Is Israel-Iran clash imminent?

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by trucker, Apr 23, 2018.

  1. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    This religious war was inevitable, but at least we can keep it to a regional war if all G-8 nations refrain from participation. But with the Haley's and Bolton's, I agree we might not be able to make such a wise choice.
     
  2. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If it were just Iran versus Israel it may be so that Russia would remain neutral but what has got this whole thing to this point is that Russia has told Israel it is not acceptable for her to fly in and bomb and kill her allies...not least because Russians are often in the vicinity. So, if Israel chooses this war, she is also choosing war with Russia and that is what she is saying.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...hreats-of-catastrophic-consequences-1.6027919

    Hezbollah and Iran in Syria are Russia's allies.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  3. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    It sure doesn't make sense for anyone to try and warn Israel against attacking S-300s in the possession of and used by Assad's forces. They obviously have every right to attack such systems that are used against them. If the Russians don't want them attacked, obviously they shouldn't give them to Assad. That just doesn't make sense.

    Israel should attack them en route, as soon as they're in Syrian territory and in range. :D
     
  4. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Israel is the little 120 pound guy that people tragically underestimate.
     
  5. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Nonsense.... if Russia directly attacks Israel there will be no Israel, it will be wiped off the map and Israel knows that.

    Israel will have nothing to lose, therefore there will also be no Russia either (at least no Moscow, no St Petersburg etc), no Teheran, no Damascus for starters. And Putin with mullahs and Assad know that just as well.

    It's not a good idea at all to mess with a nuclear power, even for a nuclear superpower. There is absolutely no way in hell Putin will try.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  6. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    I see geography and logistics are not your strong points.

    Neither Iran nor Israel have sea-lift capability to move troops.

    And even though Israel has recently purchased US tankers for aerial refueling operations, Israel still lacks the ability to strike Iranian targets.

    Keep dreaming though.
     
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  7. MVictorP

    MVictorP Well-Known Member

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    The era of Israeli air supremacy, when it could attack anything anywhere with impunity as soon as it please, is over.

    And with it, pretty much all of the IDF's offensive capabilities. It took more than half a century but Israel finally gets into the real world, instead of in the make-believe world they created for themselves.
     
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  8. MVictorP

    MVictorP Well-Known Member

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    How tough can be a force who did nothing but abuse disarmed, third-world mobs for decades? Fighting the weak makes one also weak over time. IMO IDF forces, far from being under-rated, are over-rated.

    Last time they tangled with Hizbollah they didn't look that good. And that was before Hizbollah was as battle-hardened as it is today.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  9. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If she wants to risk war with Russia that is indeed what she should do. If she does not want to risk war with Russia then she should not. As Israel's own people have been pointing out although it often happens that a country will threaten war if another country does some thing to it what Israel is doing is threatening war because of what Syria is doing in its own country. They see this as a war of choice.

    http://21stcenturywire.com/2018/02/18/syria-putin-makes-offer-israel-will-israel-refuse/

    Russia will be sensitive to Israel's security but Putin has told Israel that an attack on Iran in Syria is an attack on Russian security.

    http://21stcenturywire.com/2018/02/18/syria-putin-makes-offer-israel-will-israel-refuse/
     
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  10. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Borat. It would be Israel that is attacking Russia not the other way round. It is looking like Israel is considering doing what the US saw the better of a couple of weekends ago.
     
  11. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No people are forever saying that if someone does not let Israel do what she wants she will start nuclear war.
     
  12. 22catch

    22catch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't think this is happening yet. I mean Iran doesn't have anything near Israel measurable right? Little this and that in support of Assad.

    It's a very dangerous game for Iran to play. I think it's fake news any aggression. I say that because if Iran and Israel escalates my country the United States despite my personal wishes is hell bent on completing its longterm geopolitical goals of setting the entire region on top of its head. Look at how we refuse to leave Syria. Making up chemical attacks etc. The plan all along was toppling Iraq, then Syria and then Iran.

    Defending Israel would happen by the US if it escalated beyond a skirmish. We won't let Israel fight alone and Syria goes into a hole and hides, Russia goes to the UN and pouts and Iran gets blown up.
     
  13. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Like I said, if Russia starts a direct shooting war with Israel, it will escalate into a nuclear war within hours and there will be no winners, certainly not among Israel, Russia, Iran, Syria, Lebanon..... all these countries will disappear at which point your childish spin that Israel invaded Russia will be even more irrelevant and absurd than it is now.

    But like I said, Putin and Mullahs know that perfectly well and Putin will NOT engage Israel directly, his bluff and his thuggish threats notwithstanding.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  14. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We are talking here about Israel starting direct shooting at Russia by an attack on Syria
    Mattis did not see it as a bluff.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  15. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    LOL, we are not talking about it, you are spewing this insane nonsense that an attack on Syria is an attack on Russia which is totally irrelevant anyway, Israel will enforce its red lines in Syria and elsewhere and if Russia chooses to enter the hostilities on Syrian or Iranian side, most of its territory together with most of the Middle East and Iran will not be inhabitable for centuries. I doubt Europe will be spared either to be honest with you.

