Trump's Path to 1237: POST NE Massacre

The fourth super Tuesday is over and it was a massacre. 17 bound delegates for Trump in PA, 28 delegates for Trump in CT, 38 delegates in MD, 11 delegates in RI, 16 delegates in DE. On the other hand Kasich got 5 delegates and Cruz got 3. All in all the end result of tonight is 110 delegates for Trump, 5 for Kasich, and 3 for Cruz.

Something else that is not reported on is that Trump and Cruz ran a slate of unbound delegates in PA. Trump's slate won 28 and Cruz's slate won 5.

Without the unbound delegates that are committed to him we have Trump with 956. Here is his projected path.

NJ - 51 - All the polls show him winning

NM - 10 - Proportional I gave Trump 40%

WA- 17 - Proportional I gave Trump 40%

OR - 12 - Proportional I gave Trump 40%

IN - 21 - Close fight with Cruz. I gave the state to cruz but some delegates to trump

CA - 94 - Current polls show Trump nearly sweeping the state. I project a more conservative estimate

WV - 34 - All the polls show Trump winning and PA has shown he can run a slate and win

I gave Trump 0 in each other state.

With the unbound delegates on his slate that brings Trump up to 1223. At least 10 PA delegates have said they would vote for the winner of their district so that gets Trump to 1237.

Time to board the train and say President Trump.

https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/2016/04/27/trumps-path-to-1237-post-ne-massacre/

 

I think its time for Cruz/Kasich to drop and for the GOP to unite before the primary.

 

But first we need some qualified and respectable U.S psychiatrists/psychologists to explain Mr Cruz that he is actually completely detached from the reality and lives in his imaginary world. Someone needs to tell him that a candidate who has 400 delegates more than him, 2.5 million votes than him is actually far ahead of him. Above all, Cruz lost in all 5 states with Republicans who declared themselves as very conservative. Very conservative Republicans voted for Trump over Cruz. A humiliating defeat across the board.

 

7 out of 10 Americans know better than to vote for the defective little tyrant.

 

I can only assume that you've referred to a sore loser Mr Cruz. As for Mr Trump, he's doing quite well. He's expanded his base beyond anyone's wildest expectations. He is on his way to get the highest total of votes ever in the GOP race. What can I say? The real Americans have spoken.Get over it.

Trump passes Romney’s popular vote total, likely to break GOP record

By Kyle Cheney

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/twelv...rump-popular-vote-record-222510#ixzz471DFjKnD
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No, I was talking about the national polling numbers on Trump, which indicate that seven out of ten view him unfavorably, or very unfavorably. Far higher than the unfavorables for Mrs. Clinton.

Although he has a lot of votes, he still has yet to break 50% of all votes cast by Republicans; and, dispite his bluster about a "rigged system" his delegate count is far higher than his vote totals would allow if all states awarded their delegate porportionally.

Donald Trump may well force himself down the throat of the GOP, but he will not be President.

 

This reminds me of all the talk about how Mitt Romney was going to win in a "landslide" against Obama in 2012 - and Romney was actually respectable! In November will we all be talking about how Trump got "*******ed" by Hillary?

 

We all know that polls have consistently been wrong the past several years so I take them with a grain of salt. For example, I have a hard time believing that women do not support Trump when he is wining their vote in most states.

 

Unfortunatly for your thesis there is no evidence whatsoever of polls being constantly wrong. Yes they can ccasionally be wrong although that is often the result of a failure of the media to provide the confidance limits of the data.

But claimng polls are consistantly wrong is just a form of ignoring reality because it doesn't reflect one's preconcieved ideas.

 

Fair enough, Court Jester. I shouldn't have used the term "consistently" but they are often wrong regardless of the reason.

 

Does the talk about Hillary winning in a landslide in 2016 remind you of the talk about Mitt Romney winning in a landslide in 2012?

 

I hope he can win the general, but honestly I don't see anyway possible. You guys are excited about him sweeping up delegates in states that he wont win in the general. I'm gonna be so pissed if my kids have to live with Clinton for eight more (*)(*)(*)(*)ing years.

 

The day after a Trump landslide and we have denial, bargaining, depression, etc..coming from the Trump haters..hahaha!

 

Who else can win? Cruz and Kasich cannot even win their own party....who is left?

 

Pennsylvania will certainly be in play, so will Florida. Trump did great in OH coming respectable 2nd, right behind a very popular governor.... There will be a major realignment and the contrast can't be more striking - Hillary being the epitome of the establishment and the old ways and Trump representing the new beginning and new era in America. It won't be boring, I can tell you that

 

Cruz is already whining about his huge loss last night....lolz!

