Donald Trump may be the greatest gift the Democratic Party has ever received....

So, in a 95-minute rant yesterday in Iowa and also in an interview before, Trump went full-metal jackass in just so many ways:

-He called Carson "pathological", brought "child molester" into the same sentence in order to try to taint Carson this way.

-He is still hot about the "Operation Wetback" thing, apparently, totally oblivious to the fact that "wetback" is a very racis/bigoted term.

-Still calling them "anchor babies".

-Said that Rubio only supports immigration reform because he's a Latino. Allrighty, then!!! This is just outstanding Latino voter outreach!!

-Asks how "stupid" the people of Iowa are.... because in most polling from Iowa, Carson is leading him, not that that makes much of a difference. The Caucuses in Iowa are proportional. Santorum won here in 2012, but Paul (Ron Paul), who placed THIRD, walked away with more delegates...

Lordy, lordy, lordy, it's just one Trumpian Neutron Bomb after another with the Master of disconcerting toupees....

Now, if anyone doubts the veracity of this 95 minute Trumpublican meltdown, here is the complete video:

[video=youtube;apaToLjdRp4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apaToLjdRp4[/video]

The speech was in Fort Dodge, Iowa, and that fact is kind of important.

Fort Dodge is the County seat of Webster County, which went for Obama by +5.84% over Romney in 2012, almost identical to his statewide margin of +5.81%. So, Webster County is somewhat of a bellwether for the state and it is no surprise to me that Trump is stumping here. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by +8.51% in Webster County and won the state overall by +9.54. The county was NOT a bellwether in 2004: Bush won the state by +0.63%, but Kerry won Webster County by +3.24%.

In the 2012 Iowa caucuses, Santorum just edged out Romney by +2.05% (26.58% to 24.53%) in Webster County and was the winner of the state overall. In 2008, Huckabee, who won the state in the Caucuses, also won this County by a comparable margin (larger, but comparable). So, in some ways, Webster County is a bellwether both in national presidential politics and also in the GOP nomination process. And not just in the GOP nomination process: in 2008, Obama beat Edwards by +3.6% and he beat Edwards in Webster County by +3%. In 2004, Kerry won the caucuses by 4 points over Edwards and also beat Edwards in this County by 1 point. So, it's just a really good bellwether. As this county goes, so goes the state. So, as I wrote, it's no surprise to me that Trump is trumpublicating here.

So, whatever your views on Trump, it is now obvious to even the most diehard of Trumpinistas that he is constantly breaking Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment. And the big question is: if he does get the GOP nomination, how much of a hayday will the Clinton team have with all the malarky he says?

I wrote this thread so that we can discuss that question.

Please discuss this malarky.

Thanks!

 

That is the new mantra of the day, from media, in that R's could lose some Senate and House seats, even he were to win the 2016 P Elections. The problem is in that assumption, as his support is coming from a mix of R/D's and then a majority calling themselves Independents. I think the so called "coat tails", will increase the R majority and grow, if Trump follows through on half his comments.

 

Hillary is the worst gift the democrats have ever received.

 

To be brutally honest there is not a whole lot of difference between the "rump" in Trump and the "ars(e)" in Carson when it comes to actual substance.

Both of them are spouting gibberish and would be disasters if they were to end up in the oval office.

Kasich is the best the GOP has to offer and Rubio is a distant second.

Getting back to the OP it is interesting to note how T-Rump is an equal opportunity offender. He is even calling the republicans in Iowa stupid because they are voting for someone else. How is that supposed to get them to come out and vote in the GE if he were to win the nomination after he has insulted them?

 

I think the only reason Marco Rubio is even in the Senate is because the GOP wanted to knock off Charlie Christ, and Rubio could get the Cuban vote. The guy is a lightweight.

As for Trump and Carson, you nailed it.

Trump is doing his Lonesome Rhodes act now. It won't be too much longer.

 

IT'S Great, because Donald Trump is doing all of Hillary's work for her by exposing all these GOP candidates for what they are, Hypocritical Lying Monsters. Thank goodness the Democrats created their Manchurian Candidate Donald Trump years ago to create Khaos in the Republican party, he's the PERFECT! MOLE. In 2016 whether is The Donald or Hillary that's voted President, it'll be a Democrat in the White House

 

Many Democrats are hoping that Trump becomes the GOP Nominee because it would be a landslide vote for Hillary.

