3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report Just In...

You put your stock in Hillary, no?

 

We approach this from different perspectives in that percentages and what not matter to you. They really don't matter to me. From my perspective what matters is that we always see these presidential races tighten up as the voting deadline arrives and then people finally have to make their decision. This is why -- for instance -- the press can promote someone like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to the absolute limit and beyond and yet on election day it is far closer in numbers than seem reasonable. Mitt Romney almost beat Obama and might have done so had he ever discovered a spine. Trump beat Hillary when by rights she should have won both the popular and electoral college vote. What matters is pretty much just the last couple of weeks of campaigning. I don't know why, but it does.

What we have during the last couple of weeks of 2020 is going to be truth teller Trump versus whatever Dem Party nominee that the Mainstream Media will be backing to the hilt no matter what. With all that said I still think that the economy -- if it remains roaring -- and the immigration issue will give Trump the win. But we shall see.

 

So much misinformation here, where to begin...
1. Trump's approval rating is going to appear lower than it actually is due to leftist derision. People will vote what benefits them, and Trump has done that.
2. There aren't really any obstruction or financial investigations that aren't just political distraction. The AG won't charge obstruction and financial is a pipe dream. The house's obstruction push has no teeth with a GOP senate, and as Trump stated, he has been audited pretty much non-stop. Have you ever gone through an audit? It's freakin horrible and insanely detailed.
3. Climate change or the leftist's wolf...a lot of people care, a lot of people are sick of hearing the cry.
4. The majority or somewhere evenly split do agree on healthcare, gun control, and immigration. These are the things that got him elected in the first place.
5. Most people don't hate the wealthy like the left's ideological base does, they want to be the wealthy. The truth is, the trickles might not be what was hoped for, but people will take what they can get, and the tax cuts have helped the majority of Americans. The irony is that the left is just as owned by big business as the right.

 

Nice reply. But the fact is that people are being TOLD by the Mainstream Media that their disagree with Trump on healthcare, climate change, gun control, immigration, taxes on the wealthy, and on his character . . . but nobody I ever talk to in the real world ever talk about any of that stuff. The MSM is as per usual carrying the political water of the DNC; and I'm going to discount that stuff.

 

The Obsessive HERO WORSHIP (courtesy of PF's RW Echo Chamber) directed at "Andrew Jackson" knows no bounds.

Once again, thank you for your kind attention and undying devotion.

Now, back on topic, "models" this early are a fool's errand.

Carry on.

PS--Let me once again thank you for your Eternal Devotion to Your Idol (Moi).

 

I'll buy the last two weeks. It was that time frame Hillary's lead in the polls dropped from 5 down to 3 with her winning the popular vote by 2 points. Hillary didn't pay any attention to her blue wall states, you're correct, she should have won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But she rarely visited them and never made it to Wisconsin. Trump on the other hit those states hard.

Two weeks out in 2012 showed Obama up 48-47, one week out it was Obama up 49-46 and the final tally 51-47. I personally think if Romney had hit Obama up on Obamacare he would have won. The reason he didn't I think was his Romneycare in Massachusetts. Romney was afraid that Romneycare would become an issue. In 2012 Obamacare was 49-40 opposed to Obamacare which Romney never attacked Obama with. 49% also stated Obamacare should be repealed vs. 44% who said no.

Romney did win the independent vote 51-48, but that wasn't enough to overcome the larger Democratic base. It was enough to narrow the Democratic Party's advantage from 5 points down to 4, that was it.

 

PODS trump will win because the Dems are too lazy to vote.

 

Perhaps you are projecting.

 

and in others news, hilary is predicted to win.

 

When should we expect to see this in the polls? Cause it ain't there now.

 

If you close your eyes, you won't see.

 

Right. So open yours and look at the economic data from 2010-2019 to see there hasn’t been no change in any economic trend since then. It’s been on the exact same unchanging steady upward swing.

 

I hope Trump gets re-elected, just to see the left commit mass suicide.

Jim Jones Juice for all the Creepy Uncle Joe supporters.

 

I agree, but as one other poster stated, it depends on who Trump runs against will be a factor too. The model predictions are interesting though !!!!

 

He gave himself a board ban if Hilary didn't win, of course he's on here daily claiming Trump lied.

 

As you said in a previous post, his oppenent and their popular status will make the difference, I agree 100% with that assessment. BTW, thanks for all the leg work for the info !!!

 

You're most welcome. I enjoy all of this.

 

LOL, I am glad you do !!!!

 

It is not true. So it demands no response.

 

Oh come one. GWB wasn't "exactly" the smartest tool in the shed, yet people voted him in twice, despite his lies about Iraq and turning the economy in the crapper. How much money did that idiot waist on wars? 3 trillion? The stuff he could have made in the US with that money. lol

And Trump is a smart person. He just lowers taxes, and the lack on income aint no problem. He just lends some trillions to make it work. He got no plan how to repay it. Eventually we're going hit a recession at some point. We always do. Not likely Trump will see that part as a president, so he doesn't care how much he inflates the economy by lending money.

 

It’s demonstrably true, and the data has been posted numerous times.

 

Trump could have 10% approval in the polls and your usual sources of misinformation and partisan agitprop would still come up with junk like this.

 

x2

It is the MAGA crowd who have been trashing such modeling and polls. Suddenly this one is to be believed?

 

Hahaha! Remember that Hillary is going to WIN the 2016 election.

 

I said well before the election ...

... and I still believe it.

Meanwhile we had other posters at that time swearing that they were Nostradamus and that Hilla had no chance of losing based on the modeling data. You see how well that turned out - which was my point all along; that you can't really depend on this modeling and certainly not this far out from election day. Funny how they came around to my way of thinking - although it's equally funny to make fun of them. I mean, later on in that very post I said Hilla winning was likely but NOT definitely, I knew Trump had a chance. I certainly wasn't gonna bet my house or I dunno, my PF membership on it like some others did - y'know, just as a random example.