GDP Falls to 2.1%

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by ronv, Jul 26, 2019.

  1. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Real GDP fell from 3.1 to 2.1% in the second quarter.
    https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross...arter-2019-advance-estimate-and-annual-update
    The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

    Is inflation back? And what will it do to the Feds rate cut plans.

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.
     
  2. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A deceleration of the economy was anticipated. While the 2nd quarter GDP of 2.1% was down from 3.1% in the first quarter, it was higher that Wall Street analysts expectations of 1.8%.

    "With today’s numbers, this should provide some relief that the next recession is not coming in a matter of days or weeks," said Steve Rick, the chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group."

    The Federal Reserve is unlikely to reverse its expected decision to cut the federal fund rate by 25 basis points next week.

    This report is solidly optimistic for the US economy. The outlook for the global economy is generally less optimistic.
     
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  3. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Looks like that 3% GDP growth is no easier for Trump to crack than it was for Obama.
    Personally, I'd rather have the moderate long term growth than the boom and bust that happens with an overheated economy.
     
  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    But for higher government spending it would have been 1.5%.
    That's an interesting number.
     
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  5. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I would tend to agree. 2.1% GDP growth is respectable relative to an apparent greater economic slowdown in China. US equity markets remain strong, mortgage interest rates are low at 3.75%.
     
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  6. RP12

    RP12 Well-Known Member

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    The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2019.
     
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  7. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    And the only thing that pushed it over 2% was excessive government spending!!!
     
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  8. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    Tax cuts were supposed to give a boost to business investments.

    They decreased by 0.6% in Q2.

    And we won't talk about the huge debt that Trump will leave behind.
     
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  9. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Rarely does the quarterly estimate change by more than 0.1% and is just as likely to go down as up. And is 2.2% the promised real GDP that was going to be achieved
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
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  10. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    US spending relative to GDP is actually quite stable and presently insignificant.

    "Government spending in the United States was last recorded at 38.0 percent of GDP in 2017 . Government Spending To GDP in the United States averaged 37.08 percent from 1970 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 43.30 percent in 2009 and a record low of 33.40 percent in 1973."

    GDP-govspending.png

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp
     
  11. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Then Bloomberg is wrong because that's where I got it.They also said GDP for 2018 was revised downward from 3% to 2.5%???
     
  12. ArchStanton

    ArchStanton Banned

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    If GDP falls to .5%, then we'll be back to Hussein Obama's 'new normal'.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If your economic outlook is political in nature you will most likely be disappointed. Government spending is and has been bipartisan in nature. While increasing deficit's are not desirable they are necessary to fund social programs and a strong military.
     
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  14. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Are the Democrats on board win his spending cuts yet? Are you?
     
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  15. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    So let's get the trade deals done, do you support those?
     
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  16. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    The tax cuts were supposed to generate money to increase spending on the promised infrastructure repairs etc which has not materialized.
     
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  17. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    nearly three years in and those "easy trade deals" have hardly even started. All Trump has done is alienate countries
     
  18. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Kind of makes you wonder if the Donald is diddling the numbers.
    It kind of sounds like the Donald may have diddled the numbers. Would he do that?

    Growth in the first quarter of 2018 was revised up to a 2.5% annualized rate from 2.2%. Second-quarter growth, which prompted Trump’s mission accomplished declaration, was cut to a 3.5% pace from a 4.2% rate. Growth in the third quarter was slashed to a 2.9% rate from a 3.4% pace. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was lowered to a 1.1% pace from a 2.2% rate.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-misses-trumps-3-target-in-2018-idUSKCN1UL1KP
     
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  19. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking for the thread that says China is in trouble because it's GDP dropped from 6.2 to 6.1 %.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
  20. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Except that social spending is beyond the appropriate role of federal government in my opinion. Yet it is about 2/3 of federal spending. Crazy.
     
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  21. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I am afraid you are mistaken. The short term tax cuts made by Trump were to stimulate primarily business by lowering capital gains taxes, reduced tax rates for individuals and additional child tax credits. It was also an incentive for US companies not to move more operations overseas. The tax cuts have been somewhat successful in that respect. It has also kept and created new jobs that would have otherwise left the country. Some so called "middle class" individual and families have complained that is was not enough but it should be noted that about 40% pay no federal income tax at all.

    Infrastructure was an entirely different spending plan,a frame work, for which 2 trillion budget was proposed. It hit a dead end in congress. The was never any consensus on how to fund it.
     
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  22. Mrlucky

    Mrlucky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I know you think America sucks and hope our economy will soon tank but I'm afraid it won't happen this year. We may see a mild recession in mid 2021. For now our economy overall is in very good shape.

    You will need to ask the Chinese about their economy. We only have estimates since they don't freely publish much in the way of economic data. What is published, cannot always be trusted since they are able to manipulate their currency.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
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  23. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    2018 real GDP is still 2.9% same as it has always been.

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

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    Uh, the highest annual GDP that we had under Trump is the same as the highest we've had under Obama. The highest quarterly under Obama is much, much higher than we've had under Trump. I'm not saying Obama gets the credit for what happened while he was in office, but anyone crediting Trump hasn't been paying attention to literally any aspect of the economy over the past several years. GDP was under the same basic upward trend under both presidents. Employment was under the same basic upward trend under both presidents. The "Trump economic miracle" is a pathetic myth duping only the most gullible.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
  25. Cubed

    Cubed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I thought anything under 3 was bad?
     

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