    Russia is correct about one thing, the consequences of its actions against Israel will indeed be catastrophic. So in reality Putin won't move a finger, he can bark but he can only bite an unarmed country like Ukraine or Georgia.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
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  16. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You keep blaming the wrong person. Russia would be on the defensive. What is bothering Israel is simply that it likes being able to roam into others air space bombing them at will. Russia was allowing Israel to do this but when she bombed and killed several Iranians recently Russia said enough. Apart from anything else she has been bombing areas where there have been Russians in the vicinity. Israel has also been destabilising Syria with her attacks. Russia has said enough. It will be sensitive to Israel's security needs provided she does not attack Iran in Syria/Lebanon or Iraq. There is no need for Israel to make an attack other than to show that she is going to take over all air space, even air space which Russia has control of. Try to put responsibility where it is. As I said Mattis did not see this as a bluff. Now who do you think people should trust more on military things, Mattis or you.
     
  17. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    1. Russia does not need to be on the defensive, no one will attack Russia first or shoot at planes with Russian signs etc
    2. Israel does not need Russia's permissions to do what it deems necessary.
    3. Israel will enforce its red lines in Syria
    4. If Russia retaliates, the consequences will be catastrophic and not just for Israel.
    5. If Russia chooses to be sensitive to Israel's security needs, it will remove Iranian troops from the Syrian territory. Anything short of this will be deemed "insensitive" to Israel's security needs.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  18. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    An attack on Iran or Hezbollah in Syria is an attack on Russian Security. Russia has prime supervision of the air space over Syria
    All countries need permission before going into another countries air space and bombing and guess what, no one would give it. You seriously believe that the US would allow Russia to come into its air space and bomb it. You are crazy.

    What you are calling 'necessary' is interfering in another countries air space and bombing at will and in that choosing to go to attack rather than even needing to for defence. I hear that you believe that Israel has rights that no other country in the world has but that is not so.

    Israel's red lines are that it can go into any Syria and Lebanon's air space and bomb at will. Given that this land is now held by Russia and Russia who previously was giving permission to Israel to do this has now said after Israel's attack on an Iranian base and killing of in total 17 people that it will no longer allow Israel to do this. You have a bizarre concept of how things work. Yes bullies can go over weaker countries and bomb them. That does not make it a right or legitimate. What you, like Israel seem unable to even think about is that Israel is just like every other country in the world and cannot do what it wants. Again red lines as you are talking about them are Israel's desire to fly into Russian controlled air space and bomb.

    If Israel bombs Syria or Lebanon Israel will be the one responsible for the consequences.
    ( I am going to sleep now)
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
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  19. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    -Israel will enforce its red lines in Syria
    -Israel will not permit Iranian troops on its borders
    -Israel does not need Russia's permissions for any activities outside Russia's borders
    -Your spin that an attack on Syria is an attack on Russia is beyond absurd
    -If Russia starts a shooting war with Israel the consequences will be catastrophic, including for Russia which will also be turned into a nuclear wasteland.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
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  20. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Israel would only use nukes if its survival was threatened. And it probably won't hesitate if put in that situation.
     
  21. Retroiboi

    Retroiboi Banned at Members Request

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    Like I mentioned earlier, Israel's nuclear-capable Dolphin submarines are a game changer. Iranian air force and military is outdated. They strength lies primarily with their missiles. Israel also has Jericho missiles that can fire nuclear weapons. Not to mention Israel's advanced missile defense system: Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3.

    A claim that Iranian missiles alone can destroy Israel makes no sense, due to Israel's own missile systems and submarines. Israel's German-built nuclear capable submarines are some of the most advanced in world. It would make perfect sense that Israel already has few of them armed with nukes, not far from Iran, and ready to attack as soon as they are given orders.

    Iran can inflict heavy damage on Israel, but it cannot win. Even if it takes Israel's runways out, Israel will still have Dolphins parked outside of Iranian coast ready to strike. Not to mention a barrage of Jerichos.

    Additionally in case of war, Uncle Sam is sure to send military aid to Israel. Europeans will probably stay out of it, but no way U.S. is going to let Iran cause heavy damage on Israel, because that country is within their sphere of influence.

