The US Military only has a 7% chance of defeating ISIS!

They like any population are all different.

But there are many who can be a real pain in the ass.

AA

 

Yes, and they recruit through social media so it's dam near impossible to stop them from growing, as opposed to an actual enemy military and conventional war.

 

There are very good plans to deal with this.

It is all about Political Will.

We are more than capable of wiping ISIS out as well as making anyone reading ISIS PR on the internet think 10 times before enlisting.

The problem is we need the Politician's to LISTEN to those of us who KNOW how to get it done!!

AA

 

The US Military only has a 7% chance of defeating ISIS!
→ AboveAlpha, et al,

We have to be careful that, in an effort to eradicate the Jihadist, Deadly Fedayeen, Hostile Insurgents, Radicalized Islamist, and other problematic Asymmetric Fighters, that we do not destroy the very thing we are trying to defend.

(COMMENT)

There is a grave difference between what the Legislative Branch is willing to usher into law, Executive Branch is willing to do, and what the Supreme Court is willing to allow → and that which the constituency --- people --- intended. Just as there is a difference with the preference held by the Captains of Industry.

America has a habit of attempting to use the one-shoe-fits-all strategy. In the evolution, we have often lost the ability to use rational common sense and replaced it with strict compliance thinking.

Relative to being "capable of wiping ISIS out;" it easier to eradicate people than it is to eradicate an idea or a cause. Don't become the very essence of the thing you are eradicating.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

Defeating ISIS militarily is a fool's errand IMO. If we want to destroy ISIS then it needs to be done via social media. All that bombing has ever accomplished is to strengthen the resolve of those being attacked. The internet is key to undermining and destroying the reputation and credibility of ISIS.

This is a new form of "warfare" that overturned governments in the Arab Spring. Or, to be more accurate, it is the new form of engaging in a propaganda war that has real world outcomes.

The current powers-that-be do not understand what kids in school already know about the power of the internet.

If we are going to defeat ISIS it will be via the cyber battlefields and the weapons will be words. No amount of physical force can kill an idea. The way to defeat ISIS to spread the truth about them via social media.

 

The US Military only has a 7% chance of defeating ISIS!
→ Derideo_Te, et al,

Well, certainly --- social media is good ground in which to seek-out and engage ISIS (DAESH, IS, ISIL, etc); not necessarily the preferred ground or the only ground.

You have to remember that the leadership of the US is nearly always behind the intellectual power curve when it comes to such matters. Congress is dominated by the likes of John McCain (Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services) and the Lyndsey Graham (serving on the Armed Services Committee, the Appropriations Committee, the Judiciary Committee and the Budget Committee) --- having the academic credentials, but who's experience and training were forged in an era Vietnam and the cold war, when the US was a Super Powers with enormous influence and resources.

(COMMENT)

DEASH is a radical Sunni group on steroids. It is not so dissimilar to the Jihadist, Deadly Fedayeen, Hostile Insurgent, Radicalized Islamist, and Asymmetric Fighters that the US has engaged several times before around the world. Militarily, when confronted by a determined US Military Force, the hostile extremists lose every battle; --- they are a consistent loser. But they are very resilient. While there is no question that a piece of the hostile extremist eradication process has a military component to it, the military component is not sufficient (in and by itself) to defeat these types of threats grown out of the fog of frustration and despair. And in this perspective, our friend Derideo_Te, has hit the proverbial double-bull --- dead center.

Having said that, the US needs to back away (militarily and politically) from any engagement in conflicts where US involvement is questioned or challenged by the indigenous population. Even if the ruling elite of a conflict region solicits US military support, the concepts of "legal" is not equivalent to the concept of "popular support." No hostile insurgency can long survive without "popular support." If the radicalized hostile extremist can hide draw sustenance from the local indigenous population, then no amount of US military intervention can be successful with the US reputation remaining intact. Only when the local population begins to cut the support to the insurgency, can the US even think about the type and kind of support to render.

In this regard, social media is one of the avenues to understanding the wants and needs of the indigenous population.

NOTE: One of the very first things one must come to understand, is where DAESH is drawing money, food and supplies. If DAESH is drawing its logistical support locally, then there is insufficient grounds to support US intervention.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

You and I are on the same page here.

Military intervention WITHOUT local support is never a smart move. Look at what happened under Bush/Cheney in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Compare that to Bush sr's GW1 that did have local support. The outcomes are strikingly different.

ISIS, or whatever name the jihadists du jour are using, is nothing more than an international criminal terrorist organization with some military equipment. They want to fight US "boots on the ground" because that helps their recruitment and their cause. Using guerilla tactics makes it impossible to defeat them in a ground war.

So the only serious way to bring them down is to turn the population against them and that requires intelligence and propaganda and a long range strategy of containment and logistical strangulation of funds and recruitment.

But that takes willpower on behalf of politicians and as AA pointed out that is something that they lack in spades. Firing off missiles as a means to "wag the dog" and distract the media from questions about malfeasance is more likely to happen than a coherent means to defeat ISIS.

In some respects our politicians need ISIS more than they need it defeated and that is an unfortunate reality that none of them will admit.

 

RE: The US Military only has a 7% chance of defeating ISIS!
→ Derideo_Te, et al,

Well, this leads us to a much bigger playground than is generally associated with DAESH.

(COMMENT)

The activities of DAESH, as a Regional Threat, is a double-edged sword. In some respects it has had either a direct military impact on these aspects of Regional Stability -- or -- a political consequence that efforts Regional Stability:

• Kurdish Nationalism
• Iranian interaction with Hezbollah
• Quds Force (IRGC-QF) successes in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq
• Reduced Tensions between Regional Combatants​

There was a time, not so long ago, when someone asked about Middle East Regional Security, the conversation would immediately drop to the Israelis 'v' Palestinians conflict. Now-a-days you hear things like: "CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel says that Iran is the greatest threat to regional stability in the Middle East, and the U.S. should look to disrupt their activities through military or other means."

There is a shift in the focus from Israel to Syria.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

The warmongering never ends! /sigh

Using the military against Iran is the dumbest move that this nation could take at this point in time IMO.

Why that imbecile is head of CentCom is beyond belief. What exactly does he expect to achieve by destabilising yet another nation in the middle east? Just because only tool you have a hammer does not mean that every problem is a nail.

 

Seriously?
You have it all figured out - what the generals can't see....please call them!

 

Totally agree. Whatever happened to a carrot and stick approach.

 

I started a thread on that;

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...marter-way-to-fight-the-war-on-terror.506074/