Super Tuesday Drop Out Predictions

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Krypt, Feb 29, 2012.

  1. CoolWalker

    CoolWalker New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    3,979
    Likes Received:
    167
    Trophy Points:
    0
    New LearJet's start at $5 Million USD, not a billion and it's Obama with the Billion to spend. Romney only has around 60 million currently. As usual, you don't get your facts straight.
     
  2. Libhater

    Libhater Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    12,500
    Likes Received:
    2,486
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Instead of having our predictions on which one between newt and paul drops out, what we should be predicting is how long its gonna take for people here at PF to stop posting useless threads about paul...as if he ever had a chance of winning.
     
  3. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    The question is: who picks up the extra votes if one of them drops out? I think Paul may be at his limit, Santorum votes would go to Gingrich, but Gingrich votes would go to Romney.
    You notice only Santorum has gotten over 50% of the vote anywhere.
     
  4. Krypt

    Krypt New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,640
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    0
    How about we stay on topic of my post as I seeing it veering off course...
     
  5. Libhater

    Libhater Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    12,500
    Likes Received:
    2,486
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    Well, wouldn't it be a start for this forum's purpose and for the purpose of your OP that we get people to concentrate on the two frontrunners so as to engage in meaningful debate? This constant posting of paul posts is a distraction from the reality of this election process, since he has zero chance of getting elected as the Republican nominee. To ask us to predict exactly when newt and paul drop out is like asking us to predict when the world will end. :shh:
     
  6. Krypt

    Krypt New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,640
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    0
    It's still too early to set in stone who the frontrunners will actually be. As mentioned in my post, both Gingrich and Santorum are the bottom two as far as campaign funding goes. Santorum especially (with only 6M left). If those two don't produce good results for Super Tuesday, it's quite possible they drop.
     
  7. Libhater

    Libhater Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    12,500
    Likes Received:
    2,486
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I hope your right.
     
  8. freakonature

    freakonature Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2008
    Messages:
    10,885
    Likes Received:
    1,408
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Its obvious that Santorum is by far the worst of the 4. Knowing this, he will probably stay in and win the nomination.
     
  9. Curmudgeon

    Curmudgeon New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2011
    Messages:
    3,517
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I'm not so sure considering the states that are in play next Tuesday, these States will be awarding their delegates proportionally.

    • Alaska
      27 Caucus Caucus Information from Alaska GOP
      Georgia
      76 Primary Primary Information from Georgia Department of State
      Idaho
      32 Caucus Caucus Information from Idaho GOP
      Massachusetts
      41 Primary Primary Information from MA Sec. of Commonwealth
      North Dakota 28 Caucus Caucus Information from North Dakota GOP
      Ohio
      66 Primary Primary Information from Ohio Department of State
      Oklahoma
      43 Primary Primary Information from Oklahoma State Election Board
      Tennessee
      58 Primary Primary Information from Tennessee Department of State
      Vermont
      17 Primary Primary Information from Vermont Department of State
      Virginia
      49 Primary Primary Information from Virginia Board of Elections
      -Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will appear on the VA ballot, see this report

    I think it likely that Paul could do well in some of the Caucus states such as Alaska and Idaho, and Paul's goal is to have enough delegates to have some real influence at the Convention on issues like party platform, etc. His following is very loyal and many of them will not vote for either of Romney or Santorum in the General election. Paul also has the ability to raise money from his troops pretty much at will. I think North Dakota's caucus goes to Santorum.

    Except for VA which will go to Romney, the other southern states probably pan out with Oklahoma going to Santorum, Georgia a tossup between Santorum and Newt (splitting the delegates) and Tennessee going to Santorum. If Newt loses badly in Georgia, it's probably game over for him. I cannot see Sheldon Adelson continuing to dump more millions down that particular rathole.


    I think Romney wins Mass and Vermont, and gets beaten by Santorum in Ohio.

    Bottom line, if Newt wins Georgia and beats Mitt in states like Tenn. and OK, he stays in. Mitt is in it to the bitter end and I think Santorum (who raised 9 million in the last month) stays in as well.

    The reason that I think Santorum wins Ohio is that it is less Catholic than Michigan. The reason this is significant is that Santorum lost the Catholic vote in Michigan, that vote went to Romney while the religious right (protestant) went to Santorum.
     
  10. Curmudgeon

    Curmudgeon New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2011
    Messages:
    3,517
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Except maybe for the establishment Republicans.... :wtf:
     
  11. Xanadu

    Xanadu New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2011
    Messages:
    1,397
    Likes Received:
    29
    Trophy Points:
    0
    You can also flip the question. Who are the elite's favorite candidates?
    Obama, Romney and Paul.
     
  12. What is free

    What is free New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2011
    Messages:
    450
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Really? Paul?? :dead:

    I'd like to hear which "elites" love him...
     
  13. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2008
    Messages:
    46,674
    Likes Received:
    26,231
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    None. All four will keep running after Super Tuesday.

    Interesting to note that Rick Santorum's days as GOP Flavor of the Month appear to be over. It could be Mittens the Ripper in a big way from Super Tuesday on out...
     
  14. Phoebe Bump

    Phoebe Bump New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    26,347
    Likes Received:
    172
    Trophy Points:
    0
    You just aren't gettin' it, are you?
     
  15. Curmudgeon

    Curmudgeon New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2011
    Messages:
    3,517
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    0
    When I wrote this last night, I had not yet seen these 5 state polls for Super Tuesday. They lend support to my thoughts.

    • Oklahoma: Santorum 28%, Romney 25%, Gingrich 20% and Paul 8%.

      Ohio: Santorum 33%, Romney 27%, Gingrich 12% and Paul 9%.

      Tennessee: Santorum 32%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 16% and Paul 13%.

      Massachusetts: Romney 56%, Santorum 16%, Gingrich 5% and Paul 5%.

      Georgia: Gingrich 32%, Romney 27%, Santorum 17% and Paul 10%.
     
  16. Krypt

    Krypt New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2012
    Messages:
    1,640
    Likes Received:
    40
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Being in Ohio, I can tell that the money game is hurting Santorum right now. I have yet to see one ad on TV from his campaign. Romney and his Pac (Restore Our Future) have been the strongest running ads on TV right now.

    Driving around though, I have only seen a couple Romney signs. I've seen quite a few for Paul.

    I have yet to see any for Gingrich or Santorum...
     
  17. General Fear

    General Fear New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2011
    Messages:
    665
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Who will drop out?

    Santorum will be first. His support is starting to waiver. People like to back a winner. When Santorum stuck his foot in his mouth and lost Michigan, he pretty much put doubt in peoples heads whether Rick is ready for prime time.

    Newt? Well it depends if his Sugar Daddy give him more money to run.

    Paul. He has his sugar daddy too. But Ron Paul and his supporters are on a evangelical quest to convert Americans to the Libertarian philosophy. It stands to reason that staying in the race will give his philosophy free air time. So Ron and company will stay in the race to the end.
     

Share This Page