 

Even his supporters in the rally started getting uneasy when he went on his rant. I don't know how anyone could support him after that. The gutter level has just reached a new low and the real race hasn't even started yet.

 

Well, I have to admit watching Trump and Carson has been enlightening and entertaining. This is only my opinion - if Jeb Bush isn't the GOP candidate, the Democrats will get the White House once again, almost by default. Again, my opinion only - only Bush has a ghost of a chance vs. the Democrat nominee.

 

I used to think that, but I am not so sure anymore. There are just enough "way out there" people in the GOP that I am beginning to think that Trump could urinate in public and still get the nomination. And that's probably why the GOP upper ups are starting to get very, very nervous.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, please, do tell us more.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, it's a free country, you can do anything you want. I support your right to do that. And on your way, you could fix the quote function...

 

Well, considering that Trump is a lifelong democrat, I'm not surprised. He didn't start pretending to be a Republican until his friend Hillary lost the Democratic primary in 2008.

 

You know nothing about Florida politics. Rubio was the choice of the Republican people, the GOP establishment wanted Crist, until it was clear he had no chance. Rubio is the only politician I can remember who won an election without negative ads (at least in my part of Florida). His opponents Meek and Crist were throwing out negative ads left and right. Rubio stuck to a positive message of why he was the best, not why they were the worst.

Trump's a lifelong liberal democrat. As I've said before, he didn't start pretending to be Republican until his gal Hillary lost the Democratic primary to Obama in 2008.

 

Take a look at the Quinnipiac which breaks it down to exactly what you are talking about.

Hillary is leading Trump 46-43 among all voters
Republican voters go to Trump 81-8
Democratic voters go to Hillary 91-5 - Trump isn't exactly drawing many Democrats. Hillary in fact is getting more Republican's to vote for her than Trump is getting democrats.
Trump is narrowly taking the independent vote 43-38
Trump wins men 52-36
Clinton wins women 55-35
Trump wins the white vote 51-38
Clinton wins the black vote 91-6

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us11042015_xsq33a.pdf

If the election were held today, the Republicans would lose 5 senate seats and control of the senate to the Democrats and the GOP would lose 12 house seats while retaining control.

For the complete run down go here.

http://www.politicalforum.com/entry.php?b=1525

 

Even against Hillary and all her baggage, it does seem Trump is one she would defeat easily. Not so against most others like Carson, Fiorina, Rubio. but it is still early and change is constant. If the election was today, Hillary would beat Trump worst than Obama beat McCain.

I think all of this boils down to my question I asked many times. Do the Republicans want to win the White House or do they just want to make a statement?

 

If Trump is the republican nominee, during the presidential debatesand if Hillary is the democrat nominee, Trump will destroy Hillary. She has had too many lies, scandals, and corruption.

 

I remember dems being giddy when Reagan was nominated....then he won the presidency. What libs do not realize is that their actions for the past 7 years or so have setup the next long rule of republicans. Not RINOs either. History repeats and is about to repeat again.

 

But considering the Republican alternatives, she will still win the presidency.

 

I'll agree public polling would indicate Trump isn't the favorite, adding that same public polling five months ago, had him dropping out by the day. My favorite poll has always been the elections themselves.

I sincerely feel, a person outside the so called "establishment party's", is not concerned with being re elected, is not concerned with public perception, knows people outside the government to draw advisors from, is what's really needed today for a host of reasons.

 

You may be correct about an outsider, but I sincerely doubt Trump is the one. His persona and constantly being on the attack grates on most people. Not his supporters because that is what they like about him. Disregarding the horse race polls, but looking at other indicators such as favorability, truthfulness, is for people like me, experience etc. Trump comes out on the losing end of all of them. Only Trump and Clinton are dislike by close to 60% of all Americans, both are seen as not being honest and truthful. Clinton comes out on top in the category that the candidate is for people like me and holds the same values as me. Experience Clinton is way ahead.

The thing to remember is when a voter does not like a candidate, they usually do not vote for him and the rest of those indicators just reinforces the dislike. Of course we still have a year to go before the election and if nominated Trump could work on some of the above. How successful is unknown, but first impressions are important and usually sticks.

The question is if the election boils down to Trump and Clinton, who does those voters who dislike both vote for? I am sure some will just stay home, some may vote third party, some will vote for the lesser of two evils or the least worst candidate as they see it.