 

After I took a minute to look at your numbers, this is what I came up with. As I have told the folks at my work for the past two month, I don't see a way Trump is not the nominee.

NJ - 51 - All the polls show him winning

Winner take all so this seems correct.

NM - 10 - Proportional I gave Trump 40%

Seems fair. Although rounding rules are not known in this state, so it leaves wiggle room. So Trump could get anywhere from 6-12 here. Also, there has not been a poll here since Feb. that I can find. In that poll, Trump had 24%, Cruz had 25%, Kasich had 4%, Rubio had 19% The rest were either undecided or Bush/Carson 5%/6%

WA- 17 - Proportional I gave Trump 40%

Another unknown state, with no real polling. 14 delegates go to the winner, the rest are based on district. So either Trump gets 34, or Trump gets 10.

OR - 12 - Proportional I gave Trump 40%

Last poll I found was in May of last year, so no real numbers to go on. But 40% is reasonable. So Trump could get between 8 and 16

IN - 21 - Close fight with Cruz. I gave the state to cruz but some delegates to trump

No way Trump gets 21. The way Indiana rolls, Trump either gets 9 or he gets 45. 30 delegates go to the state wide winner and 27 are split based on district. So you either win big, or lose big. Trump wins 21 district delegates, that would mean he won the state as well so he would end up with 51. I don’t see that happening, but it is possible.

CA - 94 - Current polls show Trump nearly sweeping the state. I project a more conservative estimate

Hard to tell with CA being a very big and diverse state, but Trump has done better in blue states than in red ones. I would say between 85 and 100

WV - 34 - All the polls show Trump winning and PA has shown he can run a slate and win

I only found one poll from Feb. but Trump had a 20 point lead with Carson still in the race. However, delegates are chosen by district. If Trump sweeps, he could get 34, but he might lose a district and end up with 31.

So Trump high end: 1244, Low end: 1156. Even at 1156 I would be surprised if the unbound delegates didn’t push him over the top.

 

Trump is 18-27 points ahead in three latest California polls. A huge lead like that virtually guarantees that the candidate will sweep the overwhelming majority of CDs, if not all of them.

Unless polls are wrong or his support will collapse between now and June, he is looking at 130 delegates or more in CA alone.

But even 100 CA, 51 NJ and 34 WV delegates will get him to 1150, plus whatever he gets in IN, NM, WA, OR, plus 33 PA delegates are committed (not bound) to vote for him.

 

I think he'll get the independent vote and a lot of democrats as well.

 

I think most every expert prediction has failed this year

It looks increasingly likely that the voters will have to choose between trump and Hillary
And we can only speculate how that election....or the governing result will materialize
It seems our country faces"interesting" times.... Gawd help us

 

Excuse me, get off the PCP for a moment, and realize its only the primary. What happens in the primary and the general election are completely different animals.

A USA Today poll shows in a GE matchuip, Clinton beats Trump by 11 points, and this was conducted yesterday.

In a NBC/WSJ Pennsylvania poll, Clinton crushes Trump by 15 points.
New Hampshire, Clinton beats Trump by 19 points.
New Jersey, you know where Chris Christie lost all credibility by endorsing Trump, Clinton crushes Trump by 19 points.
And Maryland, oh this is sweet, Clinton sweeps Maryland with a 33 point lead over Trump.
What does this prove?

Clinton owns the New England area.

The withdrawal might cause some headaches, but deal with it Tsuke, we're getting a Madam President. Swallow the bitter pill.

 

those polls are too far out. Everyone 6 months ago was saying trump wouldnt even file. Dont worry we will make america great for you too.

ps the cute anime chick there is supposed to lower your blood pressure

- - - Updated - - -

if you compare vote totals clinton was only 30k ahead in PA 10k in DE and 40k in CT.

If its that close now it may be in play for the general.

 

That was just from earlier this week, and the latter half of last week. Check out RCP, and stop taking what Fox says for truth.

 

ya. too far from november. the first serious polls on this matter will be around a month after the conventions when both parties settle down.

 

It will likely only be four more years since her "*******ing" of Trump in the General will prove that this is not the Amerikkka of the 1950s. The GOP can then go back to nominating respectable candidates who understand the times. Clinton will be as easy to beat in 2020 as she is now, assuming she isn't running against a self-promoting imbecile.