First Poll since Trump Admitted Sexually Assaulting Women... Hillary up 11 pts!

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by akphidelt2007, Oct 10, 2016.

  1. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

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    And what should those percentages be, in your opinion?
     
  2. MrNick

    MrNick Banned

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    Obama is no Hillary.... At least Obama had some sort of support and WAS drawing 10,000-20,000 people to his events - Hillary can't even fill a high school gym...

    Trump is drawing 10,000-20,000 per event.

    I don't care about polls when in actual reality I'm seeing Trump supporters everywhere..

    Hillary is going to lose.

    I have Trump beating Hillary 40 to 35 in the popular vote.

    I have Trump winning the swing states and Hillary against the wall on several traditionally blue states. It's possible Trump can take a state democrats thought was a lock for them...

    Lets not forget that Clinton basically alienated Bernie Sanders supporters - she screwed herself doing that.....

    Hillary is done - zero chance she wins.
     
  3. MrNick

    MrNick Banned

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    Ideally it should be equal when polling but the problem is there are a lot of people that aren't republican or democrat, but still the swing between people that identify republican or democrat is still 7 points which makes the poll (like all polls) flawed... The data is useless.....

    That 7 points is enough to just take those 7 points from Hillary based on data alone.

    Look, polls are useless - regardless of what the poll is about. Polls are used to promote ideas NOT gauge opinions...... Every pollster learns this on day one.
     
  4. The Mello Guy

    The Mello Guy Well-Known Member

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    The only thing there is zero chance of is ever seeing you on this forum if he loses.
     
  5. akphidelt2007

    akphidelt2007 New Member Past Donor

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    I know you are a Trump supporter and education is not your strong suit... but if Hillary was winning, why would the poll not show a difference between democrats and republicans? Lmao.
     
  6. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

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    Why should it be equal? What evidence do you have that Democrats and Republicans make up equal shares of the population?

    I don't know if you're aware of this, but many analyses of political polls have shown that they do actually have predictive power. You throw out the garbage partisan ones, and what's left do correlate with actual results. As sites like FiveThirtyEight have demonstrated.

    So let's see, who should I believe ... empirical evidence, or your personal fantasies? A toughie, for sure....
     
  7. MrNick

    MrNick Banned

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    That isn't true at all... However even if it was true that doesn't explain the (*)(*)(*)(*)ing 7 point difference in polling.

    If it even matters - both the DNC and the RNC are dead after this election....

    Libertarianism is going to be the new party and I wouldn't be shocked to see the establishment elitist republicans and democrats merge....
     
  8. MrNick

    MrNick Banned

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    57% of the population isn't (*)(*)(*)(*)ing democrat - if that were the case democrats would have won every election.......

    I would say that 30% of the voting population are "registered" democrats and 30% are registered republicans and the other 40% of voters are "independents" weather it be libertarian, socialists, communists or whatever.....

    Independents are overwhelmingly supporting Trump...... Sanders supporters are supporting Trump for Gods sake, and 99% of them aren't voting for Hillary - they're voting Johnson or Stein which HURTS Hillary.....
     
  9. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    I will not be foolish enough to deny that Hillary may indeed be ahead but I feel this is an emotional reaction to the release of the tapes. This blurb is just that a one poll blurb!
     
  10. REPUBLICRAT

    REPUBLICRAT Well-Known Member

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    lol Yeah okay.
     
  11. pol meister

    pol meister Well-Known Member

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    It's the other around. The LAT poll is the reality, and the others won't catch up with it, because they don't represent reality. Today's 7-day rolling average, which includes two days of post video mania, shows Trump up by 3.1%, actually gaining some ground in today's poll. So even if we discount the LAT poll by a full 6%, Trump would still be down by only 2.9%.

    http://cesrusc.org/election/

    But you guys go ahead and keep relying upon those double-digit outliers if that's what makes you feel good.
     
  12. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

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    Er ... nobody is saying 57% of the population is Democrat. The poll under discussion shows 43% Dem or leaning Dem.

    And those percentages come from where? Your butt?

    Would it be too much to ask you to cite a source for your information?
     
  13. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    Seriously think about it! That is about likley voters. I am not convinced that Trump followers are all mist likley voters. They are to a large part historically not usual voters but since they are the Orange KoolAid drinkers they will vote this time. If Hillary wins it will be closer than people think in the nationwide raw vote but maybe as high as 12 to. 16 electoral votes .
     
  14. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

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    I see you've abandoned any pretense of impartiality. You have decided to cling to the ONE POLL that has consistently shown a Trump lead, and dismiss EVERY SINGLE OTHER POLL as an outlier.

    That's pretty sad, actually.
     
