China plans double-digit boost in military spending

This means they will always have small numbers, with their systems constantly in development, never having an actual production system.

They have been "perfecting" their dstroyers for what, 20+ years now? And still with nothing on the horizon for real production. Once again, no real threat there.

 

The Chinese play a very long game. I have heard it said that it takes two generations to build a Blue Water Navy. The Chinese trajectory is upward. The day will come when they have mastered the techniques, tactics and established the doctrine.

If one wants to defeat them it will be necessary to blindside them. This can be done, but it requires new doctrine, tactics and techniques. By the end of this decade the outcome would be in doubt in the western Pacific if we play by old rules. One must out think the Chinese in order to defeat them.

 

The chinese are already out of time. Their one child policy have seen to this. They are already being overtaken by the Indians.

 

The Chinese may grow old before they grow rich. Time will tell what the impact will be on the growth of Han military power.

I hope you're right about the Indians, but I fear you aren't. Indian military development and acquisition is a complete disaster. Look at the Indian aircraft carrier program.

 

Fine, 2 generations. Come back and talk to me then in another 40 years. And then we can show what the US has in 40 years.

I do not understand why people either place China up on a pedestal, or quiver in fear over them. To me they are about as militarily relevant as France is. Or Malaysia.

They have a military that is entirely geared towards internal control. It is not geared towards outside interventions or actions, and unless the nation is connected to one of their borders, they are not much of a threat.

And you continue to make these claims that they are going to do something "in the future". That is nice, but we are talkinga bout the here and now, not 40 years from now. In 40 years, they may have another revolution and become another or a series of democratic and independent nations. They may have another Tianemen Square incident, and once agian become an International parriah. Or have another internal revolution (like they did under Mao) and once again turn completely inward, closing all their companies and eschewing the outside world all over again.

What can they do this year? Next year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now? Pretty much exactly what they could do last year, 5 years, and 10 years ago. And no matter what you repeat about "long term plans", not a single thing you or they have said or done shows anything different.

So continue along your fantasy plans of a Global Dominating World Fleet of China. I simply do not see it happening, and neither does anybody else but a few alarmists and the Sinophiles.

 

I guess I must have offended you. Sorry. And with that I leave the thread.

 

We can compare them now. Americas military budget is more than most of the world put together and what have they achieved with all that money? They have failed to win a war in Iraq,they had to leave. They have failed to win a war in Afghanistan,they will be leaving soon.

The Chinese on the other hand are not running off around the world starting wars they cannot win. They are in it for the long haul but even that haul is not that long anymore. As the Chinese economy passes the Us economy in about 10 years they will have much more money to spend on their military and they will. At this moment in time they are already upping their military budget and I believe it is even more than they are letting on to the world.

They have one aircraft carrier on the sea and two more are in production and due for service in the next few years. They are making huge advances in unmanned attack craft like the Americans use in Pakistan and they have stealth fighter planes. They also have a missile that can take out aircraft carriers. They are developing a system to bring down satellites.

If America carries on with their endless wars then in 40 years time they will be a backwater with a broken economy and no money so they will not be developing anything to combat the Chinese. The Chinese will take back Taiwan as it is theirs anyway,it was just stolen by an American backed dictator.

So you may seem to think the Chinese are not a threat but they certainly will be soon enough and all the American brass think that already.

 

Don't need an aircraft carrier when your main enemy can be reach by land.

 

Their only aicraft carrier is an old russian rust bucket that has yet to be operational... They also lack any support ship for it worth the name.

Their "stealth" technology is totaly unproven and like many of their project will probably be scrapped.

Their "anti-carrier" missile is also unproven technology.

Man you sure love your propaganda...

 

These topics have been covered before many times, and I invite you to check into them to see what came from them.

Actually, they do not have an "Aircraft Carrier". What they have is the old Soviet era Varyag. Something that not even the Soviets called an Aircraft Carrier. They called this class a "Heavy Aircraft Carrying Cruiser". And even with the modifications made by the Chinese, she will only carry around 15-20 J-15 fighters (a Chinese copy of the Su-33, which will not even see service for another 4 years at best).

