Presidential campaigns IN-and-OUT update on the Cusp of 2016

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Dec 31, 2015.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    8 of the 23 candidates who once declared for the 2016 presidency have now dropped out of the race: 2 Democrats and 6 Republicans. That leaves us with 15 candidates remaining officially "on the books" at the start of 2016: 3 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Statistically, that means that 40% of the Democratic field has cleared out and 33.3% of the Republican field has done the same.

    I have been collecting the start and end-data for all of the campaigns all along and have reduced this kind of statistic into a simple table.

    First, all 23 declared candidates:

    [​IMG]

    The candidates you see highlighted in light orange have now dropped out. This chart is in chronological order based on entry-date into the race, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) being the first name on the list (because he was the first to announce) and Prof. Larry Lessig (D-MA) being the last name on the list (because he was the last to announce).

    Columns 3/4, 7/8 are probably the most interesting for our purposes. Column 3 lists the date of the announcement. Column 4 calculates the number of days before (but not including) Election Day 2016 that that candidate declared. Column 7 is the exit-date and column 8 calculates the date duration between columns 3 and 7 (not including the exit date itself), which is then the historical length of that campaign. We can see that up until now, of the candidates who have dropped out, former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) waged the longest campaign, 215 days long, although he was not really ever on the radar screen to begin with. In 2008, former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) was also a candidate for president and also completely ignored. He dropped out one month later and the press did not even take notice. So, who knows, maybe he already dropped out and no one took the time to even look...


    Now, here is a table only of the candidates who have dropped out:

    [​IMG]

    That table is in chronological order based on column 7 (exit date). I think it's fair to note that of the 8, the only candidate who was an upper-tier candidate and perhaps would have had a shot at his party's nomination was Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), whose fairly early exit from the race came as a surprise to many people.

    And here is a table of the 15 candidates still in the running:

    [​IMG]

    So, that's the status of this presidential statistic at this current time, going into 2016. You can find the above data HERE as well.

    I created this thread because it is highly relevant to the 2016 race and in the future, people will be thankful to look back and see what actually happened and when it happened. So, this is pretty cut-and-dried stuff and not much personal opinion needs to go into it on my side.

    However, were I to speculate as to who will drop out after the first four (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada), it seems to be that the bottom-tier of both parties would be the likely candidates: O'Malley on the Democratic side and Gilmore, Santorum, Huckabee, Paul and Fiorina on the Republican side.

    I can very strongly imagine Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Kasich and Christie staying in for a good while. I really do think that Bush will exit before May 2016 but don't think he is going to give up immediately. Both Christie and Kasich have at least a shot at being "one-note-Johnny" 's in their respective home-states and the top four, as long as they are relatively competitive in relation to each other, are likely to stay-in all the way until the RNC in Cleveland. But that's just my gut-feeling, my opinion, nothing more. However, let's not forget that the money-math also plays a role here: if a candidate is broke and going nowhere in polling and then also going nowhere in actual vote counts, then at some point in time, it will be time to close up shop, plain and simple.

    Feel free to speculate with me... and I hope this information is helpful to all members of PF.

    -Stat

    Derideo_Te Guno mertex perotista Gaius_Marius @branmuffin Alucard wolfsister77 - thought this stuff could be of interest to you all. :D
     
  2. Alucard

    Alucard New Member Past Donor

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    I could be wrong but I think Carson will drop out in early 2016.
     
  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    IMO Santorum and Huckabee are both "Hail Mary" candidates who will either drop out after failing in IOWA and/or SC.

    Christie depends on how well he does in NH and whether Bridgegate comes back to haunt him in 2016 when the indicted members of his administration end up in court.

    Carson is in it to milk whatever he can get out of it so as long he is making money he will stick around.

    Fiorina will drop out if she has to spend a penny out of her own pocket.

    O'Malley is probably going to drop out before Super Tuesday. Coming in "3rd" in the first 3 primaries doesn't mean squat when there are only 3 Dems in the race.

