Super Tuesday nitty-gritty - info for everyone

I love to use "The Green Papers" as a resource, because they really are completely neutral and they just get the data out there and keep it clean. They were blogging long before it was cool to do so.

At this link:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Log/16Q1#2175

is the lowdown on what, where and when for tonight's electoral festivities.

In a nutshell:

The 2 "odd men out" contests:

1.) American Samoa - DEM territorial caucuses.
2.) Alaska - GOP presidential preference poll.

States for both parties:

3.) The South: Alabama (D and R primaries)
4.) The South: Arkansas (D and R primaries)
5.) The South: Georgia (D and R primaries)
6.) The South: Oklahoma (D and R primaries)
7.) The South: Tennessee (D and R primaries)
8.) The South: Texas (D and R primaries)
9.)The South: Virginia (D and R primaries)

10.) The Northeast: Vermont (D and R primaries)
11.)The Northeast: Massachusetts (D and R primaries)

12.) The (Upper) Midwest: Minnesota (D and R caucuses)

13.) The West: Colorado (D and R caucuses)


So, it's 13 "states" overall, but just 12 for each side. So, that makes for 24 presidential primary/caucus races to watch tonight, plus a small number of interesting Senate primaries as well. You can also see that the heart of the action in tonight's Super Tuesday, the epicenter of it all, if you will, is indeed the South. It shall arise tonight!!!

Most polls close at 7 PM local time, but not everywhere. Beware of states that cross over time zones, they always use poll closing times for the westmost time zone.

On the Republican side, Trump is leading everywhere except in Texas and maybe in Arkansas. In fact, he is so ahead, I fully expect that most of his wins will be announced right at poll closing time.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is leading most definitely in 7 of 12 races (I am assuming that American Samoa will go for her, but this is just a very educated hunch). Sanders is way ahead in one state, somewhat ahead in two others (maybe) and Minnesota is a big old fat question mark. The southern states, excepting Oklahoma, are likely to be called for Clinton immediately at poll closing time. Ditto for Sanders in Vermont. The rest? Well, wait and see.

To help serve as a baseline/benchmark series, here are the 2008 Democratic Primary results for all 50 states, DC and the Territories. And here is the same type of data for the GOP from 2012.

My suspicion that this will essentially be over as of March 15th grows stronger with every minute. After the 15th, neither Clinton nor Trump will be stoppable.

And that is the moment when talk of hung conventions goes the way of dangling chads and such... so, enjoy and

-Stat

 

I am inclined to agree.

The Washington press corp is starting to promote stories about how, after tonight, the task for the GOP will be to keep Trump from getting to 1237, essentially admitting that there is no path to victory for any of the current candidates except Trump. That would, of course, mean a brokered convention.

There is even speculation that Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan will be persuaded to ride into the smoke filled room on a white horse and preserve the honor of the Republcian party from its own fecklessness.

This is nonsense, of course.

There are something like a little over 800 delegates in winner-take-all states. So if Trump is at 450 on March 15th, he's effectively across the finish line.

 

Anything is possible.

I am not dismissing any scenario, yet.

If Trump gets the nomination, I would say there is about a 50/50 chance that the GOP establishment will back a 3rd party bid.

Better to lose the election than to support a candidate that has to think about it before repudiating the KKK.

 

Yes, anything is possible.

And, I certainly hope that leaders within the GOP have the integrity to stand up against the monster they created.

But this is the party that created Sarah Palin, built the astroturf tea party movement, and let the clowns take over their nominating process.

Sometimes courage is born of desperation.

But the presumptive nominee is the very sort of man who knows how to plumb the weaknesses of the feckless and mercinary crowd that has dominated GOP politics for some time now.

He will be offering his adminstration up for sale behind closed doors the moment he comes close to 1237 delegates.

I don't think I can even begin to underestimate how truly dangerous Donald Trump really is.

 

You should probably move to Canada if he wins, I hear he is coming for the liberals first born.

 

Trump is an existential threat to the future of the United States of America as a democracy, and as a world power.

 

No he is not, he is the one that will save America.

 

Wow, I can finally agree with you on something.

Well done.

 

The "KKK issue" will be as dead as Abe Lincoln before you can say "next week".

 

Hillary will persevere!

 

for the K street boyz and gyrlz I am sure he is green kryptonite

 

Hillary Clinton is VASTLY outperforming her polling margins in GA, TN, TX, VA and AL.

Currently, in GA, she is at around 77%. In VA, she is at 64%, she is at 81% in Al, 69% in TN and 68% in TX.
Those are enormous toplines and they also mean blowout margins. None of the polling showed her doing this well in any of those states.

Her support is broader and deeper than people want to admit. Once again, the numbers tell their own story.

Clinton is also ahead in Oklahoma, where polling showed Sanders ahead.

Arkansas will be called for Clinton at 8:30 PM and I bet she will be at 70%, at least for a while.

 

Coming from an Obama supporter this is a laughable claim.

 

Clinton is now at 70% in Texas.

 

The next question is whether Carson drops out of the race tonight, or tomorrow. Kasich is doing considerably better than Carson across the board, when we are thinking about 4th place, which is not even a consolation prize.

Kasich is at 29% in Vermont, but still in second.

 

With 83% of the vote in in Virginia, Trump is still roughly 6 points ahead of Rubio.
I bet that Trump will end up winning 11 of 12 races tonight.

 

Interesting comment on the foul-mouthed serial polygamist by evangelicals:

 

Trump's tiny hands must be shaking in rage right about now.

 

I guess its time to look for a third party to vote for. Sigh...

 

He just won Virginia

Glad to hear Hillary is doing well with minorities. At least someone might come out for her.

 

Gee...you're really being a glutton for punishment tonight. I guess you didn't see that about evangelicals not really being all that crazy about The Donald.

"In a surprising rejection of Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr.’s endorsement, Trump has apparently finished in fourth place in Liberty’s precinct in Lynchburg, Virginia. Lynchburg’s precinct 302 voted for Romney over Obama by a stupendous 3,120 to 153 in 2012. Yet tonight, Rubio appears to have won it with 513 votes to 387 for Cruz (who launched his campaign there), 162 for Carson, and just 90 for Donald Trump.

It appears that the profane, casino-owning Trump just didn’t play so well in one one of the most famously evangelical Republican precincts in the country."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/


That might be very bad news indeed over the long haul.

 

And here is what such huge wins in Southern states does for Hillary.

Here are the current delegate estimates from Politico:

Tennessee: Clinton 43 / Sanders 13, +29 delegates
Georgia: Clinton 68 / Sanders 21, +47 delegates
Virginia: Clinton 62 / Sanders 26, +36 delegates
Alabama: Clinton 33 / Sanders 1, +32 delegates
Alone, from these 4 states, that's a +144 delegate lead for Clinton, and Texas is not even called yet. I predicted that Clinton would be upwards of a +300 delegate lead from this night alone, so the numbers are on track to do exactly that for her.

Clinton is at 74% in Arkansas, no delegate estimates yet.

Clinton is still at 67% in Texas, a state with a huge amount of delegates.

- - - Updated - - -

I am quite sure that the networks will call TX for Clinton immediately at 9 PM, in roughly 5 minutes.

 

Do you think they're going to Hillary in the general?

He won with evangelicals in GA, btw.

 

And sure enough, right at 9 PM, CNN called TX for Clinton and for Cruz.
This is the first non-Trump win of the night on the Republican side.

 

Oh...yay!

Still, Liberty University's home town? And after receiving Fallwell's "blessings," too?

That's a real shame, isn't it?