I predict a 300-400 point stock market jump when mandate is struck down Thursday.

Conversely, I predict a 100-200 point drop if it is upheld.

Once the gigantic cluster(*)(*)(*)(*) known as Obamacare is neutered, I believe businesses everywhere, especially in the health care industry, will breathe a huge sigh of relief. Obamacare was predicated on lies ("if you like your plan, you can keep your plan", "The cost curve will bend downwards over time", etc), and has been a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the heads of employers, who are hesitant to hire and expand because they do not know what their employees will cost them in the near future. Removing the mandate will castrate this horrible piece of legislation until a non-Marxist Administration can come in and clean up the rest.

I will bump this thread once the decision comes down, no matter what the outcome. Anyone willing to throw out a prediction of their own is welcome.

 

I started a "dead pool" thread for predictions on how far the stock market would plunge after the credit rating downgrade...I was about 300 points off...(predicted a bigger dive)

I'll take the (slight) "under" on your predictions...but I expect it'll spike substantially on confirmation of Obamacare's unconstitutionality

 

I suspect you're right. Thing is, if the mandate is found unconstitutional but the rest of it isn't ... which might actually be a decent plan ... what happens then?

 

Funding it becomes a hotly debatable "third rail" issue every federal budget cycle....
or, more "right wing obstructionism" and "hostage taking" for class warfare/victim pimping collectivists to whine about

 

Without the mandate how do you fund such a plan? Any half measure leads to disaster, although that might not matter to the initial market changes, as those are always knee-jerk responses.

 

I heard a prediction that the markets would climb if/when it becomes 'clear' Romney can beat Obama. Folks are looking for a sign things are gonna get better and we sure haven't seen that with Gloom & Doom Barry in the WH.

Be interesting if that happens. Would Barack get the benefit of the bump caused by the realization he's gonna lose?

 

remember folks....social security is a government mandate.

Don't hold your breath.

 

Interesting.

The individual mandate is only in the HCR because it was the gimmee to insurance companies as well as being a "conservative" endeavor. It was first proposed by the Heritage Foundation and supported by Republicans, including the first Bush and, yes, Mitt Romney. Republicans introduced bills containing an individual mandate TWICE in 1993.

The Democrats wanted and still want a single-payer system. Many are actually hoping that the mandate is tossed out because that might accelerate the move towards single-payer. The mandate being struck down would be considered by many on the left to be advantageous. There is a possibility that the entire HCR could be struck down. This would result in a fair amount of chaos and political finger-pointing. Millions would be dropped and several components that people have grown to love would become inactive.

So you're thinking that the mandate being struck down, which greatly affects insurance companies, will cause the market to bounce 300-400 points?

Why exactly? How exactly do companies profit from the mandate being struck down? What companies in particular would profit from the mandate being struck down?

What affect will it have on insurance companies and their investments in the stock market? Note that insurance companies also make money investing their reserves.

I think it's a tossup. The SCOTUS judgement today concerning the Arizona Anti-Brown Skin laws could actually hold a sliver of how the Court is going to rule. They tossed out 3/4 of the law and left the part that hasn't been implemented.

So don't be surprised if SCOTUS leaves the mandate simply because it hasn't been implemented yet.

 

While I would like to share your optimism, Obamacare isn't the only thing on the mind of the market. Investors are also waiting on pins and needles for the results of a summit in Europe and Spain has now officially requested a Eurozone bailout and is soon to be downgraded. The markets are a funny thing (I trade it on a near daily basis). It often reacts counterintuitively. Many people are predicting a drop in the DOW because all the medical insurance companies are invested in Obamacare being retained, and they represent a huge chunk of the market.

So if you're thinking of a strike-down winfall, better hold on to your money.

 

I am more of a long-term investor. I hold three stocks, Exxon Mobil, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Ford. Exxon Mobil usually maintains stability. Bristol Myers Squibb remains strong, despite lags in FDA approval for the drug Eliquis and the buy back of shares. Ford over the long-run will only go up. The company has more European market exposure than General Motors, a major problem, yet as an investor in the buy and hold phase, I expect my share value to remain afloat.

My guess is that if the health care legislation is ruled unconstitutional, superfluous regulations hindering pharmaceutical patent acquisition will be gone, allowing Bristol Myers Squibb and other pharmaceutical companies to increase revenue.

 

Well, we'd still be more than 6000 points higher than when Georgey's reign of terror ended.

 

Markets already dropping like a rock.

It's going to be a bloody day on Wall Street. Thanks Obama!

 

Thank Obama? Thank Bush and the neocons. Roberts was YOUR pick. Want me to pull up Malkin and Coulter's praise of him?

 

Right wing clowns rule okay? I don't think so.

 

I have to admit, Justice Robert's deception was well played. He came across as a very strict constructionist who would resist any further overreaches by the courts. He's fooled a lot of people. I can imagine even George W. Bush in his Crawford Texas home is looking at the TV saying, "WTF, Roberts? You jackass!"

 

DJIA was already down 80 points by 10am. It fell about 70 points after the ruling, but has already started to climb, as it is up 25 points since 11am.
S&P500 dropped 7 points between 10 and 11, and has been climbing pretty fast for the past half hour.
NASDAQ dropped 25 points between 10 and 11, and has gone up 7 points in the past half hour, at a fairly steady rate.

You checked right when they had bottomed out. Things like that happen with the markets. Better to check what happens at the end of the day, and what happens over the next month.

1 hour snapshots are fairly meaningless on the market.

 

Crony/favoratist capitalism is corporatism, and that's exactly what Obama is-a corporatist. If he were a socialist then he'd be a naive supporter of an inefficient economic system but he'd at least not force people to buy into..anything.

 

Please do not bring facts to a debate here at PF. Thanks.

 

Dow was down 100 points on Europe before the Supremes' decision was released.

It closed the day down 25, about 75 point higher than when the decision was released.

No bloodbath. No 100-200 point drop.

Chaulk up yet another wrong conservative economic prediction.

Obviously, investors who put their money where their mouths are don't share the conservatives' apolyistic view of the effect of Obamacare on the economy.

 

Perhaps not, but they do wisely realize that inflation is a huge deterrance to investment. And savings. And prosperity.

 

They may realize lots of things about lots of things. The issue in this thread was the effect of the Obamacare decision.

 

As far as I know..I'm gonna be forced to somehow pay for Obamacare, which is crony capitalism as it's most evil. Congratulations????

 

So sorry to hear that.