New LearJet's start at $5 Million USD, not a billion and it's Obama with the Billion to spend. Romney only has around 60 million currently. As usual, you don't get your facts straight.
Instead of having our predictions on which one between newt and paul drops out, what we should be predicting is how long its gonna take for people here at PF to stop posting useless threads about paul...as if he ever had a chance of winning.
The question is: who picks up the extra votes if one of them drops out? I think Paul may be at his limit, Santorum votes would go to Gingrich, but Gingrich votes would go to Romney. You notice only Santorum has gotten over 50% of the vote anywhere.
Well, wouldn't it be a start for this forum's purpose and for the purpose of your OP that we get people to concentrate on the two frontrunners so as to engage in meaningful debate? This constant posting of paul posts is a distraction from the reality of this election process, since he has zero chance of getting elected as the Republican nominee. To ask us to predict exactly when newt and paul drop out is like asking us to predict when the world will end.
It's still too early to set in stone who the frontrunners will actually be. As mentioned in my post, both Gingrich and Santorum are the bottom two as far as campaign funding goes. Santorum especially (with only 6M left). If those two don't produce good results for Super Tuesday, it's quite possible they drop.
Its obvious that Santorum is by far the worst of the 4. Knowing this, he will probably stay in and win the nomination.
I'm not so sure considering the states that are in play next Tuesday, these States will be awarding their delegates proportionally. Alaska 27 Caucus Caucus Information from Alaska GOP Georgia 76 Primary Primary Information from Georgia Department of State Idaho 32 Caucus Caucus Information from Idaho GOP Massachusetts 41 Primary Primary Information from MA Sec. of Commonwealth North Dakota 28 Caucus Caucus Information from North Dakota GOP Ohio 66 Primary Primary Information from Ohio Department of State Oklahoma 43 Primary Primary Information from Oklahoma State Election Board Tennessee 58 Primary Primary Information from Tennessee Department of State Vermont 17 Primary Primary Information from Vermont Department of State Virginia 49 Primary Primary Information from Virginia Board of Elections -Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will appear on the VA ballot, see this report I think it likely that Paul could do well in some of the Caucus states such as Alaska and Idaho, and Paul's goal is to have enough delegates to have some real influence at the Convention on issues like party platform, etc. His following is very loyal and many of them will not vote for either of Romney or Santorum in the General election. Paul also has the ability to raise money from his troops pretty much at will. I think North Dakota's caucus goes to Santorum. Except for VA which will go to Romney, the other southern states probably pan out with Oklahoma going to Santorum, Georgia a tossup between Santorum and Newt (splitting the delegates) and Tennessee going to Santorum. If Newt loses badly in Georgia, it's probably game over for him. I cannot see Sheldon Adelson continuing to dump more millions down that particular rathole. I think Romney wins Mass and Vermont, and gets beaten by Santorum in Ohio. Bottom line, if Newt wins Georgia and beats Mitt in states like Tenn. and OK, he stays in. Mitt is in it to the bitter end and I think Santorum (who raised 9 million in the last month) stays in as well. The reason that I think Santorum wins Ohio is that it is less Catholic than Michigan. The reason this is significant is that Santorum lost the Catholic vote in Michigan, that vote went to Romney while the religious right (protestant) went to Santorum.
None. All four will keep running after Super Tuesday. Interesting to note that Rick Santorum's days as GOP Flavor of the Month appear to be over. It could be Mittens the Ripper in a big way from Super Tuesday on out...
When I wrote this last night, I had not yet seen these 5 state polls for Super Tuesday. They lend support to my thoughts. Oklahoma: Santorum 28%, Romney 25%, Gingrich 20% and Paul 8%. Ohio: Santorum 33%, Romney 27%, Gingrich 12% and Paul 9%. Tennessee: Santorum 32%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 16% and Paul 13%. Massachusetts: Romney 56%, Santorum 16%, Gingrich 5% and Paul 5%. Georgia: Gingrich 32%, Romney 27%, Santorum 17% and Paul 10%.
Being in Ohio, I can tell that the money game is hurting Santorum right now. I have yet to see one ad on TV from his campaign. Romney and his Pac (Restore Our Future) have been the strongest running ads on TV right now. Driving around though, I have only seen a couple Romney signs. I've seen quite a few for Paul. I have yet to see any for Gingrich or Santorum...
Who will drop out? Santorum will be first. His support is starting to waiver. People like to back a winner. When Santorum stuck his foot in his mouth and lost Michigan, he pretty much put doubt in peoples heads whether Rick is ready for prime time. Newt? Well it depends if his Sugar Daddy give him more money to run. Paul. He has his sugar daddy too. But Ron Paul and his supporters are on a evangelical quest to convert Americans to the Libertarian philosophy. It stands to reason that staying in the race will give his philosophy free air time. So Ron and company will stay in the race to the end.