So great, they have a single carrier. But no fighters to fly for it for another 4+ years. That is worth absolutely nothing.

To compare, the USS Ronald Reagan normally carries 48 F/A-18 Super Hornets. So they would need at least 2 to carry the same number of aircraft as a single US carrier.

Oh, and they still lack a naval AWACS aircraft. Another gigantic difference that can't be stated enough. Without AWACS or similar early warning and control aircraft, a carrier fighter wing is pretty much blind.

As for that "aircraft killer missile", that is so much nonsense it is barely worth repeating. Nobody is going to use a ballistic missile to shoot at a carrier for several reasons. Not the least of which that any such launch would be immediately detected, and more then likely assumed to be a nuclear missile (there is no way to tell them apart). So the minute it is launched, US forces go to DEFCON-1. And China is not that stupid.

Not to mention the other issues with that missile. Like how are they going to locate the carrier itself, and plot it's location to within 50 meters. How they are going to track it once the missile is launched (the moment such a launch happens, it will go to it's full speed of 30-50 knots and make radical changes in direction). And finally, how are the Chinese going to even hope to steer an incoming ballistic missile traveling at MACH 24+.

No, the DF-21D is only a pipe dream, it does not exist. At the absolute best, the DF-21 series have a CEP of 50-100 meters. Which is about the width of a Nimitz class carrier. So even within it's predicted circle of error, it will most likely miss it's target.

And what would be in the nose of a DF-21D? 600 kg of high explosives. In 1967, the USS Forrestal had over 900 kg of high explosives (as well as Zuni rockets and tons of jet fuel) explode and burn on it's deck. And it remained in service another 26 years.

So lessons 1, 2 and 3. It is almost impossible to hit a moving target with a ballistic missile. Any such launch will immediately be seen as a nuclear missile launch, rising it's nuclear alert status to levels never seen before. And aircraft carriers are incredibly hard to hit, and even harder to kill.

Oh, then you have the rest of the fleet. Something that China does not have yet, and will likely not have for years.

And what is on that support fleet? Why, cruisers and destroyers with the AEGIS missile system. A system designed to shoot down incomming Ballistic Missiles. Included with these are SM-2 and SM-3 missiles, which will all be launched before the DF-21D comes within range, all trying to shoot it down. And the SM-3 is a proven ICBM killer, as well as an anti-satellite weapon.

So lesson 4 and 5. The Chinese totally lack the support vessels (cruisers, destroyers, ASW ships and planes) needed to support their baby carrier. And any missile would have to somehow get through the defensive systems of the US support ships, something that is not very likely.

Next, the "Stealth Fighter". The J-20. Unproven, untested, will not even see operational service for another 5-7 years. Many aviation experts expect it to be more like 10-15 years.

And it is still way behind US and Russian stealth technology. For example, it is not true "stealth", but "directional stealth". Most studies have shown that the J-20 will have head-on stealth, but the tail section is designed as to make it very un-stealthy when seen from the side.

Then you have the issue of stealth itself. Stealth aircraft are not "invisible". Even the US aircraft show up on RADAR. They simply do not have enough of a cross-section to make a missile lock capable. But even with the best US equipment, something still shows up on the RADAR. It may defeat ground and water based air defense missile systems, but it does nothing to stop a pilot from getting enough of a return (with help of AWACS) to be guided to the target, and making a launch visually.

And big whoop-dee-do. They are working on an ASAT system. This is a technology that the US developed 28 years ago (in 1985, an ASM-135 destroyed the satellite P78-1). And that is supposed to impress me in what way exactly?

This is the problem when somebody who does not know or understand military equipment tries to sound authoratative about the subject. You are talking about untested, unfielded and/or unworkable projects, and make them sound like they are real. However, at this time the only thing you have mentioned that is real is the single Aircraft Carrying Missile Cruiser.

A missile cruiser alone actually, since thery do not even have any aircraft for it yet, and will not have any for years.

