Man-Made Global Warming Theory Takes Major Hit

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Josephwalker, Jul 12, 2019.

  1. ARDY

    ARDY Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not sure your point....?

    Do you agree that the earth has has a minimum of 10,000 years near constant co2?

    And do you agree that we are breaking out of that 10,000 year pattern?

    And if so, do you agree that SOMETHING significant is changing. (What ever the cause)

    And.... i was asking whether we know why the co2 is so dramatically increasing.... is it the ocean... like the original poster claimed? And if so.,.. what is happening to all the co2 emitted from burning fossil” fuels
     
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  2. Nathan-D

    Nathan-D Member

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    Below is a graph of Greenland temperatures (Greenland Ice Core Project) going back 50,000 years, loosely indicative of changes in NH temperatures which would be less. It shows warming periods over 100 year time-frames. Perhaps he means these warming periods? Greenland has only warmed by 2.5C to 3.5C over the last 100 years and the warming periods in the graph below show upwards of 15C over 100 years.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
  3. ARDY

    ARDY Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You seem concerned about the 10,000 year time scale
    Here is a timescale over 400,000 years....
    And co2 levels are still way off “normal”.... why is that.... the ocean?
    upload_2019-7-21_2-19-42.png
     
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  4. Nathan-D

    Nathan-D Member

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    If you look at the correlation between GCRs and temperature going back 500 million years, there is a good correlation (much better than CO2) suggesting that they probably do influence temperature. But there are other things that can change and seed clouds apart from cosmic rays, such as phytoplankton, grasslands, and particulates and aerosols released from volcanoes. Have these been eliminated for modern warming?

    [​IMG]
    COSMIC RAYS IN RED AND TEMPERATURE IN BLACK
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
  5. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Wiki has a good summary of this debate
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
  6. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    That explains your understanding of the report
     
  7. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Do you agree that there is no significant difference between our current rate of warming and the other 9 warming periods in the Holocene ?? There is nothing different about our current rate of warming than any other warming period in our current interglacial. The correlation between increasing CO2 and warming does not indicate causation. Is this increase contributing in a small way - probably but it's not possible to quantify it. The IPCC attributes all the current warming to CO2 increase ignoring history.
     
  8. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Wikipedia ?? Come'on man. BTW there is a sentence in the Wiki piece:

    What does that ^^^ tell you ??
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
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  9. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why was CO2 at 8000 ppm in the past ??

    Why are you ignoring our current ~ 10,000 year interglacial period ??
     
  10. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  11. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    By minimal I mean our percent of contribution to natural C02. It's a drop in the bucket.

    "Out of the entire atmospheric makeup, only one to two percent is made up of greenhouse gases with the majority being nitrogen (about 78 percent) and oxygen (about 21 percent). Of that two percent, “planet-killing” carbon dioxide comprises only 3.62 percent while water vapor encompasses 95 percent. And of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, humans cause only 3.4 percent of annual CO2 emissions. What does this all boil down to? As shown by the accompanying graph, not very much."

    https://www.dailysignal.com/2009/03/27/man’s-contribution-to-global-warming/to
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
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  12. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    You say 10000 years like you think that's a long time You need to stop thinking in human life terms and start thinking in earth existence terms. Ten thousand years is a blink of earths eye and means nothing. It's really no different than looking at climate last week and declaring that "normal" climate.
     
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  13. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And YOU need to start thinking in human terms. I assume you are human and thus deal with the same climate everyone else does. You can however just keep ignoring what is happening worldwide as you will probably not live long enough to be forced to accept the reality.
     
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  14. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Global warming is net beneficial for at least the next 2 deg C of warming which will take at least 100 years to occur. The costs which finally balance benefits vs costs are air conditioning based on today’s technology.
     
  15. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    When discussing human health conditions I think in a humans life span but a humans life span is meaningless in talking about what is "normal" for earth.
     
  16. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not when climate changes in decades vs. centuries.....that is what you ignore or cannot understand.
     
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  17. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    You mean like it did in the recent and preindustrial LIA period?
     
  18. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Nope...not only do we not know that we must assume otherwise going by our limited data. Whereas todays changes are real time documented and verified events that are seemingly getting more extreme. Not only are you ignoring what is happening you are making things up while doing so.
     
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  19. Nathan-D

    Nathan-D Member

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    There have been large temperature changes over decades before. For example, during the Bølling Warm Period “Northern Hemisphere temperatures increased by 4-5°C in just a few decades” (Ivanovic et al 2017).

    Extract from the paper:

    [​IMG]

    The current rate of warming is assumed to be only 0.2C per decade. Natural changes in the not-to-distant past have been much larger.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
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  20. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ther have always been regional climate changes....this is worldwide and has clear corelation to atmospheric change in chemical composition vs volcanism or solar output.
     
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  21. Nathan-D

    Nathan-D Member

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    You're saying that the Northern Hemisphere is "regional"?
    Correlation is not causation though and the warming could be due to changes in cloud-cover instead of man-made greenhouse gases.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
  22. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    As you clearly do not understand what I type, I will no longer bother.

    Have A Nice Day:)
     
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  23. Nathan-D

    Nathan-D Member

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    Oh, I understood perfectly. You said that regional changes happen all the time, but the Northern Hemisphere is not regional. Literally, it's half the Earth!

    Have a nice day, too. Since you obviously can't back-up anything you say here.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
  24. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What I actually Typed:
    "

    Ther have always been regional climate changes....this is worldwide and has clear corelation to atmospheric change in chemical composition vs volcanism or solar output. "
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2019
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  25. ARDY

    ARDY Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You are talking about two separate issues
    The above comment refers to the carbon cycle in which co2 is absorbed by plants, an then released when those plants rot
    And then re absorbed, then re released.... that is called the carbon cycle. Outside this cycle, There is a huge amount of carbon that has become locked away in coal and oil etc which is no longer part of the carbon cycle.... until we burn it.... then it is released and becomes an excess part of the carbon release part of the cycle.... and therefore accumulates because the carbon uptake part of the cycle is insufficient to reabsorb the extra added carbon..... this happens year over year.... we add a little extra carbon
    Now you have switched to a different topic... the fact that GHG are a small percent of the gas composition of the atmosphere... even with what ever gasses we are releasing.

    Yes, that is true. But the impact of something is not always decided on the relative quantity.... you can add some botulism to your meal... and even a small amount relative to the size of your meal will kill you....you could not go to court and tell the judge you are not responsible because there was just a little botulism in the meal

    GHG are the same.... the small amount of ghg in are atmosphere keep us warm.... and all things being equal, a little more ghg will keep us warmer. This dynamic was uncovered by a chemist 150 years ago....

    Yes.... the earth has been around for a long time, and has entered a relative stasis with everything just as it is.... but if you change anything.... even a small natural change in earths orbit, or a big volcano erupting...when a small part of our complex environment changes.... then earth searches for a new balance point.... just as it has done for billions of years. And earth WILL find a new balance point, and life will adapt to this new balance point.... but it will be a different balance point than we have become accustomed to....and it well be to a greater or lesser extent , uncomfortable for our progeny
    Again you are talking about the carbon cycle, which i discussed above. If 3.2% is added every year.... it can add up to large increases over time

    Sorry, i cannot get your link to open
    That said, i imagine what it will show is a trivial amount of warming.... and if the warming were to stop now.... that would be nothing to be concerned about..... but what scientists are saying is that warming will continue, and accelerate.... it will continue for months, and years, and decades, and even centuries.

    Small changes that accumulate eventually become big changes
    You probably would understand this if i proposed a 100th of a percent increase in taxes every day.... just a small and unnoticeable amount i think you will agree
     
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