Now as for an outsider, Carson in the above categories is running circles around Trump. Still, we do not know if that will last. But I would go back to first impressions. Hillary and the democrats know that too. Here lately they are attacking Carson, not Trump. They think they have much more to fear from Carson than Trump. Carson is seen my the majority of Americans as honest and truthful, he has very high favorability ratings among all voters and very low unfavorable ratings. But like Trump, he is lacking in the experience field where Clinton has the advantage. Carson is also seen as caring for people like us.

Can Carson survive all the attacks from democrats and from Trump within his own party, that remains to be seen. Trump is getting supporters of the other candidates angry at him for all his negative personal attacks, again this is what his supporters like about him. But if he does get the nomination, those angry supporters of other candidates may just stay home during the general. This happened in 2012 to the turn of 2 million, those angry at Romney, the Gingrich, Santorum, Paul and other supporter just stayed home and that is a conservative estimate.

Just keep in mind, because of the smaller base vote the Republican candidate must win 54-55% of the independent vote in order to win the White House. Trump is nowhere near that, Carson, Rubio and a couple of others are. But a year is a long time, things change and unforeseen events happen. Just look at Paris last night. But studying the intangibles, if Trump is nominated you better hope that Hillary is indicted as the unforeseen event. At the moment I do not give him much of a chance to beat here regardless of the horse race polls. then there is the electoral college which is a whole new ballgame.

 

1- If you see Clinton "way ahead", then your telling me, we are in serious trouble. IMO, the news of today (Paris) is primarily based on her past referrals or decisions, then either agreeing with her boss at the time or her boss accepting her understandings. I will hold out hopes, the FBI's reputation for being bipartisan holds true and she will not finish the primaries. I don't see a viable replacement, certainly not one that could beat out a few of the R's, Trump the best equipped.

2- Voter's that do not vote, don't because neither meets their standards or are seen as equals. IMO, Romney lost primarily because he is Mormon and Obama told his base "Osama is dead and Al Quaeda is on the run" reelect me, of course the lies of this century. McCain lost, because Obama, was the first viable Black, that had run and promised the moon for half the voters.

3- Could be, but keep in mind Trump has little political history and most people understand why business people, act as they do. Clinton has a 30+ year history, even if her main base was not yet born. Trying to stay honest, Trump has at least been on TV, doing his thing for a good many years.

4- I'm going to stay PC on Carson. He certainly has had an honorable story book life and deserves much credit, oop's may not be PC, but I'll add, with emphasis on being Black. I'd suggest, visualizing Carson and Putin, in an argument over anything, Vodka or Tea or some real issue, is not exactly something worth my vote.

5- I agree on the EC, but feel sure, those concerned have it figured out for their candidate. I think "winner takes all" in Florida and last I heard Trump was beating the combination of Bush and Rubio, which could be telling....

 

1. Depends, looking at the head to head matchups, there are a couple of potential GOP nominees that beat her. Not Trump though.

2. Romney lost because he ran an inept campaign which he thought that not being Obama was enough for him to win. Romney lost because he angered a lost of supporters from other candidates with his personal negative attacks against them. Florida is a prime example of how Gingrich supporters stayed home and Romney lost that state by 0.88%, less than one percent of a single point. Trump is following in Romney's footsteps by angering his opponents supporters with his personal negative attacks. he should stick with policy differences.

3 True, Trump is a TV personality. He is a businessman. No one can deny that.

4 I don't know if you are underselling Carson or not. Being quiet or not bombastic may be a good thing. I found as a drill sergeant many moons ago, while other drill sergeants hollered and raised a fuss to get their point across or to train the troops, I would call an offending troops over to me and in a very low voice give him a going over. That troop and others like him soon were giving it all they had. Now that didn't work with every young trainee, some need the old hollering routine and perhaps smashing a trash can lid on the floor. But most don't. Who do you think would be more likely to succeed, a Trump red in the face hollering like the dickens at Putin or a soft spoken Carson just leaning over and in a low voice whispering in Putin's ear, "I wouldn't do that." but to each his own.

4 Here's Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

Take a close look at all three polls. 22-19-15 Trump-Carson-Rubio on 10-13, 37-17-16 on 11-1 and the latest one 23-22-18 Trump-Carson-Rubio. on 11-11. My favorite day, Veterans day.

 

Provided she isn't in jail first !

 

it would be fine if a well-funded independent candidate emerged.if the republicans can't or won't get their act together they will never be a player in presidential politics.how sad.