  15. MrNick

    MrNick Banned

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    I'm not the one pushing polls that give Hillary a 7 point advantage right off the bat and pushing it as evidence Hillary is going to win.

    If anything these polls show Trump is up SO MUCH that these polling agencies need to target and use bias to PROMOTE Hillary...

    Polls is all you have - biased polls.....

    If Hillary stood a chance I would actually discuss it but she doesn't....... Right now Hillary is Trumps punching bag...

    Of course in a month we will have the actual national poll and Trump will be the next president of the United States.
     
  16. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    I find it shocking that some people actually think Trump is winning. It is amazing. It is just flat out denial of the facts.
     
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Lemme give you a hint. The same answer we Jews get when we ask when the Messiah is going to arrive...
     
  18. MrNick

    MrNick Banned

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    I've done so much polling I have the experience to gauge "die hard" democrats and republicans. 30/30 is pretty accurate.

    And yes, these polls automatically gave Hillary a 7 point advantage and they only polled 1,000 people.... This is nothing new tho. I have said several times over these last few months that Hillary has been gifted 10 points in any poll right off the bat..

    None of it matters considering society reflects the exact opposite of what these polls reflect.

    I have never seen a Hillary yard sign - not one - and I live in a very racially diverse community... That says a lot about this election. Sure, in the last couple of elections I have seen plenty Obama signs, Romney signs, McCain signs......

    These polls contradict what I see in the real world..... Oh yeah and that 7 point advantage.
     
  19. pol meister

    pol meister Well-Known Member

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    What makes you think the NBC poll is impartial? Do you really think Hillary is ahead by 11 to 14 points? Do you actually take the NBC poll at face value?

    I happen to think the LAT poll has an impartial methodology, which is more than I can say for the NBC poll. Even so, I actually do discount the LAT poll by up to 6%, which is why I think Trump is currently anywhere from 3% down to 3% up. If I were you, I'd start assigning about a 10% discount or more to the NBC poll; otherwise, you stand a significant risk of looking pretty foolish on election day.
     
  20. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

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    It DID come from your butt! Awesome!

    According to imaginary numbers pulled out of your butt...

    Which is completely irrelevant, as I've pointed out. That's not opinion; it's math. The fact that you don't know this strongly undercuts your "I used to do polling" claim, as well as any claim to special expertise in this area.

    I see. So your one-person slice of the world doesn't have much Hillary in it, so therefore the polls must be wrong. Got it.

    Do you know the difference between anecdote and data?
     
  21. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    Just curious as to where you get the parameters used by NBC/WSJ polls.
     
  22. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    You can weigh factors such as the percentage of Republicans or Democrats.
     
  23. raytri

    raytri Well-Known Member

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    If you saw my first post in this thread, you would see that I said it is almost certainly an outlier, and anyway one shouldn't put much weight on a single poll.

    That's why I follow the average. An outlier like the NBC/WSJ poll balances out outliers like the LAT poll. You can include both, along with all the others, and get a decent picture of the state of the race.

    Yay for you. Yet EVERY SINGLE OTHER POLL disagrees with it. What's more likely -- that your single poll has something wrong with it, or that EVERY OTHER POLL is wrong?

    The LAT poll is unusual, in that it polls the same group of people over and over. That's useful for measuring trends within a fixed population -- you can be sure that any changes are real, not just sampling differences or error.

    But it also means the LAT put together its sample population once, at the beginning of the polling period. If they made any sort of mistake in assembling that sample -- say, have their Dem/Rep split wrong, or have overweighted their likely voter screen -- that mistake will never get fixed. Indeed, that's the MOST likely explanation for the LAT being a consistent outlier -- there is something different about the makeup of their sample that is throwing their results off.

    Could the LAT be right and everybody else is wrong? Sure. But that's not very likely.

    Averaging polls does the discounting for me. Outliers are automatically discounted because they are outliers -- other polls don't replicate their results.

    Your method is full of all sorts of selection bias. You choose the polls you like, and choose the discounting percentage for each of them. So you can tailor the results to be anything you want. No thanks.
     
  24. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It NBC polls were anything but worthless Trump would not be the Republican nominee.

    Polls now just means corporate propaganda lies.
     
  25. CJtheModerate

    CJtheModerate New Member

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    Party Identification: 49% Democrat, 44% Republican (as of September 2016)

    2012 Turnout: +6% Democratic
    2008 Turnout: +7% Democratic
    2004 Turnout: Even
    2000 Turnout: +4% Democratic
    1996 Turnout: +5% Democratic
    1992 Turnout: +3% Democratic
    1988 Turnout: +2% Democratic
    1984 Turnout: +3% Democratic
    1980 Turnout: +15% Democratic
    1976 Turnout: +15% Democratic

    I couldn't find any data from before 1976, but you get the picture.
     

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