 

A ship that carries aircraft that can take off and land on it,that is called an aircraft carrier,so they have an aircraft carrier. Are the Chinese feeding you info about their secret military dealings? I thought not so all your 4 years this and 4 years that is just made up. Thanks.

They are building two more carriers so then they will have three aircraft carriers,you know the ones that carry planes that can take off and land on. We call them aircraft carriers. I am sure the Chinese are intelligent enough to get an AWACS system, I mean the American are pretty dumb and they got one.

Ah really? So it is all made up even though it exists,I see. China can go to Defcon 1 as well,what you going to do? You going to lose tens of million of your population or an aircraft carrier? I think your politicians are not really that dumb although they have been in the past.

Don't tell me they have not been in contact with you yet to tell you the answer? Oh well I am sure they will be phoning soon.

You mean America will not be totally broke and will be able to keep up with a Chinese economy that is much much bigger than Americas? I think you are dreaming now.

Like people cannot build ships..

It has been tested,sorry but now you are just making stuff up,oh I forgot that is what you have been doing all the way through this piece.

You have a pretty poor opinion of the Chinese. America is going to be broke soon,well it is actually broke now thinking about it and you expect it to keep a head of China which will overtake the US economy in about 10 years and have more money to spend on their military. I think you are confused to say the least of what the future holds.

 

No, that is not nessicarily true.

During WWII, we had "Escort Carriers". We also had "Ferry Carriers". These carried airplanes also, but were not considered "Aircraft Carriers".

We also to this day have various other ships that carry aircraft. The old LPH class Amphibious Warfare ships (the old USS Iwo Jima) also had flight decks, and could carry a small amount of Harriers. These were not considered "Aircraft Carriers" either.

The newest USS Iwo Jima (an LHD class ship) also has a flight deck, and can carry Harriers, but it is not an "aircraft carrier" either.

If you went up to any Sailor and tried to insist any of these ships was an Aircraft Carrier, they would laugh in your face. Just because it has a flight deck and carries aircraft, that does not make it an Aircraft Carrier.

Yea, 2 more copies of the one they already have. Not expected to see the water for a decade at least. So in 15 years or so, we might have enough Chinese carriers to make a moderate threat to a single US carrier.

Oh, China does have AWACS. The J-200 and J-2000. Neither one of which is capable of operating off of of naval vessels.

They also have a few Russian made Ka-31 AWAC helicopters. I should not even have to discuss the deficiencies with trying to use a helicopter based AWACS system.

China only has a handfull of missiles that can reach the US. Compared to what the US has that can reach China, any started nuclear war will end very badly for China.

There is a (*)(*)(*)(*)ed good reason why nuclear nations no longer use any kind of long range ballistic missile with conventional warheads. The fear of somebody panicking and pulling the trigger is simply to great. The military sees that, to bad others do not.

No need to. Ballistic missiles are ballistic missiles. The CEP of the DF-21 series is well known, as is the size of a US aircraft carrier. Lay one on top of the other, and it should be obvious.

As far as the rest, once again it is obvious. Flight time would be around 5-10 minutes. The US would know about the launch within seconds, and immediately tell the carrier to change speed and direction. And you simply can't "steer" an unpowered object falling on a ballistic trajectory traveling at MACH 24+. You tell a control surface to change a few milimeters, and suddenly the missile if flying miles away from it's last trajectory.

This has nothing to do with their military capabilities.

Sure they can. However, China has yet to build a sufficient number of cruisers and destroyers to protect even their one ship, let alone any others they want to build.

Sorry, not made up at all. Nice try though.

Now where on earth did you ever come up with that conclusion?

Why is it that every time I state that the equipment that some members of the Chinese politicians claim to have is not as good as they say it is, they suddenly jump to the conclusion that I think their military is garbage?

The two things have absolutely nothing to do with each other.

You will absolutely never hear me say that I have a poor opinion of the Chinese military, or that I think their equipment is junk. If you had asked me a similar question 25 years ago about the Soviets, it would have been a similar response. Their military is among the best in the world, but a lot of their equipment is not that great.