    To sum it up, missiles cannot destroy nuclear armed submarines.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  22. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    The strategic equation faced by Iran, which doesn't represent nearly the quandary that those within Iran who are chasing a mirage assume, is between finding ways to escape Iran's predicament by reaching some sort of a realistic accommodation with the forces arrayed against Iran, or, alternatively, using the opportunity to redress the past mistakes made and bolstering Iran's capability to deter any aggression, including any nuclear attack against Iran. As I have suggested, I consider the first choice a mirage -- and a dangerous one at that, only serving to delay and impede the course Iran should have followed even before. While Iran had a good chance to find accommodation with the US until the start of the new millennium (particularly during the heyday of the Clinton-Khatami days), that train has come and gone. The sooner everyone in Iran realizes that and acts accordingly, not just in rhetoric but in action, the better.

    For me, the US and even the Europeans have already breached the nuclear deal they forged with Iran. That deal was always a fraud and that should be clear by now to anyone sitting in Iran. What Iran needs to do are 3 things that each require the kind of foresight, commitment and daring that unfortunately has been lacking in Iran's "consensus" oriented system of decision-making. The first is to assume there was no JCPOA and act accordingly, finding ways to replicate a secret program outside that system and be fully prepared to then withdraw from it (and the NPT) when the breach of the deal by the US and company is official. Iran has the infrastructure to have a serious nuclear arsenal rather quickly and while going down that route entails huge risks until it has been able to put that arsenal together, those same risks exist with interest even without Iran following that course. But Iran does need a window of time to do what it needs to do in secret and find ways to keep the secret from being revealed despite its porous and divided system of government which includes those with questionable foreign links. The second is for its principalist camp to shed their idea of imposing cultural and religious norms that are out of touch with current sentiments among a vast number of Iranians and focus on reducing the realm for such policies to designated areas, cities and places such norms would be more easily enforced and where those interested in such norms could choose to live in. This is important because it takes away one of the main issues that feed discontent among Iran's upper and middle classes, youth, and others who have been (and will be doing so in greater numbers still) focused on moving outside of the country and taking valuable intellectual and financial assets with them. Third, Iran needs to bolster its authority internationally, both in how it actually responds to attacks such as the one by Israel as well as how it interacts with states which are obviously plotting against it with the US, in order to actually reverse the tide of losing confidence in its currency. At the same time, it needs to undertake serious financial reforms, including coming up with a new currency whose value is pegged to the international price for energy (oil, gas, and nuclear energy in a formula that reflects that basket) and which is backed by Iran's huge energy reserves. Basically, when you purchase Iranian currency, it would be like purchasing the right to Iran's oil and gas reserves.

    If Iran does all of what I suggest, it would be in a position to handle the threats against it and could easily put Israel in its place in the meanwhile. Otherwise, though, the future for Iran doesn't look bright regardless of whether Israel and Iran go to war or we wait for bigger problems to be created for Iran in the near future.
     
  23. free man

    free man Well-Known Member

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    Iran problem is the corrupted leaders who drive the country into the ground.
    Irans gdp per capita has been declining for some years now and it is 5250$, which is less than it had been in 2008.

    Israel gdp per capita has, on the othe hand, has been growing all those years to more than 34000$.
    This is the whole story.
    The involvment in Syria has been bleeding Iran and their failed leaders have nothing to show for it, so they create an enemy to cover it.
    Now ask yourselves: can Iran afford going into a war?
    The simple and short answer is NO.
    It is all a smoke screen to cover up the failed leaders.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2018
  24. wombat

    wombat Well-Known Member

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    As a novice but very interested in this topic can I assume that when Israel has had enough of Iran's hate for them, they would make Iran an example to all the other Arab anti Israel states by the use of one nuclear bomb?
     
  25. goody

    goody Banned

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    I honestly think you're confused. Russia only threatened the west and western allies with retaliation if they were to use nuclear weapons against Russia's allies. A warning/threat beyond this would be unrealistic as it would be exceeding Russia's capabilities (to me the retaliation threat itself is also absurd). Drawing a red line with such retaliatory measures is pretty much turning the head away when non-nuclear power is used and that's exactly what's been happening. Russia's main purpose for being in Syria supposedly to protect Syrian regime from outside intrusions/attacks. That's what Russians have been telling the world. But they just watched America and allies rolling just as they did so when Tomahawks were hitting Al Shairat. The reason for this is obvious: Russia cares only about its bases and terrorists of Wagner company, therefore is showing a willingness to protect the regime only enough to keep its gains secured.
    So Israel being the strongest and most reliable ally to the west, will never be retaliated by Russia, ever, unless it shows direct and open aggression to Russian existence in Syria. And that I don't think would be something likely to happen anytime if Israel is provoked by heavy Iranian attacks to the homeland. Iran too acknowledges well the fact they are in Syria at their own risk and Russia only helps them by using its grand ole veto power. That's why Iran has brought cheap terrorist-fashioned SPAAGs to Syria to protect their proxy positions at vital spots because they know Russian S400s are all shut down by the orders of Moscow when IAF begin raids.
     

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