy and a third party was never allowed into a national debate. Dems and Repubs have pitted middle class people against poor people, private workers against government employees, non union members against unions. It is time to stop this crap. Obama ran on his hope and change and has done nothing. At this point I have to believe he is either ineffective or a culprit. Either way this kind of leadership is not what I signed up for. The same goes for Congress. More paid off politicians. When will we realize that we are not benefiting from our government the way the top 2% are.