My biggest derision of the Chinese Military Capability comes to systems that they praise to the sun and the moon and stars years before it is even tested. This to me is the ultimate in arrogance, and also traditionally these systems that China praises never live up to the promises they make. Missile systems, submarines, destroyers, aircraft, tanks, artillery, this is repeated over and over again by China.

They claim that that the newest item is going to be the best in the world. They make a prototype, make some changes, make another prototype, make more changes, and this goes on and on and on and on. Constant prototypes, constant revisions, rarely ever a finished product.

It is not the military I question at all, it is this fancy equipment that their politicians and political generals claim is comming, that never seems to ever see the light of day.

Just look at the DF-21 itself. Announced as the ballistic missile of the future, scrapped before being deployed. The DF-21A comes out, shorter range and lighter payload then the original DF-21. Few made, all apparently withdrawn from service. The DF-21C, only deployed in the last few years. This is the first of this series to actually be deployed into combat units, 20 years behind the original schedule of the original DF-21.

Now the DF-21D, announced 7 years ago. Supposed to rely on a satellite system that is not expected to be launched for another 5 years. Also dependent on a future "pinpoint accurate over the horizon RADAR system", that is not expected to see the light of day for 5-8 years (if then, many question if a over the horizon system would give enough resolution to give the needed accuracy to a ballistic missile).

All based upon a ballistic missile that has never been tested in that capability. Combine all of these, with the claims of "steerable ballistic missiles", pinpointing a moving aircraft carrier inside of a protective group, the missile defense systems, and the like, and you basically have yet another piece of Chinese Vaporware.

And my predictions of their equipment delivery is not just something I made up. That is from both the dates that China expect to see them put into service (the date I give), then the "+" because traditionally China has lagged long behind being able to actually field any heavy equipment that they promise to deliver.

For an example, just look at the their future Commercial Airliner, the Comac ARJ21.

They bought a complete set of blueprints from McDonnel-Douglas for the MD-80 back in 2002. At that time, they announced that the ARF21 was on a "5 year plan", and would be fully operational by 2007.

Well, 2007 came and went, nothing. Then they announced they would be in production by 2010. 2010 came and went, nothing. Now they are saying that they will be in production by 2015.

I am not holding my breath for them to make that date either. And of course, they are not even making the entire airplane. The engines are made by GE, an American company. The aircraft itself is a blend of McDonnell airframe and Antonov avionics.

So as you can see, they have problems even making a copy of an aircraft fit within their time frame. And this is the norm for all of their aircraft. So why should these be any different?

But no comment on their "Stealth Aircraft"? Nothing about how the AEGIS missile systems will not work?

 

Yes it is true and this is not WW2,this is the 21st century and they are aircraft carriers,even the Chinese state that,so that is the end of your argument right there.

How do you know they are copies? You do not as no one has seen their design only the Chinese and that is the end of your argument there. You are not privy to Chinese military secrets.

Good for them.

You do not know what missiles China has got.OK You are not privy to Chinese military secrets and never will be.

Ok so you admit that they do not tell you anything.

How would flight time take 5-10 minutes at MACH 24 to hit a US carrier off the coast of China? I think you need to check your stopwatch there.

I think you will find it actually does have something to do with their military capabilities,as if they have no money and are broke they cannot afford to update their military equipment. I see you do not want to spend a lot of time on this area as it brings your case to a shuddering halt. America is broke now and if it keeps on spending for military purposes then in the future it will be a backwater. The Chinese on the other hand have plenty of money to spend and will have more in the future,they will out strip the US military some time and you thinking they will not is just wishful.

They are coming a long nicely and having the money to spend sure helps,they do not have to go into more debt like the USA to upgrade their military

Yes you did make it up as that plane has been tested,it was on all the news channels,maybe you should tune out of the American news and try something international where they actually report the news.

Must have been by reading your posts that constantly put down the Chinese military,yep that is where I came up with that conclusion

I already commented on their stealth aircraft,thanks. Maybe you should try reading it instead of saying there has been no comment.

