34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021

A friend of mine used to do weather forecasting in the Army and for some reason hated economists.

One day I asked him why weather forecasters loved economists.

He spluttered about how vile economists were, but I calmed him down:

"No, no. Economists make weather forecasters look good."

 

Can you tell me where the market will be in 2.5 years? Can you tell me what GDP will be in 2.5 years? How about what the unemployment numbers will be? Can you tell me what natural disasters, political upheavals, new inventions etc etc that will happen? Can you even tell me where the FED will have interest rates in 2.5 years? How much are you will to bet on your 74% within the next 2.5 years?

Crystal balls are not the stuff on which to base policy.

 

Yes well you can go to reports two years back and you'll see most economists pointed to 2020 as the year to expect the long expected recession

 

So 66% of economic eggsperts are saying no recession expected.....great news! Rock on!

 

Well you don't have to be an economist to know that we'll have a recession eventually. If they want me to take them seriously, tell me which is the first quarter that we have negative GDP growth.

 

The left wing media has done everything possible to hurt Trump. But the economy has been too good and nothing has worked . So their coup de gras is to drum beat up a recession which becomes a self fulfilling prophesy. People are brow beaten into believing a recession is coming so they stop spending money and cause a recession. This is the mainstream media's MO with Republican presidents, yet they fawned over Obama who had zero economic experience proven by their disaster of a health plan.

 

That’s a long winded way of saying you don’t agree with people who study the economy as a career.

 

Germany are fighting off a recession and the UK has begun to struggle, both nothing to do with Trump or America. It's a world wide problem, even China are suffering so it's a global slow down.

 

Because such prognostications based on pure supposition and conjecture is of little use to anyone. The question is are there signs in our economy pointing to a slowdown which could then fall into a recession. Answer no. At best that reflects the next 12 months before any recession would occur.

Now that is not saying I took didn't a more defensive position a couple of weeks ago, but that had to do with my sometime in the near future retirement and locking in capital. Went from 80/20 equities to 60/40. The 40 being what I would need for the first 10 years of retirement and the 60 beyond that when history shows solid gains in the economy.

But the question is, if this is on the horizon then which party do you want in control of government economic policy. The Republicans as in the 2001 recession or the Democrats as in the 2008 recession?

 

Three words, inverted yield curve

I wasn’t an eligible voter in 2001 so I didn’t care and can not compare the two.
Based on recent behaviors Democrats.

I am terrified what trump will think is a sensible solution if we do have even a small recession, much less a major one.
If his past is any example it’s “file bankruptcy, stiff employees and get sued for corruption or fraud.

 

The day after Trump won the election the economist Paul Krugman said that "Trump is the mother of all adverse effects" regarding the economy.

You got to take the talking heads on TV with a grain of salt and give them a snort of Louisiana Hot Sauce up their arrogant noses.

 

A number and a word, 2.5 years. Our economic indicators are strong.

It's called history and if you are going to be an informed voter then you should know some history and past results. And the recent behaviors of the Democrats are what they did before the 2008 recession. How did that work out compared to the Republican policies of 2000/2001 and that recession.

Well he can't file bankruptcy for the US government nor stiff it's employees, government are pretty protected during recession nor get sued. There are measures Congress along with the President can engage in and we have the two histories. Which would we want to repeat and which would we want to avoid?

 

Seven words: The yield curve is no longer inverted. Try something else.

 

An inverted yield is one of the most prominent warning signs of a recession.

Im not making assumptions based on policy of 2 decades ago.
Currently, I will stick with Democratic principles as republicans don’t seem to have any

I would like to avoid trumps policies, if it takes removing his entire party — so be it.

 

But does not trump all others no pun intended.

It's not assumptions it's historical fact, it's empirical data. We have the two recessions which each party in control over one of them. We CERTAINLY can compare the two and the results. But what Democrat principles will see us through a recession, mitgate the damage and help us get into a full recovery? Which candidates are even discussing it and what policies are they proposing to keep the economic expansion going while cutting our government spending and deficits.

Which economic policies are you talking about, domestic economic policies and why? What are the Democrats offering that would be better?

 

Is it expected to invert again or remain stable?

An inversion, regardless of its duration is a red flag.

 

You would be hard pressed to determine between Biden and Kruger who has been most wrong in their careers.

 

It is one anomaly in bond markets. A pair of Bank of America economists said in a recent note that the inverted Treasury yield curve is no longer a reliable sign of recession and actually what matters most is the level of the curve itself.

Fact is, we have a strong dollar. The Fed actually is flirting with inversion, likely because its policymakers see its waning predictive power in a low-yield, global environment. The Fed has the power to “prevent or quickly undo” an unwanted inversion.

The curve typically turns negative late in the business cycle when policy makers have overshot the neutral policy rate to slow above-target inflation.
We have had a long bull run but there is no immediate signs of the US falling into a recession.

Germany, UK and trade, politics can all trigger fear based recessions. MSM is a political tool to cause fear. As much as they may try, the conditions are not aligned for a recession soon and maybe not anytime in 2020.

Investors should stay informed and vigilant but should not panic like sheep out of fear.

 

Yup, you nailed it my friend... Here is the actual survey

https://files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/2f0b98b4-3c7e-47e3-ade5-9887542aa300.pdf

Scroll down to Figure 5

The OP does have a point, albeit indirectly.... The article should say "3 in 4 expect a recession before end of 2021"

Yes, Great News for the Don!!

 

Fools may panic and bail. Real smart - sell all now.

Maybe buy negative yield bonds and hope for interest rate cuts?

Recessions are natural market cycles. The sky doesn't fall even in the worst of them.

Pay off credit card debt. That should be done anytime but do it now if you are that worried a recession is just around the corner.

 

So the Dems are so confident they are going to win in 2020 that they expect a recession because of it?

Why didn't we just elect Hillary!!!???!!! lol

 

Yes, I believe you are correct.

What a tragedy for America (and other First World nations seeing the same dynamic)

 

I hope we're reduced to foregoing our morning latte' and croissants

 

Now more than at any time in the past 100 years, real property will be the difference between the haves and the have-nots. Not money (in quantities less than many millions), but land.