Make no mistake about it, Rubio was the biggest winner last night

Everybody expected a close race between Clinton and Sanders. There's no surprise here. Bernie didn't surprise with a big win. He fell a little short and over performed the polls by a couple of points. The betting markets have barely moved.

Trump had by far the worst night. He was up 5-8 points in the latest polls and lost to Cruz by 4 points. Even worse for him is the surge of Rubio, who outperformed expectations by 8-10 points, where some of those came at the expense of Trump. Barely losing to Trump he will suck the life out of the rest of the establishment's campaigns. There's been a major change in the betting markets between now and yesterday. Trump went from -200 to +200 and Rubio went to -120 to become the odds on favorite according to those who put their money where their mouths are.
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/politics-betting/2016-us-election-republican-nominee.sbk

Trump is very lucky he didn't finish in 3rd or his momentum could have dropped rapidly.

I don't think Cruz's victory will help him much past Iowa. He's probably a stronger candidate than Huckabee/Santorum, but Trump dominates the South. We'll see how this win effects his poll numbers in NH. If they stay near flat it indicates that he's going down the same path as Huckabee/Santorum. If he beats Rubio in NH then the establishment is in big trouble and it could still mean a Trump domination.

 

I think Rubio legitimized himself with his showing, but lets see if he can actually win a state. In my opinion he is running for the next election season, he will never win this one.

 

It's too early to call who will be the GOP front runner.

 

Even though I'm a Cruz supporter, I'll admit that there's a strong chance that Rubio ends up with the nomination. If he beats all the other establishment candidates in NH, many will drop out and throw their support behind him, and then the money will start flowing his way.

 

I'm a Rubio supporter, but honestly, I have no problem with Cruz either. As long as Trump doesn't get the nomination, I'm happy at this point.

 

As much as I support Cruz, I think Rubio might have the best chance to defeat Hillary in the general, which is most important. This is a critical election. It could decide the make up of the Supreme Court for a very long time, so conservatives need to come together no matter who gets the nomination.

 

This is exactly what I think is going to happen. Rubio looks the part, as well - and that does matter. Trump and Cruz come off either ignorant, arrogant, or sleazy. Rubio is the establishment guy and now the money will pour his way. I would probably be more comfortable with him over Hillary, to be honest. But Hillary over Cruz at this point. Trump is done for, I think.

 

I love how the establishment Republicans refuse to acknowledge that their party does not want them anymore. They want populism.

 

Yeah, Iowa always predicts outcomes. Just ask President Huckabee or President Santorum......

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I have no problem with Trump or Cruz. I am not sure about Rubio. He seems to close to the establishment.

 

Rubicon is a religion first, country... whatever kinda guy, that don't fly in America

 

Iowa matters, because it allows candidates to get momentum. The fact that Trump didn't win the race last night hurts the argument that he's invincible. If he won Iowa this might be a coronation. Instead, he's forced to stay on the right for much longer rather than gravitating towards the middle.

 

If Rubio again comes in 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire (even if it's Trump at 1, Kasich at 2...but even better for Rubio....Trump at 1, himself at 2)....

he will officially become the one and only Establishment-approved candidate. The RNC and GOP Big Money boys will tell Jeb!, Christie, Kasich to drop out and support Rubio.

Then, with some attacks on Cruz and Trump, the Establishment should be able to finagle Rubio the Nomination....over the screams and rants of most of the GOP Base (who still hate Rubio over amnesty)...

and then pray they can "salve over" the rift in the Party and convince the Nativists that "We can work with Rubio to make immigration reform tough....we CAN'T work with Hillary"....

and get them to put aside their hatred and fear of Rubio....and "hold their noses" and vote for him in November.

Then...naturally...if Rubio becomes President...he'll sell out the Nativists and pass the identical "Gang of 8" Bill that made him an object of scorn by a large hunk of his own Party....

but again, the GOP will bet on the short memories of the Fringe Right....so that Marco faces no primary challenger in 2020.


BTW, Rubio supporters may not like that cynical view of Marco and the Establishment and how they would back-stab their own Base.....but they won't MIND if it happens...will they?

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President Huckabee and President Santorum would agree.

 

It doesn't necessarily have to be the winner. If Rubio ends up being the nominee the Iowa caucus will be looked at as the beginning of the movement.

 

This is the type of thinking that I'll never understand. You'd choose the pro-life, small government, anti-Obamacare Rubio over the pro-choice, big government, pro-Obamacare Clinton, but you'd choose the pro-choice, big government, pro-Obamacare Clinton over the pro-life, small government, anti-Obamacare Cruz.

Does anybody choose candidates based on the issues anymore?

 

a mere bowl movement does not a kooky con president make, it just smells the same

 

I love how some republicans complain that Iowa is lousy at picking the eventual republican nominee, yet the last two candidates that the rest of the country has picked as the nominee both got crushed in the general. Instead of complaining about Iowa, maybe the GOP should listen to Iowa.

 

I do vote on issues, and if it was Christie or Paul or anyone else, I would vote for them over Hillary. BUT, Ted Cruz is a full blown sociopath. And not the meaningless insult sociopath label the left calls Bush or the right calls Obama.

Ted Cruz is a full blown sociopath - the type that would/could kill a kitten and dog without any consciousness. Everything about him is fake, disturbing, and glib. He seems to rehearse every emotion and there is nothing about him that is human. I don't trust or care for a full blown sociopath in office.