These are the facts. America is broke and if it continues on its path then it will end up as just another dead empire. China has money and will have more in the future and its military will surpass that of the US even if the US kills its self trying to keep a head as you cannot have all that with no money. Your bit before about what could happen in China says it all about your opinions as you did not include what could happen in America. You think they might have civil war etc in China but not a word on America as you believe that nothing is going to change there and that somehow everything will be fine and just flow on like before. With that attitude I can see that you are not dealing in reality. America is broken and I am sure it is not going to get fixed. All empires die a death and America is no different and will not be the exception.

 

its no where near mach 24, like around mach10 or a bit more. you can steer a hypersonic missile if its trajectory is near its target within certain radius. hence initial course plot, mid course correction etc.

there is no need for 8 DDG, 8 FFG, and 8 subs to protect one ship. normal operation of CVBG only need 2-4DDG, 2-4FFG, 2-3subs. china has at least that many ships


china overall military capability still lag far behind US. it has system that is near US military, j10,52c, but still lack in number compare to US. but they don't plan to build dozen ships/year anyway. although rumor of 8th 52c is been build somewhere in china.

anyway china currently has the capability to defend itself, but not enough capability to venture further than 1st island chain.

however we shouldn't compare military vs military but rather economic condition between the two. i doubt we will have a war with china anytime soon. so the economy is the most important thing for any country, $$$ talk. we are currently bury ourself in debt, value of dollar continue drop every year.

 

Americans seem to fear china, in their continued negative/hostile view of the chinese nation.

Although what the chinese have or have not got, is all speculation. And since they are becoming the biggest economy on earth, they can afford to build whatever they like.

Although on this forum, it is still amusing to read the forum members who believe they have a intimate knoweldge to bejing. Which consist of google photos and half assed 'usa intelligence'

 

Actually, China can be useful to the American right against the American left. The Chinese are changing the world and undercutting the basis for the American welfare state. No pain, no gain.

 

No matter what the chinese do, the american right will never allow the usa left access to universal health care. They shoot them first, with all the investment into the guns and armed forces.

 

Good gawd! I like the way you think. And here's a rep coming your way.

 

Thank you.

I rarely give rep points. it is like giving money to a begger. He only waste it on booze.

 

I give reps all the time. They cost nothing and they build goodwill.

Any way, the Chinese and I are going to kick American leftist ass. Neither of us have any use for them.

 

OK, lesson #1 in how Ballistic Missiles operate.

These are missile sthat follow a ballistic trajectory. In other words, they go almost straight up, really-really high. Then when all of their fuel is used up, they use gravity to help them turn 180 degrees, then fall downwards in a ballistic trajectory.

Because of gravity and free-frall, they descend at a much faster velocity then they ever went up at. This is what is known as a "Ballistic Trajectory". We are not talking about an Air Breathing missile like a Cruise Missile, that operates pretty much like an aircraft and follows the surface of the Earth.

Most of the time for a Ballistic Missile is in the ascent phase, when it is going up. Then you have the apogee phase, where it is essentially coasting to the point where it will start it's downward trajectory. These 2 phases are what takes all the time. The actual descent phase is over within a minute or two.

And yes, I know about missiles. Trust me, I know more about them then anybody else on this site. I am even frequently asked to join in other topics here because of my knowledge. Want to know about the DF-21 series? How about the Taepodong-2 of North Korea? How about the Shahab-3 of Iran and the SCARAB missiles of Syria?

Feel free to ask any questions you may have about things like this. You see, this is what I do for a living. I study all the missiles I can of all the countries I can get access too, and use that to help expand my knowledge in how to shoot them down.

And your claims of my not knowing what China does is basic nonsense. China does not have all that many secrets like this, they scream them out themselves to the world. This is because they are one of the largest arms dealers in the world. So their constant propaganda about their current and future weapons systems is part of their advertising. They are even trying to get other nations (like India) interested in buying their Su-33 clone. And they are saying the same things to them too.

Expect deliveries in 7-10 years, once they finish development, and have enough made for their own uses.

Once again, this is false. The J-20 has not been tested. It is being tested. As of this moment, they have exactly 2 prototypes. That is it. 2.