    Unless he places in the top 3 in the first 3 primaries Rand Paul will drop out citing the Senate race as a priority. (Yeah, right!)

    Bush-3rd, Rubio and Kasich are probably going to do some horsetrading and see if 2 out of the 3 can put aside their egos and come up with a feasible establishment alternative to T-Rump and/or Cruz. No, I am not holding my breath.

    Nice thread for speculating. Now let's wait and see how wrong I was. ;)
     
  4. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I do thank you. It is interesting stuff to be kept track of.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Oh, in this topsy-turvy environment this time around, who knows, maybe Daffy Duck will appear in an alien spacecraft, announce he is running and win IT!!!

    :D
     
  6. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    :roflol:

    If it waddles like a T-Rump, quacks like a T-Rump...

    :D
     
  7. mertex

    mertex New Member Past Donor

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    Great charts....it's so hard to keep up with so many clowns on the right! I'll be glad when it's finally down to Trump and/or Cruz against Hillary and we see Trump disintegrating into a ball of hot air spewing gibberish and insults, his only defense, which he does every time he gets behind the mic anymore. Such a buffoon, I can understand why his followers love him, they have so much in common! :)
     
  8. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    An interesting chart, thank you.

    The one thing that really stuck out was how short Scott Walker's campaign turned out to be. I had picked him as one of the probably front runners early on, because I expected that the Koch's would flood him with cash.

    But with the arrival of Trump, they've been keeping their power pretty dry. They certainly won't invest in Trump or Cruz, and I doubt that they'll bet on Rubio. In fact, I see them as sitting this one out, preferring to buy a few Congressmen here and there.

    I'm not sure what we'll see in the way of dropping out before the SEC primary on March 1st.

    I am sure that the GOP race will be down to one or two front runners by the end of the month.

    If Trump's lack of any real grass roots boots on the ground operation hurts him, as Ted Cruz has expected, Cruz may be well on the way to the nomintion by April 1st.

    However, it Cruz's outreach to evangelicals leaves the rest of the far right wing unimpressed, enough of them might go for the reality show candidate to make it a two man race.

    At that point, it will be a split, with the rest of them staying in to see which one will be the none of the above candidate, if there's a brokered convention.

    If Trump doesn't fade on March 1st, or is still viable after Cruz's evangelical push puts him in the lead at the end of March, Trump will have to start actually campaigning in the northern and western GOP primaries in order to keep his candiday alive. So will Rubio.
     
  9. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    And some were saying Trump would be out by Christmas. ...:roflol:
     
  10. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No matter how hard the left tries to push Democrat-in-Republican clothing Christie on Republicans, he's going nowhere.

    I'm not sure Kasich is out soon, though it seems likely. Rand Paul won't make it.

    Who to watch? Trump seems to be flaming out - slowly. How is he going to deal with a row of 2nd place finishes if that happens? Ted Cruz - who could come on like a freight train in the South, Rubio - who establishment Republicans see as their 2nd choice over Bush, and it is too early to fully discount Bush.

    The rest will vanish soon.
     
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Who, exactly? I never said that, even once.
     
  12. mertex

    mertex New Member Past Donor

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    He has enough gullible people to keep him up in the polls for a long while, but he will be out by Nov 7 for sure.....:)
     
  13. Uber Lib

    Uber Lib New Member

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    I've said that from the start, just not which Christmas... but the point being that he's not in this for the long haul certainly remains, he's merely playing everybody for fools and will leave them at the dance.
    the left can't thank Trump enough
     
  14. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    After the first three or 4 states I can see the red field dwindling down to 3 or out the outside 5. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio and possibly either Carson or Bush or both. On the blue side who is paying OMalley to stay in the race?
     
  15. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    Hey Stat ya done good, for a guy with a Germaniac screen name !!! Just teasing seriously thanks you are going to make us all better informed. You have any ways to make us smarter?
     

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