I think it is very likely that both the Greens and Libertarians can win 5% of the popular vote in the 2012 election. I wrote this article on it: http://freeindependentsun.com/republic/will-the-green-and-libertarian-party-win-5-of-the-popular-vote-in-the-2012-presidential-election/ And posted it with a 4-Way Poll on Progressive-Independence: http://www.progressive-independence.org/diary/935/will-green-andor-libertarian-party-get-5-in-2012
If they do, it would be a tenfold improvement over the last election. Getting to 0.75% for both parties combined would be a huge improvement.
Agreed. I think we have an opportunity to move both these parties into the mainstream. 2008 was horrible for third-parties. Without Nader (whom I voted for in 2000), this election though, perhaps "alternative voters" will gather behind Stein and/or Johnson.
Do you like either of them? Are you saying they don't have a chance to get 5% of the popular vote in the November election? How do you know they will never be a major force in America? Ron Paul's campaign is showing that there is interest in Libertarian policy, if his supporters flood into the Libertarian Party eventually won't it become a major force? Even if it only pulls 5-10% for President, they can start winning seats in Congress, and win seats at the State level. Polling shows that Greens are doing better than they have in the past. The Green Party in the UK and Canada just won their first national elections recently after being a "fringe" party for some time.
Unless Paul pulls off a miracle, the Libertarian Party is getting my vote this year. I sure hope they catch on, and I think they will. If the Republican Party continues to alienate conservative ideas, many people will flock to another party.
I think you are right. If the GOP continues to ignore Paul, his supporters will proceed to ignore the GOP and will have the opportunity to build the LP into a viable alternative. Johnson should be able to pull 5%, and if the LP gets some of the more productive activist off the Ron Paul campaign they should be able to pull some state, and even congressional, seats in the next couple elections. Maybe force their way into the debates in 2016. I'll continue to push for Paul until there is a Nominee, after that I'll start working with my state Green Party (California) and continue to help all the third-parties in breaking down this "two-party" system.