As of this time, they have made from 3-5 test flights of one of the prototypes, none over 1 hour. They expect the test flight phase alone will be continuing for another 3-5 years.

That is not "tested", that is "testing".

But I have never said anything of the sort. I would love to have you show me a quote where I said the Chinese military is bad. Go ahead, show me or stop making things up.

 

No, that is the terminal velocity of a SRBM. The SCUD series for example has a terminal velocity of around MACH 10. The DF-21 is an IRBM/LRBM. It travels up much farther, and has a much greater descent phase as well.

Basically, the only real difference between the IRBM/LRBM and ICBM is the amount of fuel capacity, which allows the ICBMs to stay at apogee much longer, to allow them to travel greater distances. But they all hit about the same velocity in the descent phase.

With is around MACH 24, give or take a few up or down for things like shape and size of the payload package.

And this is not a missile we are talking about here. A "Hypersonic Missile" is essentially a souped up cruise missile. This is a constant boost missile, that operates like a conventional aircraft. It has an up and down, control surfaces, and adjustable throttle. If it looks like it is going to overshoot it's target, it can slow down. If it looks like it will fall short it can speed up. And it will be approaching it's target from the side, so as long as it is lined up on the side of the target, distance does not matter, just altitude. As long as it is not to high, it will hit it's target, no matter if it is 100 meters short or long of where it expects to find it.

The DF-21 series is a ballistic missile. It is launched almost straight up, burns up all of it's fuel while it is correcting it's flight for where it will land, uses up it's fuel and coasts until it either starts it's descent phase automatically through the pull of gravity, or gets a small kick down by a smaller rocket motor that is designed to do just this. Then it is all free-fall until it reaches it's target.

And because it is falling down, it has to be incredibly precise. If it is off by 100 meters in any direction, it missed it's target completely. It can't speed up or slow down, it is entirely at the mercy of gravity. And at it's incredible speeds, even the smallest attempt at "course correction" will take it a long ways off.

So trying to compare a "Hypersonic Missile" to a "Ballistic Missile" is not even like comparing Apples and Oranges. It is like comparing Apples and Parsley Leaves. Or Helicopters and Long Range Heavy Bombers. They operate so differently you can't really compare them.

"Mid-course correction" is a misnomer actually. This is another name for the small kick that starts most of the modern ones on their downward phase. They are already traveling at an enormous velocity, and even the smallest "correction" means a great distance between the kick down and impact location. And once that downward trajectory starts, it is pretty much entirely on it's own. Then it is all gravity and geometry that take it to it's target.

This is why Ballistic Missiles are really not used by most nations. They are good as either area terror weapons (WWII Germany, former Iraq, Hezbolah), armed with conventional payloads where the actual impact is not important, anywhere within a very large area is acceptable.

Or they are used by other nations (US, Russia, China) as carriers for thermonuclear weapons. Then the actual impact location is not at all important. As long as you get within a mile of the target, it is toast.

Imagine trying to shoot a bullet almost straight up into the air, and expect it to land on a football field. With the right data and some trigonometry, you can do that with the right equipment.

Now imagine doing the same thing, but having to hit a moving car. OK, can still do that, just add in the velocity and direction of the car.

Now for the impossible part. You are hitting a moving car, that as soon as the driver hears the shot will start to make random changes in speed and direction.

This shows the complexity of what China claims they can do with the DF-21D. Not only does the missile have to work perfectly, it has to find a way to pinpoint the exact location of the Carrier. And I mean exact, down to within 10 yards. And it has to continue tracking it, through every change of direction and speed it makes. Where are they going to get that information from?

And then there are the defense ships, which are then going to be shooting missiles at the falling missile. Missiles that are designed to destroy incomming ballistic missiles.

And of course the moment the launch is detected by US systems (within seconds), the entire military (including the nuclear missile systems) are going to go on high alert. Because all they know is a missile launch. They can't tell what kind of payload is inside the missile.

China talks about all kinds of fancy systems that will make this work. Satellites to feed mid-course corrections. With a lag and every ECM jammer the fleet possesses going to full power trying to jam any such signals. And an over the horizon radar system, which has nowhere near the resolution to pinpoint the location of such a ship close enough to give the kind of data needed to hit it.

Now if they were talking about a conventional cruise missile type of system for this task, I would be much more worried. We have already seen what they can do with their Silkworm missiles. And even for their age, that is a pretty good system. If they were talking about flooding an area with conventional missiles, i would be worried. If they were talking about building subs with a great number of fast running cruisr type missiles, I would be worried.

But a ballistic missile with a conventional warhead? Trying to hit a randomly moving target? This is almost to funny to seriously consider.

 

I don't think the DF-21 is truly operational at this point in time. The problem is that I might be wrong. In order to cover that possibility our navy has to move the scale towards force protection instead of being fully on offense. That's the cautious approach.

We need to develop weapons like unmanned aircraft operating off of smaller more numerous carriers outside the range of the DF-21. Or develop weapons like Prompt Global Strike. We can play this game as well as the Chinese if that is our objective and if we have the money to do so.

I have read of a new approach using drones employing the mobbing tactics of birds against raptors. So many drones that the Han could be overwhelmed. Blindside them. Sucker punch them.

 

I do not fear them at all. I have a pretty good idea of what they have, and their capabilities.

I recognize that they have a very large and powerfull military. It is also well trained and highly disciplined.

However, it also lacks the kind of "legs" needed to be a threat to anybody but their nearest neighbors. They lack the kind of "blue water navy" and airlift capacity to be a threat to nations that do not directly connect to their borders.

However, if they seriously decided to attack one of their border neighbors, there is little that could be done to stop them. They have the manpower and equipment needed to roll over probably 2 or 3 of their neighbors at once if they so decided.

And no, what China has and does not have is not speculation. This is where the way they operate and the US is very different.

Traditionally, the US keeps it's most confidential weapons systems a tight secret until they are ready to go operational. They did not even aknowledge the existance of the F-117 and B-2 until they were fully completed, tested, and enough of them built to become operational. The PATRIOT missile system was designed in 1965, initially tested in 1967, field tested in 1969, and it was not announced until 1978 when the first provisional units were assembled. And 3 years later it was fielded.

China tends to make big announcements of it's systems when they are still on the drawing boards. This is because they have plans on selling these systems. When you have a nation trying to consider buying a new jet fighter from the UK, Russia and the US, and then China announces that they will have within 7-10 years a stealthy fighter for around the same cost, a lot of countries are going to now consider holding off on that major purchase, and wait to see what the Chinese model will be like.

This is simply good business. After all, none of the other countries are going to consider selling Stealth fighters to Pakistan, India or Malaysia. But if China would do so, They may very well hold off on replacing their older F-14 and MiG-25 with F/A-18 and Su-33 fighters, and wait a few more years to see what comes of the newest Chinese project.

People go on and on in here about how secretive China is. However, when it comes to their arms industry, they are anything but secretive. Every tank, airplane, submarine, destroyer, missile and helicopter has been bragged about for years before it makes an appearance. Because they give the hype and media coverage of it's development as a way to try and get buyers.

Pretty much anything they make, have made, or will make is available to the highest bidder. Want a submarine or destroyer for your fleet? China will sell you one. Want a Type 88 tank? China will sell them to you. Every one of their "newest and greatest systems to come" is available for sale. And to anybody that has the cash to pay for them.

Compare this to the US F-22 and Russian Sukhoi PAK FA. These will only be available to the country producing them (F-22), or to a very select list of countries that Russia has worked with for years (Sukhoi PAK FA).

But not so the J-20. Anybody with the pocketbook is welcome to get one. And at a price they claim will be 20-50% less then what the US and Russia are willing to sell.

So of course they are going to be open about them, that means potential sales down the line.

 

Well, the DF-21C is fully operational. That is simply a conventional Ballistic Missile, armed with a nuclear warhead. These have been operational for some years.

The DF-21D however is simply a pipe dream. They claim it is operational, but have never even done an actual test of the system. So it is operational on paper only. Not even they know how well it will work in a real live situation.